[top]
000
FXUS61 KRLX 082026
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
325 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH COOLER AIR AND PLENTY
OF CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT SLIDES IN MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWING HOLES IN BKN/OVC CU OVER TRISTATE
AREA...WITH THE NORTH UNDER SOLID SC DECK. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CURRENTLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONT TO MOVE NE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ASSOCIATED H85 TROUGH AND COLD POOL PROGGED TO APPROACH AREA
OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SUN...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOIST
AND -6C AIR BY SUN AFTN. FEEL MOST AREAS WILL BE UNDER A SC DECK BY
DAWN SUN AS COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH.
W/WSW H85 FLOW/MARGINAL CAA/SNOW GROWTH ZONE WELL ABV HIGH
RH/OMEGA...POINT TO A POOR UPSLOPE SETUP. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
SOME LIGHT RETURN ECHOES UPSTREAM UNDER COLD POOL...KEPT ONGOING
SCHC POPS GOING FOR MTNS ON SUN. ANY LIGHT PCPN REMAINS ALL LIQUID
INITIALLY AS LCL MODELS/NAM12 DONT BRING IN SUB 0C H85 AIR UNTIL
12Z SUN...AND EVEN THEN ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.
FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINT BY A COUPLE
DEGREES UPON EXAMINING UPSTREAM MORNING TMPS. WENT WITH THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE FOR MAXT ON SUN...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT PLENTY OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AROUND 06Z
MON...UNTIL PASSAGE OF H850 THERMAL TROUGH. 12Z MODELS THEN SIMILAR
ON LIFTING OUT DOUBLE-BARREL H500 LOWS THROUGH EASTERN CANADA ON
MONDAY. FLOW THEN GOES ZONAL WITH SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD BY 12Z
TUESDAY. RESULT IS A DRY MONDAY WITH PLENTY OF EARLY
SUNSHINE...FILTERED BY HIGH CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE FAST FLOW
ALOFT.
MODELS ARE NOW SIMILAR IN A SLOWER APPROACH OF MIDWEEK SYSTEM. GFS
IS A LITTLE MORE ENERGETIC WITH MIDLEVEL RIDGING THAN OTHER MODELS
LIKE ECMWF...BUT RESULTS ARE THE SAME. HAVE SLOWED DOWN POPS
CONSIDERABLY...ALMOST TOTALLY REMOVING MONDAY NIGHT AND TOPPING OUT
AT 30/40 ON TUESDAY. DID NOT WANT TO SLOW DOWN FURTHER AT THIS
POINT...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME MODELS...GIVEN THE ZONAL FLOW AND THE
TENDENCY TO BE TOO SLOW TO START WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION.
STILL COULD SEE A NEED FOR FURTHER SLOWING IN FUTURE FORECASTS
THOUGH. MAY SEE A TOUCH OF SNOW OR EVEN FREEZING PRECIPITATION ON
THE FRONT SIDE OF ANY PRECIPITATION...BUT CHOSE NOT TO EMPHASIZE
THIS TOO MUCH AT THIS POINT.
ELECTED FOR WARMER SIDE OF MOS TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT PUT IN SOME RIDGE/VALLEY DIFFERENCES WITH A
PUFF OF WIND REMAINING. LEANED WARMER MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL
WITH INCREASING SW FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO MID SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY THROUGH MID WEEK...AS WEAK RIDGE BREAKS OVER CWA. FLOW TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WITH TAP OPENING UP FROM THE TH GULF
STATES.
NOTED SOME DIFFERENCES IN LONG TERM MODELS IN HANDLING MID LEVEL
FEATURES BY MID WEEK. GFS KEEPS LARGE SCALE TROUGH IN TACT AS IT
TRAVERSE TO THE EAST...WITH THE ECMWF CUTTING OFF LOW OVER SRN
ROCKIES.
IN EITHER CASE...SENSIBLE WX OVER REGION WILL GENERALLY BE THE SAME.
REGION WILL BE UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WITH WEAK IMPULSES PASSING
OVER THE REGION. TIMING THESE WILL BE DIFFICULT...SO HAVE
BROADBRUSHED CLOUDS AND CHC POPS FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD.
BOTH MODELS SHOW VIGOROUS WAVE DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA
AND THE DAKOTAS DAY 6 AND 7. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP DEEPEN LARGE
SCALE TROUGH FOR A TREND TOWARDS COOLER TEMPS BY DAY 7. HPC TEMP
GUIDANCE GENERALLY FOLLOWED. HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS
...ESPECIALLY MIN TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASE CLOUDS AT NIGHT.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING...SAVE FOR PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS AT EKN WITH LINGERING SC DECK. GUSTY WINDS TO 20KTS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOIST WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUN AS UPPR TROF MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A BORDERLINE MVFR 3KFT CIG WITH SC OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH 12Z
SUN...LIFTING SOME BY EARLY AFTN.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH TUES.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER ON WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING OVER
THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/CL/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KRLX 081915
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH COOLER AIR AND PLENTY
OF CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY MONDAY. A WARM FRONT SLIDES IN
MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWING HOLES IN BKN/OVC CU OVER TRISTATE
AREA...WITH THE NORTH UNDER SOLID SC DECK. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CURRENTLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONT TO MOVE NE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ASSOCIATED H85 TROUGH AND COLD POOL PROGGED TO APPROACH AREA
OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SUN...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOIST
AND -6C AIR BY SUN AFTN. FEEL MOST AREAS WILL BE UNDER A SC DECK BY
DAWN SUN AS COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH.
W/WSW H85 FLOW/MARGINAL CAA/SNOW GROWTH ZONE WELL ABV HIGH
RH/OMEGA...POINT TO A POOR UPSLOPE SETUP. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
SOME LIGHT RETURN ECHOES UPSTREAM UNDER COLD POOL...KEPT ONGOING
SCHC POPS GOING FOR MTNS ON SUN. ANY LIGHT PCPN REMAINS ALL LIQUID
INITIALLY AS LCL MODELS/NAM12 DONT BRING IN SUB 0C H85 AIR UNTIL
12Z SUN...AND EVEN THEN ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.
FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINT BY A COUPLE
DEGREES UPON EXAMINING UPSTREAM MORNING TMPS. WENT WITH THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE FOR MAXT ON SUN...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT PLENTY OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LESS THAN PERFECT UPSLOPE EVENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY THAN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS
NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN SUNDAY...AND 850HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH VALUES COLD ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE...MORE SO ACROSS THE NORTH. MAY HAVE GONE A LITTLE
TOO GENEROUS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
SPRINKLES MAY BE A MORE APPROPRIATE OPTION FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME BEFORE
CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM FILLS IN.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GET ORGANIZED OVER EASTERN TEXAS...WITH
A WARM FRONT SLIDING IN ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NAM AND GFS DO
A REASONABLY GOOD JOB OF PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
AGREEMENT. SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO PERSIST IN A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MANNER FOR SOME TIME AFTER MONDAY. BOTTOM LINE...IF THE
GFS IS IN LINE...SOME SOAKING RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER SRN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 6. THIS LEAVES US IN A WSW
THE SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. AS A RESULT...NO ONE BIG "BISCUIT"/STORM. SO THE GOOD
NEWS IS FOR FORESTRY. THE BAD NEWS IS TRYING TO TIME THE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES AND WHEN THE BREAKS WILL OCCUR.
HAVE WARM FRONT SETTING UP IN KENTUCKY AT START OF THIS PERIOD.
TIMING THE PCPN MOVING E IS HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...SINCE MAIN MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE DIRECTED NORTH...INTO THE
MIDWEST...SAY ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SLOWED DOWN THE INCREASE IN POPS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IF PCPN DOES ARRIVE BY 12Z TUESDAY...I
DO MENTION SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC POP AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE PRODUCED BY
MEDIUM RANGE STAFF MEMBERS. A BIT LOWER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING...SAVE FOR PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS AT EKN WITH LINGERING SC DECK. GUSTY WINDS TO 20KTS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOIST WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUN AS UPPR TROF MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A BORDERLINE MVFR 3KFT CIG WITH SC OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH 12Z
SUN...LIFTING SOME BY EARLY AFTN.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH TUES.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER ON WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING OVER
THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/CL/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KRLX 081913
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
213 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY WITH COOLER AIR AND PLENTY
OF CLOUDS. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY MONDAY. A WARM FRONT SLIDES IN
MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CURRENT VIS SAT SHOWING HOLES IN BKN/OVC CU OVER TRISTATE
AREA...WITH THE NORTH UNDER SOLID SC DECK. VERTICALLY STACKED LOW
CURRENTLY OVER LAKE MICHIGAN WILL CONT TO MOVE NE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. ASSOCIATED H85 TROUGH AND COLD POOL PROGGED TO APPROACH AREA
OVERNIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH ON SUN...WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOIST
AND -6C AIR BY SUN AFTN. FEEL MOST AREAS WILL BE UNDER A SC DECK BY
DAWN SUN AS COLD POOL MOVES THROUGH.
W/WSW H85 FLOW/MARGINAL CAA/SNOW GROWTH ZONE WELL ABV HIGH
RH/OMEGA...POINT TO A POOR UPSLOPE SETUP. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING
SOME LIGHT RETURN ECHOES UPSTREAM UNDER COLD POOL...KEPT ONGOING
SCHC POPS GOING FOR MTNS ON SUN. ANY LIGHT PCPN REMAINS ALL LIQUID
INITIALLY AS LCL MODELS/NAM12 DONT BRING IN SUB 0C H85 AIR UNTIL
12Z SUN...AND EVEN THEN ONLY EXPECTING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES.
FOR TEMPS...GENERALLY UNDERCUT MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINT BY A COUPLE
DEGREES UPON EXAMINING UPSTREAM MORNING TMPS. WENT WITH THE COOLER
MET GUIDANCE FOR MAXT ON SUN...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT PLENTY OF CLOUDS
EXPECTED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LESS THAN PERFECT UPSLOPE EVENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY THAN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS
NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN SUNDAY...AND 850HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH VALUES COLD ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE...MORE SO ACROSS THE NORTH. MAY HAVE GONE A LITTLE
TOO GENEROUS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
SPRINKLES MAY BE A MORE APPROPRIATE OPTION FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME BEFORE
CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM FILLS IN.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GET ORGANIZED OVER EASTERN TEXAS...WITH
A WARM FRONT SLIDING IN ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NAM AND GFS DO
A REASONABLY GOOD JOB OF PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
AGREEMENT. SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO PERSIST IN A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MANNER FOR SOME TIME AFTER MONDAY. BOTTOM LINE...IF THE
GFS IS IN LINE...SOME SOAKING RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER SRN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 6. THIS LEAVES US IN A WSW
THE SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. AS A RESULT...NO ONE BIG "BISCUIT"/STORM. SO THE GOOD
NEWS IS FOR FORESTRY. THE BAD NEWS IS TRYING TO TIME THE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES AND WHEN THE BREAKS WILL OCCUR.
HAVE WARM FRONT SETTING UP IN KENTUCKY AT START OF THIS PERIOD.
TIMING THE PCPN MOVING E IS HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...SINCE MAIN MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE DIRECTED NORTH...INTO THE
MIDWEST...SAY ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SLOWED DOWN THE INCREASE IN POPS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IF PCPN DOES ARRIVE BY 12Z TUESDAY...I
DO MENTION SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC POP AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE PRODUCED BY
MEDIUM RANGE STAFF MEMBERS. A BIT LOWER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING...SAVE FOR PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS AT EKN WITH LINGERING SC DECK. GUSTY WINDS TO 20KTS WILL
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL MOIST WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT INTO SUN AS UPPR TROF MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL PROVIDE
FOR A BORDERLINE MVFR 3KFT CIG WITH SC OVER MOST AREAS THROUGH 12Z
SUN...LIFTING SOME BY EARLY AFTN.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH TUES.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER ON WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING OVER
THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/CL/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KRLX 081739
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1239 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...COLDER AIR MASS
RUSHES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT SLIDES IN MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATED
MADE A FEW CHGS WITH UPDATE. INCREASED CLDS OVER KANAWHA VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS PER VIS SAT TRENDS...WITH CU DECK ALREADY
DEVELOPING. FEEL THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS
UNDER MOSTLY CLDY/OVC REMAINDER OF AFTN DESPITE SC DECK LIFTING
NE. ALSO INCREASED GUSTS THIS AFTN MOST LOCATIONS. KEPT TEMPS
NEARLY STEADY THIS AFTN...WITH PLENTY OF CLDS IN PLACE AND CAA
KICKING IN.
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING A COUPLE MORE SHORT WAVES THRU TONIGHT. DRIER AND COLDER AIR
MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU TONIGHT.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW PRIMARY COLD FRONT...RESPONSIBLE FOR
LAST NIGHTS RAIN SHOWERS...ALREADY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
A DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL ARRIVE SOUTHEAST OH OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER
AND COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND IT. POPS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD
DAWN AS RAIN SHOWERS EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
SECOND FRONT LOSES IDENTITY AS FIRST FRONT DROPS INTO INTENSIFYING
LEE SURFACE TROUGH...BUT LOOKS LIKE COLD ADVECTION OVERTAKES THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z.
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY...AND LOWS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LESS THAN PERFECT UPSLOPE EVENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY THAN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS
NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN SUNDAY...AND 850HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH VALUES COLD ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE...MORE SO ACROSS THE NORTH. MAY HAVE GONE A LITTLE
TOO GENEROUS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
SPRINKLES MAY BE A MORE APPROPRIATE OPTION FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME BEFORE
CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM FILLS IN.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GET ORGANIZED OVER EASTERN TEXAS...WITH
A WARM FRONT SLIDING IN ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NAM AND GFS DO
A REASONABLY GOOD JOB OF PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
AGREEMENT. SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO PERSIST IN A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MANNER FOR SOME TIME AFTER MONDAY. BOTTOM LINE...IF THE
GFS IS IN LINE...SOME SOAKING RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER SRN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 6. THIS LEAVES US IN A WSW
THE SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. AS A RESULT...NO ONE BIG "BISCUIT"/STORM. SO THE GOOD
NEWS IS FOR FORESTRY. THE BAD NEWS IS TRYING TO TIME THE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES AND WHEN THE BREAKS WILL OCCUR.
HAVE WARM FRONT SETTING UP IN KENTUCKY AT START OF THIS PERIOD.
TIMING THE PCPN MOVING E IS HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...SINCE MAIN MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE DIRECTED NORTH...INTO THE
MIDWEST...SAY ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SLOWED DOWN THE INCREASE IN POPS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IF PCPN DOES ARRIVE BY 12Z TUESDAY...I
DO MENTION SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC POP AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE PRODUCED BY
MEDIUM RANGE STAFF MEMBERS. A BIT LOWER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THIS EVENING...SAVE FOR PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS AT EKN WITH LINGERING SC DECK. LOW LEVEL MOIST WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT INTO SUN AS UPPR TROF MOVES THROUGH. THIS
WILL PROVIDE FOR A BORDERLINE MVFR 3KFT CIG WITH SC OVER MOST
AREAS THROUGH 12Z SUN...LIFTING SOME BY EARLY AFTN.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z SUNDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH TUES.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER ON WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM MOVING OVER
THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KRLX 081655
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1142 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...COLDER AIR MASS
RUSHES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT SLIDES IN MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATED...
