Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
000 FGUS73 KDVN 282035 ESFDVN IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113- 115-139-163-177-183-ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177- 187-195-MOC045-199-282200- HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 332 PM CDT TUE APR 28 2009 ...ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS... THIS OUTLOOK PROVIDES LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC RIVER OUTLOOKS FOR RIVER BASINS IN IOWA...ILLINOIS...AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THIS OUTLOOK IS DIVIDED INTO TWO PARTS...ONE FOR HIGH WATER...AND ONE FOR LOW WATER. A BRIEF EXPLANATION OF THE METHODOLOGY USED IN CREATING THESE FORECASTS IS GIVEN AT THE END OF THIS OUTLOOK. IN THE FIRST TABLE BELOW FOR HIGH WATER...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER COULD RISE ABOVE THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...MISSISSIPPI RIVER LOCK AND DAM 15 AT ROCK ISLAND HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 15 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STAGE REACHING 16.3 FEET. CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID 4/27/2009 - 7/26/2009 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUBUQUE LD11 16 6.9 7.3 7.7 8.3 9.7 11.0 11.6 12.9 14.3 DUBUQUE 17 9.3 9.7 10.0 10.5 11.6 12.7 13.2 14.4 15.9 BELLEVUE LD12 17 7.8 8.2 8.6 9.2 10.4 11.4 11.8 12.7 14.1 FULTON LD13 16 7.6 8.1 8.5 9.0 10.4 11.1 12.6 13.4 14.8 CAMANCHE 17 10.3 10.7 11.0 11.4 12.3 12.8 13.7 14.3 15.3 LECLAIRE LD14 11 6.1 6.4 6.7 7.1 7.9 8.2 9.2 9.7 10.5 ROCK ISLAND LD15 15 8.5 9.1 9.8 10.5 11.1 11.4 12.9 14.2 16.3 ILL. CITY LD16 15 7.1 7.6 8.4 9.5 10.3 11.0 13.0 14.7 16.6 MUSCATINE 16 8.8 9.4 10.2 11.2 11.9 12.5 14.1 15.6 17.6 NEW BOSTON LD17 15 8.5 9.3 10.0 11.3 12.1 12.5 14.2 15.9 17.9 KEITHSBURG 14 9.4 9.9 10.4 11.1 11.7 12.1 13.1 14.3 16.2 GLADSTONE LD18 10 4.8 5.3 6.1 6.7 7.6 8.2 9.2 10.5 12.3 BURLINGTON 15 10.6 10.9 11.6 12.1 12.8 13.3 14.1 15.1 16.8 KEOKUK LD19 16 7.2 7.4 8.2 8.9 9.6 10.5 11.6 12.8 14.6 GREGORY LANDING 15 9.1 9.7 10.3 11.5 12.3 12.9 14.4 15.5 17.5 MAQUOKETA RIVER MANCHESTER HWY 20 14 4.7 5.6 6.3 6.9 7.4 8.0 8.7 10.5 14.4 MAQUOKETA 24 12.6 13.7 14.3 15.4 17.0 18.5 20.2 21.3 23.2 WAPSIPINICON RIVER INDEPENDENCE 12 5.5 5.8 6.3 6.5 6.7 7.1 7.4 8.1 11.3 ANAMOSA SHAW RD 14 6.5 7.7 8.5 9.4 10.2 11.6 13.2 15.6 17.9 DE WITT 11 8.3 8.8 10.0 11.0 11.6 11.9 12.4 12.6 13.2 CEDAR RIVER VINTON 15 5.0 5.5 6.0 7.3 9.0 10.5 11.3 12.3 14.1 CEDAR RAPIDS 12 5.4 5.7 5.9 6.8 7.6 8.5 9.2 10.7 14.0 CONESVILLE 13 7.7 8.1 8.6 9.8 10.6 11.5 12.1 13.5 15.0 IOWA RIVER MARENGO 14 10.5 12.1 12.6 13.8 14.8 16.4 17.0 17.5 18.6 IOWA CITY 22 12.7 14.0 15.9 16.4 16.4 16.5 17.0 18.4 19.2 LONE TREE 15 8.3 9.6 10.4 10.9 11.6 12.3 12.7 14.0 17.3 COLUMBUS JCT 19 12.0 12.8 13.8 15.1 16.0 16.8 17.9 20.0 21.6 WAPELLO 20 14.0 15.1 15.8 17.2 18.1 19.0 19.9 22.0 23.8 ENGLISH RIVER KALONA 14 6.0 6.4 8.1 9.1 10.2 12.0 14.0 16.4 19.7 NORTH SKUNK RIVER SIGOURNEY 16 9.2 11.3 12.3 14.2 14.7 15.9 17.3 18.3 20.4 SKUNK RIVER AUGUSTA 15 7.8 8.8 10.7 12.5 13.7 15.5 16.5 18.7 20.6 DES MOINES RIVER KEOSAUQUA 22 14.1 15.5 15.9 16.5 16.9 17.4 18.1 18.8 20.2 ST FRANCISVILLE 18 11.8 13.7 14.4 15.5 16.5 17.2 18.1 19.0 20.9 PECATONICA RIVER FREEPORT 13 7.9 8.5 9.3 9.8 10.9 11.7 12.9 14.0 14.9 ROCK RIVER COMO 10 5.7 6.0 6.2 6.7 7.9 9.1 9.9 11.3 13.1 JOSLIN 12 10.5 11.1 11.3 12.3 13.9 14.8 15.5 17.4 18.8 MOLINE 12 10.6 10.8 11.1 11.8 12.6 13.2 13.9 15.0 16.7 GREEN RIVER GENESEO 15 6.8 8.5 9.6 11.3 12.1 13.4 14.1 15.6 17.3 LA MOINE RIVER COLMAR 20 14.6 17.2 18.9 19.6 20.0 20.7 21.1 22.3 23.1 ILLINOIS RIVER LA SALLE 20 14.4 15.6 19.1 20.3 21.8 23.0 24.0 25.0 29.0 HENRY 23 16.5 17.2 21.2 22.8 23.9 25.6 26.6 27.7 31.4 FOX RIVER WAYLAND 15 4.3 5.0 5.9 6.8 8.7 11.0 13.3 15.6 16.6 IN THIS NEXT TABLE...THE 90 THROUGH 10 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE CHANCE THE RIVER WILL FALL BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS. FOR EXAMPLE...THE CEDAR RIVER AT CEDAR RAPIDS HAS A FLOOD STAGE OF 12 FEET. IN THE NEXT 90 DAYS THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE STAGE FALLING TO 4.1 FEET. CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS VALID 4/27/2009 - 7/26/2009 LOCATION FS(FT) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% MISSISSIPPI RIVER DUBUQUE LD11 16 6.0 5.9 5.2 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.1 DUBUQUE 