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Press Release 05-209
Model Predicts Colder Winter Temperatures in the East, Warmer in the West
Method includes data from autumn snowfall in Siberia
December 15, 2005
According to a model developed by atmospheric scientist Judah Cohen of Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER), Inc., temperatures during Dec., Jan., and Feb. will be cold in the eastern United States and warm west of the Mississippi River.
The largest departures from normal are found in the eastern Great Lakes (darkest blue) and in the Southwest (darkest red). Cohen's model uses El Nino, recent temperature trends and Siberian snow cover in Oct, as well as sea-level pressure anomalies, in its winter forecast.
For Jan., Feb., and Mar. (at right), the model shows cold temperatures in the Northeast, the Great Lakes, and the Northern Plains and warm in the Rockies and along the West Coast.
Cohen says regions impacted by snow variability differ from those influenced by El Nino, which is often used in forecast models. "The influence of snow cover extent has the potential to complement El Nino-derived forecasts, and to advance our understanding of climate variability and its application in prediction models," he said.
Read the NSF special report on Predicting Seasonal Weather.
-NSF-
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Cheryl Dybas, NSF (703) 292-7734 cdybas@nsf.gov
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