MADE A FEW CHGS WITH UPDATE. INCREASED CLDS OVER KANAWHA VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS PER VIS SAT TRENDS...WITH CU DECK
ALREADY DEVELOPING. FEEL THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLDY/OVC REMAINDER OF AFTN DESPITE SC DECK
LIFTING NE. ALSO INCREASED GUSTS THIS AFTN MOST LOCATIONS. KEPT
TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THIS AFTN...WITH PLENTY OF CLDS IN PLACE AND CAA
KICKING IN.
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING A COUPLE MORE SHORT WAVES THRU TONIGHT. DRIER AND COLDER AIR
MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU TONIGHT.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW PRIMARY COLD FRONT...RESPONSIBLE FOR
LAST NIGHTS RAIN SHOWERS...ALREADY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
A DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL ARRIVE SOUTHEAST OH OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER
AND COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND IT. POPS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD
DAWN AS RAIN SHOWERS EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
SECOND FRONT LOSES IDENTITY AS FIRST FRONT DROPS INTO INTENSIFYING
LEE SURFACE TROUGH...BUT LOOKS LIKE COLD ADVECTION OVERTAKES THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z.
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY...AND LOWS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LESS THAN PERFECT UPSLOPE EVENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY THAN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS
NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN SUNDAY...AND 850HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH VALUES COLD ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE...MORE SO ACROSS THE NORTH. MAY HAVE GONE A LITTLE
TOO GENEROUS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
SPRINKLES MAY BE A MORE APPROPRIATE OPTION FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME BEFORE
CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM FILLS IN.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GET ORGANIZED OVER EASTERN TEXAS...WITH
A WARM FRONT SLIDING IN ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NAM AND GFS DO
A REASONABLY GOOD JOB OF PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
AGREEMENT. SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO PERSIST IN A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MANNER FOR SOME TIME AFTER MONDAY. BOTTOM LINE...IF THE
GFS IS IN LINE...SOME SOAKING RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER SRN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 6. THIS LEAVES US IN A WSW
THE SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. AS A RESULT...NO ONE BIG "BISCUIT"/STORM. SO THE GOOD
NEWS IS FOR FORESTRY. THE BAD NEWS IS TRYING TO TIME THE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES AND WHEN THE BREAKS WILL OCCUR.
HAVE WARM FRONT SETTING UP IN KENTUCKY AT START OF THIS PERIOD.
TIMING THE PCPN MOVING E IS HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...SINCE MAIN MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE DIRECTED NORTH...INTO THE
MIDWEST...SAY ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SLOWED DOWN THE INCREASE IN POPS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IF PCPN DOES ARRIVE BY 12Z TUESDAY...I
DO MENTION SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC POP AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE PRODUCED BY
MEDIUM RANGE STAFF MEMBERS. A BIT LOWER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILING AT LEAST THRU 15Z AT MOST SITES...IMPROVING
TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
REMAINING AT PKB. SOME PLACES ACROSS SOUTHERN WV WILL SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE SKIES DURING THE MORNING...INCLUDING BKW AND CRW. BUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN COLD AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO OUR
REGION TODAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU TONIGHT.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z SUNDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...30/ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 081642
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1142 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...COLDER AIR MASS
RUSHES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT SLIDES IN MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATED...
MADE A FEW CHGS WITH UPDATE. INCREASED CLDS OVER KANAWHA VALLEY
AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS PER VIS SAT TRENDS...WITH STRATOCU DECK
ALREADY DEVELOPING. FEEL THIS WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLDY/OVC REMAINDER OF AFTN DESPITE OVC MID
DECK LIFTING NE. ALSO INCREASED GUSTS THIS AFTN MOST LOCATIONS.
KEPT TEMPS NEARLY STEADY THIS AFTN...WITH PLENTY OF CLDS IN PLACE
AND CAA KICKING IN.
...PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL
BRING A COUPLE MORE SHORT WAVES THRU TONIGHT. DRIER AND COLDER AIR
MASS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU TONIGHT.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW PRIMARY COLD FRONT...RESPONSIBLE FOR
LAST NIGHTS RAIN SHOWERS...ALREADY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
A DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL ARRIVE SOUTHEAST OH OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER
AND COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND IT. POPS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD
DAWN AS RAIN SHOWERS EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
SECOND FRONT LOSES IDENTITY AS FIRST FRONT DROPS INTO INTENSIFYING
LEE SURFACE TROUGH...BUT LOOKS LIKE COLD ADVECTION OVERTAKES THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z.
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY...AND LOWS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LESS THAN PERFECT UPSLOPE EVENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY THAN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS
NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN SUNDAY...AND 850HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH VALUES COLD ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE...MORE SO ACROSS THE NORTH. MAY HAVE GONE A LITTLE
TOO GENEROUS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
SPRINKLES MAY BE A MORE APPROPRIATE OPTION FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME BEFORE
CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM FILLS IN.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GET ORGANIZED OVER EASTERN TEXAS...WITH
A WARM FRONT SLIDING IN ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NAM AND GFS DO
A REASONABLY GOOD JOB OF PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
AGREEMENT. SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO PERSIST IN A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MANNER FOR SOME TIME AFTER MONDAY. BOTTOM LINE...IF THE
GFS IS IN LINE...SOME SOAKING RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER SRN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 6. THIS LEAVES US IN A WSW
THE SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. AS A RESULT...NO ONE BIG "BISCUIT"/STORM. SO THE GOOD
NEWS IS FOR FORESTRY. THE BAD NEWS IS TRYING TO TIME THE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES AND WHEN THE BREAKS WILL OCCUR.
HAVE WARM FRONT SETTING UP IN KENTUCKY AT START OF THIS PERIOD.
TIMING THE PCPN MOVING E IS HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...SINCE MAIN MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE DIRECTED NORTH...INTO THE
MIDWEST...SAY ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SLOWED DOWN THE INCREASE IN POPS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IF PCPN DOES ARRIVE BY 12Z TUESDAY...I
DO MENTION SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC POP AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE PRODUCED BY
MEDIUM RANGE STAFF MEMBERS. A BIT LOWER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILING AT LEAST THRU 15Z AT MOST SITES...IMPROVING
TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
REMAINING AT PKB. SOME PLACES ACROSS SOUTHERN WV WILL SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE SKIES DURING THE MORNING...INCLUDING BKW AND CRW. BUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN COLD AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO OUR
REGION TODAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU TONIGHT.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z SUNDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...30/ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 081138
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
633 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...COLDER AIR MASS
RUSHES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT SLIDES IN MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
A COUPLE MORE SHORT WAVES THRU TONIGHT. DRIER AND COLDER AIR MASS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU TONIGHT.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW PRIMARY COLD FRONT...RESPONSIBLE FOR
LAST NIGHTS RAIN SHOWERS...ALREADY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
A DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL ARRIVE SOUTHEAST OH OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER
AND COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND IT. POPS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD
DAWN AS RAIN SHOWERS EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
SECOND FRONT LOSES IDENTITY AS FIRST FRONT DROPS INTO INTENSIFYING
LEE SURFACE TROUGH...BUT LOOKS LIKE COLD ADVECTION OVERTAKES THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z.
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY...AND LOWS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LESS THAN PERFECT UPSLOPE EVENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY THAN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS
NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN SUNDAY...AND 850HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH VALUES COLD ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE...MORE SO ACROSS THE NORTH. MAY HAVE GONE A LITTLE
TOO GENEROUS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
SPRINKLES MAY BE A MORE APPROPRIATE OPTION FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME BEFORE
CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM FILLS IN.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GET ORGANIZED OVER EASTERN TEXAS...WITH
A WARM FRONT SLIDING IN ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NAM AND GFS DO
A REASONABLY GOOD JOB OF PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
AGREEMENT. SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO PERSIST IN A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MANNER FOR SOME TIME AFTER MONDAY. BOTTOM LINE...IF THE
GFS IS IN LINE...SOME SOAKING RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER SRN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 6. THIS LEAVES US IN A WSW
THE SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. AS A RESULT...NO ONE BIG "BISCUIT"/STORM. SO THE GOOD
NEWS IS FOR FORESTRY. THE BAD NEWS IS TRYING TO TIME THE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES AND WHEN THE BREAKS WILL OCCUR.
