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Biofuels and Agricultural Commodity Markets
Global Biofuels
Biofuels and Food Prices
Policy, Energy, and Other Related Issues
Biofuels and Agricultural Commodity Markets
Feed
Outlook (11 times per year). This report examines
supply, use, prices, and trade for feed grains, with a
focus on corn. New information on corn used for ethanol
production is covered in the text as well as in Table
5 (Corn: Food and industrial uses).
Oil
Crops Outlook (11 times per year). This report analyzes
recent trends and emerging developments for the U.S. and
international vegetable oils markets. For the production
of biodiesel, these oils provide the primary feedstock
and are its main cost. Thus, market information on vegetable
oil supply and demand is vital for the production economics
of this rapidly growing biofuel.
Ethanol
Expansion in the United States: How Will the Agricultural
Sector Adjust? (May 2007). Corn is currently the
primary feedstock for ethanol in the United States.
Market impacts of the expansion in ethanol production
extend well beyond the corn sector to supply and demand
for other crops, such as soybeans and cotton, as well
as to U.S. livestock industries. As a consequence of
these commodity market impacts, farm income, government
payments, and food prices also change. See narrated
slideshow for
an overview; see related Amber Waves feature U.S.
Ethanol Expansion Driving Changes Throughout the Agricultural
Sector (September 2007).
An Analysis of the Effects of an Expansion in Biofuel Demand on U.S. Agriculture (May 2007). This analysis assesses the effects on agriculture of further expansion of biofuels production than that in USDA’s February 2007 long-term projections and reviews the potential for cellulosic ethanol production. Two scenarios were developed to evaluate the effects of biofuel production on crop markets, national and regional livestock markets, farm income, and the environment for crop years 2007-16.
Ethanol
Reshapes the Corn Market (May 2007). Work is underway
to add billions of gallons to the annual production capacity
of the fuel ethyl alcohol market. Expanded ethanol production
in the United States has helped to reduce corn ending
stocks and boost corn prices.
Feed
Grains Backgrounder (March 2007). The rapidly expanding
use of corn by the ethanol industry is raising issues
throughout U.S. agriculture, including the implications
of using grain for fuel instead of for food or feed and
the adequacy of future grain supplies. This report addresses
key market and policy developments that have affected
the U.S. feed grains sector in recent years. During the
ongoing farm policy debate, the U.S. feed grain sector
faces uncertainty about the future level and type of government
support. For the related AmberWaves finding,
see Ethanol
Reduces Government Support for U.S. Feed Grain Sector (April 2007).
Soybean
Backgrounder (April 2006). Key domestic and international
market and policy developments have affected the U.S.
soybean sector in recent years. The report also covers
the development of nontraditional soybean uses such as
biodiesel, which is becoming an important new source of
demand for soybean oil. For the related AmberWaves finding, see International Trade, Biofuel Initiatives Reshaping the
Soybean Sector (September 2006).
Agricultural
Baseline Projections: Current and Previous Baseline Projections (annually in February). The USDA baseline report provides
longrun (10-year) projections for the agricultural sector.
Projections cover agricultural commodities, agricultural
trade, and aggregate indicators of the sector, such as
farm income and food prices. Energy and bioenergy issues
and impacts are discussed in various sections of the report.
Global Biofuels
The
Future of Biofuels: A Global Perspective (November
2007). Global biofuel production tripled between 2000
and 2007, but still accounts for less than 3 percent of
the transportation fuel supply worldwide. Biofuels will
likely be part of a portfolio of solutions to high energy
prices, including conservation, more efficient energy
use, and use of other alternative fuels.
Pacific
Food System Outlook 2006-07 The Future Role of Biofuels (November 2006). Unlike previous periods of high oil prices,
the current increase in oil prices is having a fundamentally
different impact on the food system, creating a more sustained
interest in agriculture as a supplier of energy, not just
a consumer. Prospects for Pacific Rim agriculture to be
a supplier of energy are the focus of this report, which
is based on two days of discussion at the 10th annual
Pacific Food System Outlook meeting in Singapore in May
2006.
Brazil's
Booming Agriculture Faces Obstacles (November 2006).
Brazil has emerged as an important player in global food
and agricultural markets. Brazil’s sugarcane and
associated sugar and ethanol industries have grown rapidly
in the last 5 years, and the country has become the world’s
largest exporter of sugar and ethanol.
