Explanation of Short-Range Guidance and Development

The mission of the short-range development team is to develop automated techniques for predicting weather elements 6 to 72 hours in advance. The weather elements include temperature, precipitation, thunderstorms, wind, clouds, ceiling height, visibility, obstruction to vision, sunshine, and snowfall.

Current Operational Products: text messages, graphics, GRIB and BUFR links

• AVN MOS (6-72h) Products
• Eta MOS (6-60h) Products
• NGM MOS (6-60h) Products
  

Explanations of the Current Products:

AVN-Based MOS is currently available for projections of 6 through 72 hours in advance, for about 1380 sites in the United States, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

• Table of AVN-based MOS weather element definitions
• Table of proposed forecast projections for the AVN-based MOS guidance

Eta-Based MOS is currently available for projections of 6 through 60 hours in advance, for about 1250 sites in the continental United States.

NGM-Based MOS is available for over 600 sites in the contiguous U.S. and Alaska for forecast projections from 6 to 60 hours.

• Detailed text description of the NGM-Based MOS system
• Interpretation of the NGM-Based MOS Message ---The Green Card
  

Documentation and References:

• Our current work status is outlined in our Quarterly Progress Report.
• For more information on the NGM and AVN models, visit NCEP's Environmental Modeling Center.
• Current research articles
• Technical Procedures Bulletin 408: NGM-Based MOS Guidance the FOUS14/FWC Message, available from the Office Of Meteorology.
• Related Research Papers
• MOS Frequently Asked Questions

Research and Development Activities - Future Products: