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000
FXUS61 KLWX 090158
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
858 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING.
AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE
COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CDFNT MVG ONTO ERN SHR ATTM. UPON INTERACTING W/ DIFFERENTIAL
BNDRYS FM THE BAY...SHRA DVLPD ALNG FNT...MAINLY IN METRO
BALTIMORE. 18Z LWX WRF-NMM12G CAPTURED THIS QUITE WELL. IT ALSO
PROGGED SHRA IN SERN VA. RECENTLY...LTNG DETECTED ALONG ERN SHR OF
THE BAY...SE OF KENT ISL. ALL OF THIS ACTVTY SHUD BE E OF CWFA BY
02Z. WL UPDT PRODUCTS AGN AT THAT PT...RMVG ELY EVE WORDING. AREA
88D/S STILL DETECTING LGT PCPN ACRS ERN PA. SOME OF THAT MAY CLIP
NRN METRO BALT...SO WL LINGER SCHC THERE.
ALNG THE ALLEGANY FRONT...RGNL RADARS SUGGEST A FEW LGT RTNS PSBL
IN UPSLP. TRAJ NOT FVRBL THO /PBZ 00Z RAOB SUGGESTS WSW FLOW/...
AND BNDRY LYR STILL QUITE WARM. HV BACKED OFF ON PCPN...KEEPING
JUST SCHC FOR THE OVNGT.
OTRW...THINK THE WLYS WL SCOUR OUT THE LOW DECK...ALLWG FRO BRKS
IN THE CLDCVR E OF THE MTNS. WL KEEP PTCLDY FM PRVS FCST. USED 18Z
GDNC AND LTST LAMP TO ADJUST MIN-T FCST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPR LOW ACRS GRTLKS WL CONT TO SEND S/WV ENERGY OUR WAY. FOR
THAT MATTER...APPEARS AS THO H5 LOW CNTRS WL PIVOT ARND EACH OTR.
REGARDLESS...EFFECT ON CWFA WL BE FOR CONTD WLY FLOW...W/ CAA
THRUT COLUMN. ADD FVRBL LAPSE RATES...AND XPCT AFTN CLDS TO RDVLP
AREAWIDE.
FOR THE WRN FRINGE...JUST LIKE TNGT...FLOW PTTN /WSW/ NOT FVRBL
FOR MUCH PCPN...THO DO XPCT NMRS CLDS TO BANK UP ALNG RDG.
HV TOUCHED UP GRIDS A BIT...SCALING BACK POPS...REFINING WNDS...
AND ADJUSTING TEMPS ACRS HIER ELEVS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER...LASTING INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL TREND IS
TO BACK OFF ON POPS DURING THE MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER
TO RETREAT...AND MOISTURE SLOWER TO INCREASE/RETURN. BEST CHANCE OF
ANY RAIN WORKING INTO THE CWA IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME NOW LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THERE/S DISAGREEMENT AND UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE/LIFT MAY RESIDE OVER THE CWA. UNDER A RETURN FLOW...SIDED
TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SPREADS CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY THURSDAY. 12Z GFS SUPPORTS THIS. AFTER THURSDAY...THERE/S A
CHANCE THAT THE SPLIT FLOW MAY TRY TO EXHIBIT SOME LARGER SCALE
PHASING...WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY
FRIDAY ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS. 12Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THIS...BUT STILL SHOWS SOME ENERGY PASSING THROUGH.
THEREFORE...HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR AROUND THIS FEATURE/TIME PERIOD
LATE IN THE WEEK. SATURDAY/S FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW...SIDED TOWARD IT
MOVING THROUGH ACROSS THE CWA FOR LOWER POPS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS WHERE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CDFNT THRU ALL
TERMINALS...AND GUSTY NW WNDS IN ITS WAKE WL DIMINISH SHORTLY.
THE SUBSIDENCE FM WLY FLOW SHUD PERMIT LWR CLDS TO BRK OVRNGT.
HWVR...LRG UPR LOW SPIRALS ACRS GRTLKS...WHICH WL SEND S/WV ENERGY
TWD MD/VA/WV TMRW. ADD FVRBL LAPSE RATES...AND XPCT CLDS TO RDVLP
TMRW AFTN. CIGS SHUD BE IN THE 6-7 THSND FT RNG. MRB/MTN WL BE
MOST AFFECTED...CHO THE LEAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START NEXT WEEK...THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
CDFNT JUST ABT THRU WATERS. SHRA ACTVTY PICKED UP AS BNDRY
ENCOUNTERED MARINE AMS...AND EVEN A CPL LTNG STRIKES NOTED.