HAVE WARM FRONT SETTING UP IN KENTUCKY AT START OF THIS PERIOD.
TIMING THE PCPN MOVING E IS HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...SINCE MAIN MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE DIRECTED NORTH...INTO THE
MIDWEST...SAY ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SLOWED DOWN THE INCREASE IN POPS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IF PCPN DOES ARRIVE BY 12Z TUESDAY...I
DO MENTION SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC POP AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE PRODUCED BY
MEDIUM RANGE STAFF MEMBERS. A BIT LOWER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS PREVAILING AT LEAST THRU 15Z AT MOST SITES...IMPROVING
TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
REMAINING AT PKB. SOME PLACES ACROSS SOUTHERN WV WILL SEE SOME
BREAKS IN THE SKIES DURING THE MORNING...INCLUDING BKW AND CRW. BUT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED WITHIN COLD AIR MASS WILL ADVECT INTO OUR
REGION TODAY. OCCASIONAL GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE THRU TONIGHT.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z SUNDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...
000
FXUS61 KRLX 080906
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
329 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WITH A COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS...COLDER AIR MASS
RUSHES IN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS BRIEFLY
MONDAY. A WARM FRONT SLIDES IN MID WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING
A COUPLE MORE SHORT WAVES THRU TONIGHT. DRIER AND COLDER AIR MASS
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THRU TONIGHT.
SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGES SHOW PRIMARY COLD FRONT...RESPONSIBLE FOR
LAST NIGHTS RAIN SHOWERS...ALREADY ALONG THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS.
A DEWPOINT GRADIENT WILL ARRIVE SOUTHEAST OH OVERNIGHT WITH DRIER
AND COLDER AIR MASS BEHIND IT. POPS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD
DAWN AS RAIN SHOWERS EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
SECOND FRONT LOSES IDENTITY AS FIRST FRONT DROPS INTO INTENSIFYING
LEE SURFACE TROUGH...BUT LOOKS LIKE COLD ADVECTION OVERTAKES THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z.
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKS GOOD A BIT WARMER THAN GUIDANCE FOR
HIGHS TODAY...AND LOWS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LESS THAN PERFECT UPSLOPE EVENT WITH A MORE WESTERLY THAN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW SETS UP AS MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXITS
NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN SUNDAY...AND 850HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL FLIRT WITH VALUES COLD ENOUGH FOR A COUPLE SHOWERS
HERE AND THERE...MORE SO ACROSS THE NORTH. MAY HAVE GONE A LITTLE
TOO GENEROUS IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE COVERAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND
SPRINKLES MAY BE A MORE APPROPRIATE OPTION FOR FUTURE FORECASTS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY...BRINGING A PERIOD OF MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ALLOWING THE TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SOME BEFORE
CIRRUS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM FILLS IN.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL GET ORGANIZED OVER EASTERN TEXAS...WITH
A WARM FRONT SLIDING IN ALONG THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. NAM AND GFS DO
A REASONABLY GOOD JOB OF PLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
AGREEMENT. SOUTHERN STREAM LOOKS TO PERSIST IN A SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST MANNER FOR SOME TIME AFTER MONDAY. BOTTOM LINE...IF THE
GFS IS IN LINE...SOME SOAKING RAIN COULD BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA INTO MID WEEK.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER SRN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 6. THIS LEAVES US IN A WSW
THE SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. AS A RESULT...NO ONE BIG "BISCUIT"/STORM. SO THE GOOD
NEWS IS FOR FORESTRY. THE BAD NEWS IS TRYING TO TIME THE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES AND WHEN THE BREAKS WILL OCCUR.
HAVE WARM FRONT SETTING UP IN KENTUCKY AT START OF THIS PERIOD.
TIMING THE PCPN MOVING E IS HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...SINCE MAIN MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE DIRECTED NORTH...INTO THE
MIDWEST...SAY ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SLOWED DOWN THE INCREASE IN POPS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IF PCPN DOES ARRIVE BY 12Z TUESDAY...I
DO MENTION SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC POP AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE PRODUCED BY
MEDIUM RANGE STAFF MEMBERS. A BIT LOWER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...EXITING THE MOUNTAINS
BY 10Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH VERY VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING
FROM VFR TO MVFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVING BEHIND THE FRONT TO VFR
CEILINGS THRU THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH ENOUGH WIND BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT FOG FROM FORMING IN RAIN COOLED
AREAS.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 080547
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1240 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT....BRINGING COOLER AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/POSSIBILITIES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
VERY COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY FRONT
CURRENTLY ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP...IS MORE OF A DEWPOINT FRONT.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN OHIO AND CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...IS THE TRUE COLD FRONT.
ALL THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...AND
LOOKS TO BE ENHANCING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY UP THRU SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO. HARD TO PICK OUT ANY INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...BUT 00Z MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON WHAT IS HAPPENING
WITH THE QPF FIELD. THUS...HAVE CAT POPS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE
AREA AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...BUT WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP OF MAINLY
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS FIRST FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BY 08Z...SO MOST POPS BASICALLY END FOLLOWING THIS FRONT.
SECOND FRONT LOSES IDENTITY AS FIRST FRONT DROPS INTO INTENSIFYING
LEE SURFACE TROUGH...BUT LOOKS LIKE COLD ADVECTION OVERTAKES THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z. UNTIL THEN...ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARDS FOR AT LEAST
THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT. KEPT LOTS OF CLOUDS BEHIND BOTH
FRONTS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A HARD TO TIME WINDOW OF CLEARING
BEFORE THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION SETS IN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDLEVEL TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS OVER AREA THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
TRENDING MORE ZONAL BY MONDAY. H500 CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
PULLS NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...WITH SURFACE LOW LEADING IT. SINCE
WE ARE ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM...WE
WILL GET NEITHER NORTHWEST FLOW NOR A STRONG COLD PUSH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. SUBZERO H850 TEMPS ARRIVE IN EARNEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND H850 THERMAL TROUGH IS IN AREA BY 12Z MONDAY
WITH VALUES OF -6 TO -8C. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY
PLENTIFUL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION DO NOT
FORESEE A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SHRA.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY KEPT ANY POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS AND CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CWA...CLOSER TO UPPER LOW AND COUNTING ON MOUNTAINS TO PROVIDE A
VERY MODEST UPSLOPE EFFECT FROM WESTERLY FLOW. DID GO WITH A 30 IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH COLDEST H850 TEMPS
AROUND...MAXIMIZING INSTABILITY. QPF WILL BE PRETTY
INCONSEQUENTIAL. SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS
CWA...WITH CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP.
DID A GENERAL MET/MAV BLEND FOR LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHTS....BUT
WENT COOLER IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR. AT
OR BELOW THE COOLER MET ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE ZIPPING BY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW. PLENTY OF
SUN TO START THE DAY BUT MID/HI CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON IN THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER SRN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 6. THIS LEAVES US IN A WSW
THE SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. AS A RESULT...NO ONE BIG "BISCUIT"/STORM. SO THE GOOD
NEWS IS FOR FORESTRY. THE BAD NEWS IS TRYING TO TIME THE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES AND WHEN THE BREAKS WILL OCCUR.
HAVE WARM FRONT SETTING UP IN KENTUCKY AT START OF THIS PERIOD.