Biofuels and Food Prices
Rising Food Prices (September 2008). The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all food has been rising at an accelerated rate in 2007 and 2008, a trend that is expected to continue into the first half of 2009. Higher commodity and energy costs are responsible for higher retail prices. The main factors behind higher food commodity costs include stronger global demand for food, increased U.S. agricultural exports resulting from stronger demand and a weaker dollar, weather-related production problems in some areas of the world, and the increased use of some food commodities, such as corn, for bioenergy uses (requires Windows Media Player).
Global Agricultural Supply and Demand: Factors Contributing to the Recent Increase in Food Commodity Prices (July 2008). Many factors have contributed to the runup in food commodity prices over the last 2 years.
Rising Food Prices Intensify Food Insecurity in Developing Countries (February 2008). The use of food crops for biofuels, coupled with greater food demand, has reversed the path of declining price trends for several commodities. For highly import-dependent or highly food-insecure countries, any decline in import capacity stemming from rising food prices can have challenging food security implications. Food aid, a key safety net source, has stagnated during the last two decades, and its share has declined relative to total food imports of low-income countries.
Corn Prices Near Record High, But What About Food Costs? (February 2008). This Amber Waves article traces the effect of higher corn prices on U.S. retail food prices by analyzing data on price trends from 1987-2007 and the price responsiveness of corn-dependent food to cost changes. The results indicate ethanol's impact on retail food prices depends on how long the increased demand for corn raises farm corn prices and the extent to which higher corn prices are passed through to retail.
Rising Food Prices (June 2007). Retail food price inflation has accelerated in 2007 as higher commodity and energy prices have begun to work their way through the food price system. This short USDA news video focuses on the main factors impacting retail food price inflation and provides insight into what is likely to occur for the rest of the year (requires Windows Media Player).
Ethyl
Alcohol Becomes a Global Commodity (April 2005). Most
ethyl alcohol used in the U.S. is produced domestically.
However, sharp increases in U.S. ethanol use in 2004 pushed
prices high enough to stimulate imports, despite duties
matching the blender tax received by U.S. producers of
alcohol used for fuel.
Policy, Energy, and Other Related Issues
 2008 Farm Bill Side-By-Side
(August 2008). A title-by-title summary of key provisions
of the 2008 Act in a side-by-side comparison with previous
legislation. The side-by-side includes links to related
ERS publications and to analyses of previous farm acts.
New features include a user's guide, an A-Z list of major
provisions, and a search function.
Ethanol Transportation Backgrounder (September 2007). An overview of transportation issues facing a rapidly expanding U.S. ethanol industry in the context of the U.S. corn market from USDA's Agricultural Marketing Service.
USDA 2007 Farm Bill Theme Paper: Energy and Agriculture (August 2006) describes the role of U.S. agriculture in energy production and efforts to conserve energy use in agriculture, discusses and evaluates energy programs administered by USDA, and concludes with a discussion of general policy approaches associated with energy and agriculture.
Agriculture
and Rural Communities Are Resilient to High Energy Costs
(April 2006). Rising energy prices may prompt farmers
and rural residents to make tradeoffs in their production
practices and daily lives. Farmers may be induced to adopt
farming practices that use less energy. Transportation
costs are higher for rural residents, while heating costs
are roughly the same for rural and urban residents.
Biodiesel Development:
New Markets for Conventional and Genetically Modified
Agricultural Products (September 1998). With environmental
and energy source concerns on the rise, using agricultural
fats and oils as fuel in diesel engines has captured increasing
attention. Substituting petroleum diesel with biodiesel
may reduce air emissions, increase the domestic supply
of fuel, and create new markets for farmers.
Industrial
Uses of Agricultural Materials (1993-97). Agricultural
producers provide industry with raw materials for a vast
array of nonfood industrial and consumer products. The
seven reports provide economic and market context for
new and ongoing industrial uses of agricultural materials,
such as ethanol and biodiesel.
Estimating the Net Energy
Balance of Corn Ethanol (July 1995). Variations in
data and assumptions used among studies estimating the
net energy value of corn ethanol have resulted in a wide
range of estimates. This report identifies the factors
causing the variation and develops a more consistent estimate.
The net energy value of corn ethanol has become positive
in recent years due to technological advances in ethanol
conversion and increased efficiency in farm production.
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