HWVR...THAT WL ALL BE ON ERN SHR BY TIME UPDT OUT...SO WL OMIT
PCPN. HWVR...IN ITS WAKE...WNDS WL PICK UP FOR SVRL HRS. PER LWX
WRF-NMM12G AND MONITORING OBS...AM CONCERNED THAT DURATION MAY BE
A LTL TOO LONG TO COVER BY MWS. SO...AM RELECTANTLY HOISTING SCA
FOR TNGT. XPCT MID SHIFT TO BE ABLE TO DROP IT PRIOR TO ITS 2AM
EXPIRATION.
ONCE SURGE OF COOLER/LWR DEWPT AIR PASSES ACRS WATERS...DONT
FORSEE ADDTL WND SURGES OF NOTE TMRW. MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS
15 KT AT MOST...AND ALL LWX WRF PROGS CONCURS. WL THRFR CANX SCA
FOR TMRW.
A SURGE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MAY PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATER
MONDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON BY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY
APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES THIS EVNG ABT 0.5-0.75 FT. WUD XPCT THESE TO RTN
TO NRML AS WLY WNDS PICK UP ACRS ESTUARY.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ530>534-537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN/HTS
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...HTS
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN
AVIATION...HTS/PELOQUIN
MARINE...HTS/PELOQUIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...HTS
000
FXUS61 KLWX 082351 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
651 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CDFNT FM DMH-EZF ATTM. AREA OF SHRA DVLPD JUST W OF NAK. 18Z WRF
NMM12G SUGGESTS THAT ADDTL SHRA MAY DVLP ALNG LN...MOSTLY NEAR NE
MD. WL FIRE OFF QUICK UPDT TO COVER.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DIP FURTHER SOUTH TOMORROW...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED...PROBABLY LESS THAN WHAT DEVELOPED TODAY. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FOR THE UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER...LASTING INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL TREND IS
TO BACK OFF ON POPS DURING THE MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER
TO RETREAT...AND MOISTURE SLOWER TO INCREASE/RETURN. BEST CHANCE OF
ANY RAIN WORKING INTO THE CWA IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME NOW LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THERE/S DISAGREEMENT AND UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE/LIFT MAY RESIDE OVER THE CWA. UNDER A RETURN FLOW...SIDED
TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SPREADS CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY THURSDAY. 12Z GFS SUPPORTS THIS. AFTER THURSDAY...THERE/S A
CHANCE THAT THE SPLIT FLOW MAY TRY TO EXHIBIT SOME LARGER SCALE
PHASING...WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY
FRIDAY ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS. 12Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THIS...BUT STILL SHOWS SOME ENERGY PASSING THROUGH.
THEREFORE...HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR AROUND THIS FEATURE/TIME PERIOD
LATE IN THE WEEK. SATURDAY/S FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW...SIDED TOWARD IT
MOVING THROUGH ACROSS THE CWA FOR LOWER POPS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS WHERE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NW WNDS ACRS AREA
WL DIMINISH SHORTLY. LOW CLDS MAY BREAK IN NW FLOW TNGT...BUT
DAYTIME HEATING AND S/WV WL SPARK MORE CLDS TMRW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START NEXT WEEK...THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
SHRA RISK AND SHARP WSHFT THIS EVNG AS CDFNT CROSSES WATERS. HV
ISSUED MWS. DURATION TOO SHORT FOR SCA.
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE FOR ALL
ZONES.
A SURGE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MAY PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATER
MONDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON BY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY
APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF A FOOT OR LESS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE DEPARTURES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS
WINDS SHIFT AROUND FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN
NEAR TERM...HTS
SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN
AVIATION...HTS/PELOQUIN
MARINE...HTS/SAR/PELOQUIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAR
000
FXUS61 KLWX 081952
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
252 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS
EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER
OF THE COUNTRY ON SUNDAY...THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS THE
MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST AREA. A SECONDARY TROUGH AXIS WAS NOTED OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS PLENTY OF CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER NORTHERN MICHIGAN.