TIMING THE PCPN MOVING E IS HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...SINCE MAIN MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE DIRECTED NORTH...INTO THE
MIDWEST...SAY ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SLOWED DOWN THE INCREASE IN POPS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IF PCPN DOES ARRIVE BY 12Z TUESDAY...I
DO MENTION SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC POP AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE PRODUCED BY
MEDIUM RANGE STAFF MEMBERS. A BIT LOWER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...EXITING THE MOUNTAINS
BY 10Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...WITH VERY VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING
FROM VFR TO MVFR. CONDITIONS IMPROVING BEHIND THE FRONT TO VFR
CEILINGS THRU THE REST OF THE PERIOD...WITH ENOUGH WIND BEHIND THE
FRONT OVERNIGHT TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT FOG FROM FORMING IN RAIN COOLED
AREAS.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL/JS
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 080205
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
816 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT....BRINGING COOLER AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/POSSIBILITIES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY COMPLEX FRONTAL SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS OVERNIGHT. PRIMARY FRONT
CURRENTLY ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP...IS MORE OF A DEWPOINT FRONT.
BEHIND THIS FRONT...CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN OHIO AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY...IS
THE TRUE COLD FRONT.
ALL THE RAIN SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...AND
LOOKS TO BE ENHANCING FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY UP THRU SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO. HARD TO PICK OUT ANY INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS...BUT 00Z MODELS SEEM TO HAVE A HANDLE ON WHAT IS HAPPENING
WITH THE QPF FIELD. THUS...HAVE CAT POPS OVERNIGHT FOR MOST OF THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT...BUT WILL BE LIGHT PRECIP OF MAINLY AROUND
A TENTH OF AN INCH. THIS FIRST FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY
08Z...SO MOST POPS BASICALLY END FOLLOWING THIS FRONT.
SECOND FRONT LOSES IDENTITY AS FIRST FRONT DROPS INTO INTENSIFYING
LEE SURFACE TROUGH...BUT LOOKS LIKE COLD ADVECTION OVERTAKES THE
ENTIRE AREA BY 12Z. UNTIL THEN...ADJUSTED TEMPS UPWARDS FOR AT LEAST
THE EARLY PART OF TONIGHT. KEPT LOTS OF CLOUDS BEHIND BOTH
FRONTS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A HARD TO TIME WINDOW OF CLEARING
BEFORE THE STRONGER COLD ADVECTION SETS IN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDLEVEL TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS OVER AREA THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
TRENDING MORE ZONAL BY MONDAY. H500 CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
PULLS NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...WITH SURFACE LOW LEADING IT. SINCE
WE ARE ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM...WE
WILL GET NEITHER NORTHWEST FLOW NOR A STRONG COLD PUSH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. SUBZERO H850 TEMPS ARRIVE IN EARNEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND H850 THERMAL TROUGH IS IN AREA BY 12Z MONDAY
WITH VALUES OF -6 TO -8C. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY
PLENTIFUL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION DO NOT
FORESEE A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SHRA.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY KEPT ANY POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS AND CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CWA...CLOSER TO UPPER LOW AND COUNTING ON MOUNTAINS TO PROVIDE A
VERY MODEST UPSLOPE EFFECT FROM WESTERLY FLOW. DID GO WITH A 30 IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH COLDEST H850 TEMPS
AROUND...MAXIMIZING INSTABILITY. QPF WILL BE PRETTY
INCONSEQUENTIAL. SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS
CWA...WITH CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP.
DID A GENERAL MET/MAV BLEND FOR LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHTS....BUT
WENT COOLER IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR. AT
OR BELOW THE COOLER MET ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE ZIPPING BY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW. PLENTY OF
SUN TO START THE DAY BUT MID/HI CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON IN THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER SRN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 6. THIS LEAVES US IN A WSW
THE SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. AS A RESULT...NO ONE BIG "BISCUIT"/STORM. SO THE GOOD
NEWS IS FOR FORESTRY. THE BAD NEWS IS TRYING TO TIME THE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES AND WHEN THE BREAKS WILL OCCUR.
HAVE WARM FRONT SETTING UP IN KENTUCKY AT START OF THIS PERIOD.
TIMING THE PCPN MOVING E IS HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...SINCE MAIN MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE DIRECTED NORTH...INTO THE
MIDWEST...SAY ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SLOWED DOWN THE INCREASE IN POPS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IF PCPN DOES ARRIVE BY 12Z TUESDAY...I
DO MENTION SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC POP AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE PRODUCED BY
MEDIUM RANGE STAFF MEMBERS. A BIT LOWER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...EXITING THE MOUNTAINS
BY 10Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...WITH
VERY VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BEHIND THE FRONT TO VFR CEILINGS THRU THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ENOUGH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT TO KEEP
SIGNIFICANT FOG FROM FORMING IN RAIN COOLED AREAS.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL/JS
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 080011
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
658 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT....BRINGING COOLER AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/POSSIBILITIES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE COLD FRONT FAIRLY WELL...WITH COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT. DID INCREASE AND TIMED POPS CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. FRONT EXITS BY 12Z SATURDAY BUT KEPT SLT CHC POPS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. UPPER
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS
WELL. ANY THINNING OF CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE FROM
LOW MOVES BACK IN OVER THE REGION. KEPT CLOSE TO COOLER FWC/MET
TEMPS AS MAV SEEMS A TAD TOO WARM WITH COOLER 85H/SFC TEMPS
ADVECTING IN BEHIND FRONT. KEPT SAME THINKING FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND COLDER 85H TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDLEVEL TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS OVER AREA THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
TRENDING MORE ZONAL BY MONDAY. H500 CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
PULLS NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...WITH SURFACE LOW LEADING IT. SINCE
WE ARE ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM...WE
WILL GET NEITHER NORTHWEST FLOW NOR A STRONG COLD PUSH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. SUBZERO H850 TEMPS ARRIVE IN EARNEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND H850 THERMAL TROUGH IS IN AREA BY 12Z MONDAY
WITH VALUES OF -6 TO -8C. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY
PLENTIFUL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION DO NOT
FORESEE A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SHRA.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY KEPT ANY POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS AND CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CWA...CLOSER TO UPPER LOW AND COUNTING ON MOUNTAINS TO PROVIDE A
VERY MODEST UPSLOPE EFFECT FROM WESTERLY FLOW. DID GO WITH A 30 IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH COLDEST H850 TEMPS
AROUND...MAXIMIZING INSTABILITY. QPF WILL BE PRETTY
INCONSEQUENTIAL. SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS
CWA...WITH CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP.
DID A GENERAL MET/MAV BLEND FOR LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHTS....BUT
WENT COOLER IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR. AT
OR BELOW THE COOLER MET ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE ZIPPING BY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW. PLENTY OF
SUN TO START THE DAY BUT MID/HI CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON IN THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER SRN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 6. THIS LEAVES US IN A WSW
THE SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. AS A RESULT...NO ONE BIG "BISCUIT"/STORM. SO THE GOOD
NEWS IS FOR FORESTRY. THE BAD NEWS IS TRYING TO TIME THE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES AND WHEN THE BREAKS WILL OCCUR.
HAVE WARM FRONT SETTING UP IN KENTUCKY AT START OF THIS PERIOD.
