Volume 10, Number 5, May 2004

Seasonal Forecast of St. Louis Encephalitis Virus Transmission, Florida

Jeffrey Shaman,* Jonathan F. Day,† Marc Stieglitz,* Stephen Zebiak,‡ and Mark Cane*
*Columbia University, New York, New York, USA; †University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA; and ‡International Research Institute for Climate Prediction, Palisades, New York, USA

Figure 4. a) Best-fit bivariate logistic regression model of epidemic St. Louis encephalitis virus (SLEV) transmission based on the 1986–1991 record. Plotted for a continuous range of modeled water table depths (WTD) 11 weeks before transmission and fixed values of current modeled water table depths. b) Best-fit logistic regression model of epidemic SLEV transmission based on the 1978–1997 sentinel chicken record. Only antecedent drought conditions are statistically significant. Plotted for a continuous range of modeled water table depths 16 weeks before transmission.

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This page last reviewed March 30, 2004

Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal
National Center for Infectious Diseases
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