Projections and Mitigation Costs

EPA has conducted economic analyses on key sources of high global warming potential gases (high GWP gases). These sources include HCFC-22 production, electric utilities, magnesium, aluminum, semiconductor manufacturing. In addition to these sources, high GWP gases are used as substitutes for ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). These include for refrigeration and air conditioning, solvents, foams, aerosols, and fire extinguishing. For many of these sources, opportunities exist to reduce emissions cost-effectively. These options include reusing or recycling the gas, reducing use of the gas or using the gas more effectively. EPA’s high GWP voluntary programs and EPA’s ODS substitutes program assist companies in identifying these cost-effective reductions.

Emission Estimates With and Without Voluntary Programs

Figure 1 shows the historical and projected U.S. emissions of high GWP gases from man-made sources. The graph shows emissions with and without the impact of the high GWP gases voluntary programs designed to reduce emissions of these gases. For more information on cost-effective technologies and management practices for high GWP gases, visit EPA high GWP Voluntary Programs. For reductions in substitutes for ozone-depleting substances, visit the EPA’s ODS substitutes program.

Figure 1

MMTCO2E = Million Metric Tons Carbon Dioxide Equivalent
Source: US Emissions Inventory 2002: Inventory Of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions And Sinks: 1990 - 2000; Climate Action Report (2002) Draft Emissions and Projections of Non-CO₂ Greenhouse Gases for Developing Countries: 1990-2020 (PDF, 73 pp., 1.3MB ) .

Future Emission Projections and Mitigation Costs

The following report presents future U.S. emission projections by source sector as well as the results of extensive benefit-cost analyses conducted on the opportunities (technologies and management practices) to reduce high GWP gas emissions. For analysis of high GWP gas mitigation costs outside the U.S., see International Analyses.

Final Report on U.S. High Global Warming Potential (High GWP) Emissions 1990-2010: Inventories, Projections, and Opportunities for Reductions. This report has three objectives. First, it presents EPA’s current forecasts of U.S. high GWP gas emissions through 2010 under a “business-as-usual” scenario that assumes no further actions are taken to reduce emissions. Second, the report uses available cost and technical data to describe those technologies and practices that can reduce these emissions from the major emission sources. Third, the report estimates the cost of reducing high GWP gas emissions for each major source and assembles these costs into a marginal abatement curve.

Download (PDF) separate sections of the final report:

1. Cover (PDF, 3 pp., 110 KB)
   Acknowledgment (PDF, 1 page, 8KB)
   Table of Contents (PDF, 2 pp., 10KB)
2. Introduction (PDF, 15 pp., 83KB)
3. Cost and Emission Reduction Analysis of HCFC-22 Production in the United States (PDF, 6 pp., 25KB)
4. Cost and Emission Reduction Analysis of SF₆ Emissions from Electric Utilities in the United States (PDF, 5 pp., 22KB)
5. Cost and Emission Reduction Analysis of SF₆ Emissions from Magnesium Production and Parts Casting in the United States (PDF, 7 pp., 31KB)
6. Cost and Emission Reduction Analysis of PFC Emissions from Aluminum Smelters in the United States (PDF, 8pp., 32 KB)
7. Cost and Emission Reduction Analysis of PFC, HFC, and SF₆ Emissions from Semiconductor Manufacturing in the United States (PDF, 9 pp., 52KB)
8. Cost and Emission Reduction Analysis of HFC Emissions from Refrigeration and Air Conditioning in the United States (PDF, 21 pp., 98KB)
9. Cost and Emission Reduction Analysis of HFC and PFC/PFPEs Emissions from Solvents in the United States (PDF, 11 pp., 61KB)
10. Cost and Emission Reduction Analysis of HFC Emissions from Foams in the United States (PDF, 17 pp., 69KB)
11. Cost and Emission Reduction Analysis of HFC Emissions from Aerosols in the United States (PDF, 7 pp., 37KB)
12. Cost and Emission Reduction Analysis of HFC and PFC Emissions from Fire Extinguishing in the United States (PDF, 6 pp., 25KB)
13. Appendix A: Methodology for Estimating HFC and PFC Emissions from Substitution of ozone-depleting Substances (PDF, 7 pp., 31KB)
14. Appendix B: List of Abbreviations (PDF, 2 pp., 5KB)

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