|
Strategic
Plan for the
Climate Change
Science Program
Final Report, July 2003
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Figure 3-4
from Annex C
(Graphics and Photography Source Information)
Figure 3-4: Schematic illustrating the estimated recovery of
stratospheric ozone in the coming decades. Observations show the decline
of global total ozone (top panel) and minimum values of total ozone over
Antarctica (lower panel) beginning in 1980. In the future, the amounts of
chlorine and bromine containing gases are expected to further diminish in
the stratosphere as a result of international compliance with the Montreal
Protocol and, in response, ozone amounts are expected to recover
significantly toward values observed in 1980 and before. The range of
recovery times shown is based on predictions of atmospheric models. The
model results differ because they have different assumptions about the
composition and meteorology of the future stratosphere. The research needs
as outlined in Section 3.4 address reducing the range of uncertainty in
ozone recovery estimates. More detail on the recovery of stratospheric
ozone is provided in the Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 2002
(WMO, 2003).
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