Hurricane Season Scenario 

1. Threat Assessment:
   Atlantic Basin:  NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates an 80 percent chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 15 percent chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5 percent chance of a below-normal season.  This outlook is produced by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), National Hurricane Center (NHC), and Hurricane Research Division (HRD).

2. Planning Assumptions:
   1) A major severe weather event making landfall in the United States or its territories could overwhelm State, local, tribal, and private sector emergency response and recovery capabilities and require the alert, activation, and sustained deployment of Federal assets under the NRF.

   2) Any major severe weather event making landfall in the United States or its territories in 2007 may be declared an Incident of National Significance subsequent to which a Principal Federal Official (PFO) will be appointed by the Secretary of Homeland Security.  The PFO will be supported by a Deputy PFO and a Federal Coordinating Officer (FCO). See Annex C of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) base plan for specific appointments.

   3) It is possible that two or more hurricanes may make landfall in the United States simultaneously, particularly in the Western Atlantic-US East Coast, Gulf of Mexico- US Gulf Coast, the Caribbean-Puerto Rico, and the US Virgin Islands affecting more than one FEMA Region simultaneously.

   4) The Department of Homeland Security (DHS)/FEMA, and supporting Federal departments and agencies may be required to provide national-level support to State, local, tribal, and private sector partners in response to other disasters, emergencies, and events (i.e., pandemic influenza outbreaks, earthquakes, floods and flash floods, wildfires, landslides, tornadoes, industrial and technological accidents) or other Incidents of National Significance, including National Special Security Events (NSSEs), domestic and foreign terrorism, physical and cyber attacks on critical infrastructures and key resources, and national and homeland security emergencies, concurrent with preparing for and responding to a major severe weather event making landfall in the United States or its territories.

   5) The Nation will have at least 5 days advance warning of a hurricane with the potential to make landfall in the United States, its territories, or possessions.

   6) The National response will be scalable to severity of the event and the needs of the affected States.

   1. CAVEAT:  In the event 5 days’ warning is not available, Departments and Agencies (D/As) must have a capability to compress their response to react to the shorter warning.

   7) Pre-landfall evacuations of populations along the Gulf Coast are expected to occur at a lower threshold than in previous hurricane seasons. 

   8) Infrastructure restoration required as a result of damage that occurred during the 2005 hurricane season is not yet completed.  The public health and medical infrastructure in some locations remains in a state of significant compromise.

   9) States will partner/participate in all pre-landfall actions.