TIMING THE PCPN MOVING E IS HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...SINCE MAIN MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE DIRECTED NORTH...INTO THE
MIDWEST...SAY ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SLOWED DOWN THE INCREASE IN POPS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IF PCPN DOES ARRIVE BY 12Z TUESDAY...I
DO MENTION SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC POP AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE PRODUCED BY
MEDIUM RANGE STAFF MEMBERS. A BIT LOWER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT...EXITING THE MOUNTAINS
BY 10Z. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT...WITH
VERY VARIABLE CONDITIONS...RANGING FROM VFR TO MVFR. CONDITIONS
IMPROVING BEHIND THE FRONT TO VFR CEILINGS THRU THE REST OF THE
PERIOD...WITH ENOUGH WIND BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT TO KEEP
SIGNIFICANT FOG FROM FORMING IN RAIN COOLED AREAS.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 00Z SUNDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL/JS
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 072227
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
315 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT....BRINGING COOLER AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/POSSIBILITIES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE COLD FRONT FAIRLY WELL...WITH COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT. DID INCREASE AND TIMED POPS CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. FRONT EXITS BY 12Z SATURDAY BUT KEPT SLT CHC POPS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. UPPER
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS
WELL. ANY THINNING OF CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE FROM
LOW MOVES BACK IN OVER THE REGION. KEPT CLOSE TO COOLER FWC/MET
TEMPS AS MAV SEEMS A TAD TOO WARM WITH COOLER 85H/SFC TEMPS
ADVECTING IN BEHIND FRONT. KEPT SAME THINKING FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND COLDER 85H TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDLEVEL TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS OVER AREA THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
TRENDING MORE ZONAL BY MONDAY. H500 CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
PULLS NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...WITH SURFACE LOW LEADING IT. SINCE
WE ARE ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM...WE
WILL GET NEITHER NORTHWEST FLOW NOR A STRONG COLD PUSH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. SUBZERO H850 TEMPS ARRIVE IN EARNEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND H850 THERMAL TROUGH IS IN AREA BY 12Z MONDAY
WITH VALUES OF -6 TO -8C. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY
PLENTIFUL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION DO NOT
FORESEE A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SHRA.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY KEPT ANY POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS AND CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CWA...CLOSER TO UPPER LOW AND COUNTING ON MOUNTAINS TO PROVIDE A
VERY MODEST UPSLOPE EFFECT FROM WESTERLY FLOW. DID GO WITH A 30 IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH COLDEST H850 TEMPS
AROUND...MAXIMIZING INSTABILITY. QPF WILL BE PRETTY
INCONSEQUENTIAL. SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS
CWA...WITH CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP.
DID A GENERAL MET/MAV BLEND FOR LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHTS....BUT
WENT COOLER IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR. AT
OR BELOW THE COOLER MET ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE ZIPPING BY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW. PLENTY OF
SUN TO START THE DAY BUT MID/HI CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON IN THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD 500 MB TROF OVER SRN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 6. THIS LEAVES US IN A WSW
THE SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. AS A RESULT...NO ONE BIG "BISCUIT"/STORM. SO THE GOOD
NEWS IS FOR FORESTRY. THE BAD NEWS IS TRYING TO TIME THE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES AND WHEN THE BREAKS WILL OCCUR.
HAVE WARM FRONT SETTING UP IN KENTUCKY AT START OF THIS PERIOD.
TIMING THE PCPN MOVING E IS HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...SINCE MAIN MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE DIRECTED NORTH...INTO THE
MIDWEST...SAY ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SLOWED DOWN THE INCREASE IN POPS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IF PCPN DOES ARRIVE BY 12Z TUESDAY...I
DO MENTION SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC POP AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE PRODUCED BY
MEDIUM RANGE STAFF MEMBERS. A BIT LOWER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN OH INTO CENTRAL KY ATTM. RAIN SHOWERS JUST
OUT AHEAD OF FRONT. SOME GUSTS 15-20KTS WITH THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN PKB/HTS LINE THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER 06Z RAIN SHOULD BE ALONG EKN/BKW LINE AND
CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE WESTWARD. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FROM WEST
TO EAST AT ALL SITES BY 12Z SATURDAY.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL/JS
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 072018
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
315 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT....BRINGING COOLER AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES/POSSIBILITIES FOR RAIN NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS ARE HANDLING THE COLD FRONT FAIRLY WELL...WITH COLD FRONT
PASSING THROUGH TONIGHT. DID INCREASE AND TIMED POPS CLOSER TO THE
FRONT. FRONT EXITS BY 12Z SATURDAY BUT KEPT SLT CHC POPS IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING MOISTURE. UPPER
LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY AS
WELL. ANY THINNING OF CLOUDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE FROM
LOW MOVES BACK IN OVER THE REGION. KEPT CLOSE TO COOLER FWC/MET
TEMPS AS MAV SEEMS A TAD TOO WARM WITH COOLER 85H/SFC TEMPS
ADVECTING IN BEHIND FRONT. KEPT SAME THINKING FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY
WITH MORE CLOUDS AND COLDER 85H TEMPS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIDLEVEL TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS OVER AREA THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
TRENDING MORE ZONAL BY MONDAY. H500 CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
PULLS NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME...WITH SURFACE LOW LEADING IT. SINCE
WE ARE ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION OF THIS SYSTEM...WE
WILL GET NEITHER NORTHWEST FLOW NOR A STRONG COLD PUSH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT. SUBZERO H850 TEMPS ARRIVE IN EARNEST SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/NIGHT AND H850 THERMAL TROUGH IS IN AREA BY 12Z MONDAY
WITH VALUES OF -6 TO -8C. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE RELATIVELY
PLENTIFUL INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT WITH WEAK COLD ADVECTION DO NOT
FORESEE A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SHRA.
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY KEPT ANY POPS AT
SLIGHT CHANCE OR LESS AND CONFINED TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS
OF CWA...CLOSER TO UPPER LOW AND COUNTING ON MOUNTAINS TO PROVIDE A
VERY MODEST UPSLOPE EFFECT FROM WESTERLY FLOW. DID GO WITH A 30 IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH COLDEST H850 TEMPS
AROUND...MAXIMIZING INSTABILITY. QPF WILL BE PRETTY
INCONSEQUENTIAL. SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS
CWA...WITH CLEARING SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WARM ADVECTION STARTING UP.
DID A GENERAL MET/MAV BLEND FOR LOWS SATURDAY/SUNDAY NIGHTS....BUT
WENT COOLER IN THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO CLEAR. AT
OR BELOW THE COOLER MET ON SUNDAY.
MONDAY WILL FEATURE TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE ZIPPING BY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL WITH CONTINUED WESTERLY FLOW. PLENTY OF
SUN TO START THE DAY BUT MID/HI CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE IN
THE AFTERNOON IN THE QUICK FLOW ALOFT.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BOARD 500 MB TROF OVER SRN ROCKIES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...
MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 6. THIS LEAVES US IN A WSW
THE SW FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES/DISTURBANCES MOVING
THROUGH. AS A RESULT...NO ONE BIG "BISCUIT"/STORM. SO THE GOOD
NEWS IS FOR FORESTRY. THE BAD NEWS IS TRYING TO TIME THE SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES AND WHEN THE BREAKS WILL OCCUR.
HAVE WARM FRONT SETTING UP IN KENTUCKY AT START OF THIS PERIOD.
TIMING THE PCPN MOVING E IS HARD TO DETERMINE AT THIS DISTANCE IN
TIME...SINCE MAIN MOISTURE INFLOW WILL BE DIRECTED NORTH...INTO THE
MIDWEST...SAY ILLINOIS/INDIANA. SLOWED DOWN THE INCREASE IN POPS
OVERNIGHT MONDAY NIGHT...BUT IF PCPN DOES ARRIVE BY 12Z TUESDAY...I
DO MENTION SOME FREEZING RAIN IN THE WV MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC POP AND TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE PRODUCED BY
MEDIUM RANGE STAFF MEMBERS. A BIT LOWER ON MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN OH INTO CENTRAL KY ATTM. RAIN SHOWERS JUST
OUT AHEAD OF FRONT. SOME GUSTS 15-20KTS WITH THE FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN PKB/HTS LINE THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER 06Z RAIN SHOULD BE ALONG EKN/BKW LINE AND
CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE WESTWARD. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FROM WEST
TO EAST AT ALL SITES BY 12Z SATURDAY.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/CL/JS
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 071740
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1240 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT....BRINGING COOLER AIR FOR
THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE HANDLE ON TIMEING OF RAIN. RADAR
SHOWING THE LEADING EDGE JUST ON FRINGE OF THE EXTREME WESTERN
ZONES IN KY/OH. HAVE SPED UP THE RAIN JUST A TAD AND INCREASED
LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO GREAT LAKES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...A SLIM DRY
SLOT FOLLOWS...AND THEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS.
WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER DAWN...BELIEVE THAT
TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN ZONES COULD BE SOME 4-6 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY. FURTHER EAST...WITH THE LONGER TIME TO INSOLATE
BEFORE THE MID LEVEL DECK MOVES IN...SHOULD PUSH THE MID 70S
AGAIN...EVEN IN THE VALLEYS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR PUSH IS SLOW BEHIND FRONT. LATEST GFS SHOWS SUBZERO H850
TEMPS ARRIVING BY SAT 18Z. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES AS SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW COULD PRODUCE WEAK
UPSLOPE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THESE FEATURE CALL FOR ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS..EXCEPT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AIDED WEAK UPSLOPE.
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO LATEST GMOS...TWEAKED DOWN SOME
ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SLOWED DOWN
BEGINNING OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED EARLY MONDAY...AS REGION SHOULD BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING BY LATER MONDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 850 MB TEMPS
SHOULD WARM ABOVE ZERO BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY...AND SLOWLY WARMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...GFS SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 8 DEGC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
USED A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT OVER WESTERN OH INTO CENTRAL KY ATTM. RAIN SHOWERS JUST
OUT AHEAD OF FRONT. SOME GUSTS 15-20KTS WITH THE FRONT. VFR
CONDTIONS WILL GIVE WAY TO MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON IN PKB/HTS LINE THEN PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. AFTER 06Z RAIN SHOULD BE ALONG EKN/BKW LINE AND
CIGS AND VSBYS IMPROVE WESTWARD. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FROM WEST
TO EAST AT ALL SITES BY 12Z SATURDAY.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z SATURDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
CIGS AND VSBYS LOWER ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH NEXT SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE REGION.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JS
NEAR TERM...26/JS
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 071523
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1023 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....BRINGING
COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING/...
CURRENT GFS SEEMS TO HAVE THE HANDLE ON TIMEING OF RAIN. RADAR
SHOWING THE LEADING EDGE JUST ON FRINGE OF THE EXTREME WESTERN
ZONES IN KY/OH. HAVE SPED UP THE RAIN JUST A TAD AND INCREASED
LIKELY POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO GREAT LAKES
FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...A SLIM DRY
SLOT FOLLOWS...AND THEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS.
WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER DAWN...BELIEVE THAT
TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN ZONES COULD BE SOME 4-6 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY. FURTHER EAST...WITH THE LONGER TIME TO INSOLATE
BEFORE THE MID LEVEL DECK MOVES IN...SHOULD PUSH THE MID 70S
AGAIN...EVEN IN THE VALLEYS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR PUSH IS SLOW BEHIND FRONT. LATEST GFS SHOWS SUBZERO H850
TEMPS ARRIVING BY SAT 18Z. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES AS SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW COULD PRODUCE WEAK
UPSLOPE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THESE FEATURE CALL FOR ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS..EXCEPT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AIDED WEAK UPSLOPE.
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO LATEST GMOS...TWEAKED DOWN SOME
ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SLOWED DOWN
BEGINNING OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED EARLY MONDAY...AS REGION SHOULD BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING BY LATER MONDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 850 MB TEMPS
SHOULD WARM ABOVE ZERO BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY...AND SLOWLY WARMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...GFS SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 8 DEGC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
USED A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST WILL BRING -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAY SEE CEILINGS BRIEFLY DIP MVFR...AS WELL AS
VISIBILITIES ALSO IN THESE SHOWERS. IF LINE ORGANIZES WELL...TEMPO
GROUP MAY BE NEEDED WITH 18Z ISSUANCE TO COVER THIS.
OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS AT OR AROUND 3500FT...AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z SATURDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...26/JS
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JS
000
FXUS61 KRLX 071136
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
636 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....BRINGING
COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL WITH CLOUD COVER
OBSERVATIONS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITION OFF TO THE WEST...SO HAVE
USED THIS WITH CONFIDENCE FOR THE FORECAST. THE MAIN BAG THIS
MORNING IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE
CWA. SHOULD GET SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FIRST...AND THEN A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH PATCHY FORCING AT FIRST...BECOMING A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL MODELS HAVE
BACKED UP A FEW HOURS WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND NOW
LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE AFTER 15Z FOR OUR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY COUNTIES.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO GREAT LAKES FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...A SLIM DRY SLOT
FOLLOWS...AND THEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS.
WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER DAWN...BELIEVE THAT
TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN ZONES COULD BE SOME 4-6 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY. FURTHER EAST...WITH THE LONGER TIME TO INSOLATE
BEFORE THE MID LEVEL DECK MOVES IN...SHOULD PUSH THE MID 70S
AGAIN...EVEN IN THE VALLEYS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR PUSH IS SLOW BEHIND FRONT. LATEST GFS SHOWS SUBZERO H850
TEMPS ARRIVING BY SAT 18Z. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES AS SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW COULD PRODUCE WEAK
UPSLOPE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THESE FEATURE CALL FOR ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS..EXCEPT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AIDED WEAK UPSLOPE.
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO LATEST GMOS...TWEAKED DOWN SOME
ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SLOWED DOWN
BEGINNING OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED EARLY MONDAY...AS REGION SHOULD BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING BY LATER MONDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 850 MB TEMPS
SHOULD WARM ABOVE ZERO BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY...AND SLOWLY WARMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...GFS SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 8 DEGC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
USED A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST WILL BRING -SHRA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. MAY SEE CEILINGS BRIEFLY DIP MVFR...AS WELL AS
VISIBILITIES ALSO IN THESE SHOWERS. IF LINE ORGANIZES WELL...TEMPO
GROUP MAY BE NEEDED WITH 18Z ISSUANCE TO COVER THIS.
OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED WITH CEILINGS AT OR AROUND 4000FT...AND
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 12Z SATURDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26
000
FXUS61 KRLX 070851
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
315 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT....BRINGING
COOLER AIR FOR THE WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
00Z NAM SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED PRETTY WELL WITH CLOUD COVER
OBSERVATIONS AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY POSITION OFF TO THE WEST...SO HAVE
USED THIS WITH CONFIDENCE FOR THE FORECAST. THE MAIN BAG THIS
MORNING IS THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING THROUGH THE
CWA. SHOULD GET SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS FIRST...AND THEN A FEW SHOWERS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITH PATCHY FORCING AT FIRST...BECOMING A
LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCAL MODELS HAVE
BACKED UP A FEW HOURS WITH THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION...AND NOW
LOOKS TO TAKE PLACE AFTER 15Z FOR OUR NORTHEAST KENTUCKY COUNTIES.
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SPIN OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO GREAT LAKES FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES...A SLIM DRY SLOT
FOLLOWS...AND THEN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS.
WITH CLOUD COVER MOVING IN SHORTLY AFTER DAWN...BELIEVE THAT
TEMPERATURES IN THE WESTERN ZONES COULD BE SOME 4-6 DEGREES COOLER
THAN YESTERDAY. FURTHER EAST...WITH THE LONGER TIME TO INSOLATE
BEFORE THE MID LEVEL DECK MOVES IN...SHOULD PUSH THE MID 70S
AGAIN...EVEN IN THE VALLEYS OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
COLD AIR PUSH IS SLOW BEHIND FRONT. LATEST GFS SHOWS SUBZERO H850
TEMPS ARRIVING BY SAT 18Z. THE COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE THRU THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE INCREASES AS SLOWLY FILLING UPPER LOW MEANDERS
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW COULD PRODUCE WEAK
UPSLOPE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
THESE FEATURE CALL FOR ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS..EXCEPT SNOW SHOWERS NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AIDED WEAK UPSLOPE.
PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO LATEST GMOS...TWEAKED DOWN SOME
ACROSS THE NORTH.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SLOWED DOWN
BEGINNING OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED EARLY MONDAY...AS REGION SHOULD BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING BY LATER MONDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 850 MB TEMPS
SHOULD WARM ABOVE ZERO BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY...AND SLOWLY WARMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...GFS SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 8 DEGC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
USED A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT EKN
09Z TO 12Z. A COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
AFTER 12Z...BUT CEILINGS WILL NOT DROP BELOW THE 3000FT THRESHOLD
FOR MVFR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...AND MAY NEED TO ADD TEMPOS
LATER FOR BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -SHRA.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z SATURDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...26/ARJ
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26
000
FXUS61 KRLX 070531
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1231 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. OTHER THAN QUITE MINOR
TIMING ISSUES...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS AND QPF
FIELDS. NAM APPEARS A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND MODEL TO USE FOR DETAILS.
MODELS AGREE ONE SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...CARRYING ONE ORGANIZED BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
WITH IT WELL TO OUR WEST. PROGRESSIVE FRONT THEN BECOMES RATHER
QUIET FRIDAY MORNING...AWAITING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE AROUND
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
AGAIN...BUT THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
MAINLY BRING SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ADEQUATE PW VALUES...LIKELY POPS ARE IN
ORDER WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND EXTENDING CHANCE POPS AS FAR
EAST AS CHARLESTON.
GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STILL HANGING ON...AM GOING BELOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
AGAIN. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS HOLD OFF IN THE FAR WEST TIL LATE TONIGHT.
FOR FRIDAY...HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 60S WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INCREASE...BUT INTO 70S AGAIN IN THE
EAST BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FROPA OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ABOVE...PREFER NAM DETAILS WHERE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES. OVERALL QPF LOOKS TO BE
UNIMPRESSIVE...MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO. COULD SEE A BIT OF
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ROTATES AROUND TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ANY CASE...IT WILL NOT PUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT DENTS IN THE DRYNESS. STILL BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED THE WARMER MET LOWS.
COLD AIR PUSH IS SLOW BEHIND FRONT. SUBZERO H850 TEMPS DO NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES AS SLOWLY FILLING
UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND...BUT GENERAL WSW FLOW NOT FAVORABLE FOR COLD
ADVECTION-INDUCED SHRA. KEPT ONLY A MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
SATURDAY...AND LIMITED THIS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY WENT BELOW MOS TEMP GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK EXPECTED. ALSO WENT AT OR BELOW COOLER NUMBERS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH H850 COLD ADVECTION CRANKING UP A BIT.
COLDEST H850 TEMPS MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH...AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH...CLOSER TO UPPER LOW...AND THE
MOUNTAINS. SLOW DECREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
AS UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TAKES HOLD
TEMPORARILY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SLOWED DOWN
BEGINNING OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED EARLY MONDAY...AS REGION SHOULD BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING BY LATER MONDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 850 MB TEMPS
SHOULD WARM ABOVE ZERO BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY...AND SLOWLY WARMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...GFS SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 8 DEGC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
USED A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...
VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR FOG AT EKN
09Z TO 12Z. A COLD FRONT OFF TO THE WEST WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
AFTER 12Z...BUT CEILINGS WILL NOT DROP BELOW THE 3000FT THRESHOLD
FOR MVFR. A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...AND MAY NEED TO ADD TEMPOS
LATER FOR BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN -SHRA.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 06Z SATURDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...26
000
FXUS61 KRLX 062324
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
624 PM EST THU NOV 6 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST OF OUR AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY NIGHT...BRINGING COOLER AIR FOR THE
WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE BEGINNING OF A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN AS A STRONG UPPER
TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE WEST. OTHER THAN QUITE MINOR
TIMING ISSUES...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS AND QPF
FIELDS. NAM APPEARS A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND MODEL TO USE FOR DETAILS.
MODELS AGREE ONE SHORT WAVE ROTATES AROUND UPPER LOW TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT...CARRYING ONE ORGANIZED BAND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS
WITH IT WELL TO OUR WEST. PROGRESSIVE FRONT THEN BECOMES RATHER
QUIET FRIDAY MORNING...AWAITING ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TO ROTATE AROUND
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SECOND FEATURE WILL ENHANCE SHOWERS
AGAIN...BUT THE UPPER DYNAMICS AND APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
MAINLY BRING SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ADEQUATE PW`S...LIKELY POPS ARE IN ORDER WEST
OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND EXTENDING CHANCE POPS AS FAR EAST AS
CHARLESTON.
GIVEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS TONIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE STILL HANGING ON...AM GOING BELOW TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE
AGAIN. SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS HOLD OFF IN THE FAR WEST TIL LATE TONIGHT.
FOR FRIDAY...HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN IN THE 60S WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS INCREASE...BUT INTO 70S AGAIN IN THE
EAST BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
FROPA OCCURS FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ABOVE...PREFER NAM DETAILS WHERE
THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES. OVERALL QPF LOOKS TO BE
UNIMPRESSIVE...MAYBE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR TWO. COULD SEE A BIT OF
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES AS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE
ROTATES AROUND TROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN ANY CASE...IT WILL NOT PUT
ANY SIGNIFICANT DENTS IN THE DRYNESS. STILL BUMPED POPS UP TO
LIKELY AREAWIDE FRIDAY NIGHT. PREFERRED THE WARMER MET LOWS.
COLD AIR PUSH IS SLOW BEHIND FRONT. SUBZERO H850 TEMPS DO NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES AS SLOWLY FILLING
UPPER LOW MEANDERS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...KEEPING PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AROUND...BUT GENERAL WSW FLOW NOT FAVORABLE FOR COLD
ADVECTION-INDUCED SHRA. KEPT ONLY A MINIMAL SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR
SATURDAY...AND LIMITED THIS TO THE MOUNTAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY WENT BELOW MOS TEMP GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY WITH FAIRLY
SOLID LOW CLOUD DECK EXPECTED. ALSO WENT AT OR BELOW COOLER NUMBERS
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH H850 COLD ADVECTION CRANKING UP A BIT.
COLDEST H850 TEMPS MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY. STILL NOT IMPRESSED WITH
SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION THOUGH...AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTH...CLOSER TO UPPER LOW...AND THE
MOUNTAINS. SLOW DECREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT
AS UPPER LOW STARTS TO PULL AWAY AND A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TAKES HOLD
TEMPORARILY.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED HPC GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...SLOWED DOWN
BEGINNING OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.
DRY WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED EARLY MONDAY...AS REGION SHOULD BE UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL RESULT IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
INCREASING BY LATER MONDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST LATE THURSDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM BEGINS
TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST.
PRECIPITATION DURING THIS PERIOD SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN...
EVEN ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SUGGEST 850 MB TEMPS
SHOULD WARM ABOVE ZERO BY THE TIME THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS ON
MONDAY...AND SLOWLY WARMS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...GFS SUGGESTS 850 MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 8 DEGC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
USED A BLEND OF HPC GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MOS NUMBERS FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z THURSDAY THRU 00Z FRIDAY...
VFR MOSTLY CLEAR TIL AROUND 12Z WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA.
EXCEPTION WILL BE BRIEF LIFR FOG AT EKN 09Z-12Z.
CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE FAR WEST BY 12Z AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. VFR CEILINGS WILL THEN OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA
BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z WEST OF A CKB-CRW LINE...BUT REMAIN VFR.
AVIATION OUTLOOK /BEYOND 18Z FRIDAY/... NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/CL/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...CL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...AAR
| 