17 8.5 8.4 8.0 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.2 BELLEVUE LD12 17 6.3 6.0 5.1 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 FULTON LD13 16 6.0 5.7 5.0 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 CAMANCHE 17 9.5 9.5 9.2 9.0 8.9 8.9 8.8 8.8 8.7 LECLAIRE LD14 11 5.3 5.2 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.4 ROCK ISLAND LD15 15 6.3 5.9 5.8 5.1 4.9 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.0 ILL. CITY LD16 15 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.1 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 MUSCATINE 16 7.1 6.8 6.7 6.4 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.8 NEW BOSTON LD17 15 5.6 5.1 5.0 4.2 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.2 KEITHSBURG 14 7.3 6.9 6.6 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.4 GLADSTONE LD18 10 3.0 2.5 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.0 BURLINGTON 15 9.1 8.5 8.4 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.5 KEOKUK LD19 16 5.3 4.8 4.4 3.8 3.6 3.3 2.8 2.5 2.4 GREGORY LANDING 15 7.3 6.8 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.4 6.3 6.3 MAQUOKETA RIVER MANCHESTER HWY 20 14 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.3 MAQUOKETA 24 11.1 11.0 10.9 10.8 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.5 10.4 WAPSIPINICON RIVER INDEPENDENCE 12 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 ANAMOSA SHAW RD 14 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 DE WITT 11 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.6 CEDAR RIVER VINTON 15 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 CEDAR RAPIDS 12 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 CONESVILLE 13 5.8 5.5 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.5 IOWA RIVER MARENGO 14 7.5 7.4 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.3 IOWA CITY 22 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.2 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.4 9.3 LONE TREE 15 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.3 COLUMBUS JCT 19 10.3 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.3 9.2 9.1 8.9 WAPELLO 20 12.3 11.8 11.7 11.5 11.3 11.3 11.1 11.0 10.8 ENGLISH RIVER KALONA 14 3.8 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.2 NORTH SKUNK RIVER SIGOURNEY 16 5.0 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 SKUNK RIVER AUGUSTA 15 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.0 DES MOINES RIVER KEOSAUQUA 22 11.4 11.1 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.3 10.3 10.1 10.0 ST FRANCISVILLE 18 8.3 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.4 7.1 7.0 6.7 6.5 PECATONICA RIVER FREEPORT 13 5.0 4.7 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.6 ROCK RIVER COMO 10 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.1 JOSLIN 12 6.8 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.0 MOLINE 12 8.8 8.5 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.1 8.0 8.0 GREEN RIVER GENESEO 15 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 LA MOINE RIVER COLMAR 20 4.2 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.6 ILLINOIS RIVER LA SALLE 20 11.5 11.3 11.1 11.0 11.0 10.9 10.9 10.9 10.8 HENRY 23 14.9 14.8 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.5 14.4 FOX RIVER WAYLAND 15 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 THIS LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK CONTAINS FORECAST VALUES THAT ARE CALCULATED USING MULTIPLE SEASON SCENARIOS FROM 30 OR MORE YEARS OF CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA...INCLUDING CURRENT CONDITIONS OF THE RIVER...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER...AND 30 TO 90 DAY LONG-RANGE OUTLOOKS OF TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION. BY PROVIDING THE COMPLETE RANGE OF PROBABILITIES...THE LEVEL OF RISK ASSOCIATED WITH LONG-RANGE PLANNING DECISIONS CAN BE DETERMINED. THESE PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS ARE PART OF THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE`S ADVANCED HYDROLOGIC PREDICTION SERVICE. THESE LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED NEAR THE END OF EACH MONTH THROUGHOUT THE YEAR. ALL OF THIS INFORMATION IS ALSO AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT ON THE QUAD CITIES NWS INTERNET HOMEPAGE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/QUADCITIES . $$ MAS
