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Virol J. 2008; 5: 133.
Published online 2008 October 30. doi: 10.1186/1743-422X-5-133.
PMCID: PMC2590604
Modeling the effects of drug resistant influenza virus in a pandemic
Stefan O Brockmann,1 Markus Schwehm,2 Hans-Peter Duerr,2 Mark Witschi,3 Daniel Koch,3 Beatriz Vidondo,3 and Martin Eichnercorresponding author2
1Department of Epidemiology and Health Reporting, Baden-Württemberg State Health Office, District Government Stuttgart, Germany
2Department of Medical Biometry, University of Tübingen, Germany
3Swiss Federal Office for Public Health, Bern, Switzerland
corresponding authorCorresponding author.
Stefan O Brockmann: stefan.brockmann/at/rps.bwl.de; Markus Schwehm: markus.schwehm/at/explosys.de; Hans-Peter Duerr: hans-peter.duerr/at/uni-tuebingen.de; Mark Witschi: mark.witschi/at/gmail.com; Daniel Koch: Daniel.koch/at/bag.admin.ch; Beatriz Vidondo: beatriz.vidondo/at/bag.admin.ch; Martin Eichner: martin.eichner/at/uni-tuebingen.de
Received August 5, 2008; Accepted October 30, 2008.
Abstract
Neuraminidase inhibitors (NI) play a major role in plans to mitigate future influenza pandemics. Modeling studies suggested that a pandemic may be contained at the source by early treatment and prophylaxis with antiviral drugs. Here, we examine the influence of NI resistant influenza strains on an influenza pandemic. We extend the freely available deterministic simulation program InfluSim to incorporate importations of resistant infections and the emergence of de novo resistance. The epidemic with the fully drug sensitive strain leads to a cumulative number of 19,500 outpatients and 258 hospitalizations, respectively, per 100,000 inhabitants. Development of de novo resistance alone increases the total number of outpatients by about 6% and hospitalizations by about 21%. If a resistant infection is introduced into the population after three weeks, the outcome dramatically deteriorates. Wide-spread use of NI treatment makes it highly likely that the resistant strain will spread if its fitness is high. This situation is further aggravated if a resistant virus is imported into a country in the early phase of an outbreak. As NI-resistant influenza infections with high fitness and pathogenicity have just been observed, the emergence of drug resistance in treated populations and the transmission of drug resistant strains is an important public health concern for seasonal and pandemic influenza.