THE COLD FRONT OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THIS
EVENING...WITH A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TRYING TO BUILD BEHIND
IT. HOWEVER...WITH THAT SECONDARY TROUGH AND A SHORT WAVE TO THE
WEST...HAVING TROUBLE CLEARING SKIES OUT OVERNIGHT. WILL GO MORE
PESSIMISTIC THAT MOS GUIDE GRIDS...WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY EARLY THEN
BECOMING PARTLY CLOUDY. WILL ALSO MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR UPSLOPE
SHOWERS IN THE FAR NORTHWEST. RAIN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP THIS EVENING
WILL EVENTUALLY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE COMPLETELY CHANGING OVER LATE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW WILL DIP FURTHER SOUTH TOMORROW...WITH HEIGHTS FALLING
AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON MID CLOUDS
EXPECTED...PROBABLY LESS THAN WHAT DEVELOPED TODAY. WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE WILL HELP DRY OUT THE LOWER LEVELS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS
FOR THE UPSLOPE SHOWERS ALONG THE WESTERN RIDGES.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE...SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION
CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILDS IN THEREAFTER...LASTING INTO
TUESDAY BEFORE MOVING OFF THE COAST BY WEDNESDAY. GENERAL TREND IS
TO BACK OFF ON POPS DURING THE MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWER
TO RETREAT...AND MOISTURE SLOWER TO INCREASE/RETURN. BEST CHANCE OF
ANY RAIN WORKING INTO THE CWA IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT TO WEDNESDAY TIME
FRAME NOW LOOKS TO BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...THERE/S DISAGREEMENT AND UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH
MOISTURE/LIFT MAY RESIDE OVER THE CWA. UNDER A RETURN FLOW...SIDED
TOWARD HPC GUIDANCE WHICH SPREADS CHANCE POPS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE
BY THURSDAY. 12Z GFS SUPPORTS THIS. AFTER THURSDAY...THERE/S A
CHANCE THAT THE SPLIT FLOW MAY TRY TO EXHIBIT SOME LARGER SCALE
PHASING...WITH STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING ACROSS THE CWA BY
FRIDAY ACCORDING TO THE 12Z GFS. 12Z ECMWF IS NOT QUITE AS
AGGRESSIVE AS THIS...BUT STILL SHOWS SOME ENERGY PASSING THROUGH.
THEREFORE...HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR AROUND THIS FEATURE/TIME PERIOD
LATE IN THE WEEK. SATURDAY/S FORECAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH
AND TIMING OF THE LATE WEEK SYSTEM. RIGHT NOW...SIDED TOWARD IT
MOVING THROUGH ACROSS THE CWA FOR LOWER POPS EXCEPT ACROSS THE
HIGHLANDS WHERE UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS GRADUALLY
BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT. MID CLOUDS OVER THE REGION WILL GET A FEW MORE
BREAKS OVERNIGHT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE VERY MUCH CLEARING GIVEN
A SHORT WAVE TO THE WEST AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS TO THE WEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL TO START NEXT WEEK...THEN MOVES OFF
THE COAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO
AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW TOMORROW IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS BY AFTERNOON.
THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE FOR ALL
ZONES.
A SURGE BEHIND A SHORTWAVE MAY PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS LATER
MONDAY...THEN MOVES OFF THE COAST ON BY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MAY
APPROACH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES OF A FOOT OR LESS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THESE DEPARTURES WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW AS
WINDS SHIFT AROUND FROM THE WEST.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN
NEAR TERM...SAR
SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN
AVIATION...SAR/PELOQUIN
MARINE...SAR/PELOQUIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAR
000
FXUS61 KLWX 081624 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1124 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. AFTER A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEW YORK
THEN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOUTH INTO FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HAS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MORE BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA.
MAIN UPDATE IS TO ADDRESS RADAR SATELLITE TRENDS. HAVE CUT OUT POPS
FOR ALL BUT LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. ALSO WENT MORE OPTIMISTIC ON
SKY COVER...WITH PARTLY SUNNY VERSUS MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SFC TROF AXIS SHUD BE E OF FCST AREA TNGT...WITH WLY WINDS THRU DP
LYR AS A SECOND SHRTWV TROF ROUNDS THE UPR LOW. UPSLP FLOW IN HIGH
TERRAIN OF WRN ZONES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD LGT RA/SN TNGT.
DRIER AIR INVADES BEHIND SFC BNDRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGES NOT MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE POPS...KEEPING
WITH PREV THINKING OF BASICALLY LOW CHANCE POPS D4-7. GFS HAS
SUBSTANTIALLY BACKED OFF WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE MID WEEK STORM
SYSTEM. THE SHRTWV THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS A LEE SFC LOW ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLE EFFECTIVELY WASHES OUT BY LATE TUE AFTER
CREATING A WINTER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
A PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER
OHIO VLY...STRETCHING THIN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING AND SCATTERING OUT
LIGHT AREAS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CNTRL APLCNS TUE INTO
WED. ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS...A SUBSEQUENT CLOSED LOW CUTTING
OFF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY THEN TAKES A SRN ROUTE DOWN INTO THE
SRN APLCNS...THEN SLIDING A POTENT AND GUSTY SFC LOW UP THE
APLCN CHAIN FRI-SAT. THE EUROPEAN MAKES LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH THE
MID-LATE WEEK DYNAMICS...BASICALLY DEVELOPING A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF OVER THE ERN US WHICH GRADUALLY DRAGS A TROF AXIS OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE COMPLETE DISCONTINUITY IN
HANDLING THESE FEATURES BEYOND D3...WILL KEEP WITH PERSISTENCE POPS.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A DIVE SUNDAY NIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE M/U30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLC...AND MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 DEG
COLDER. MANY AREAS XPCD TO DROP BELOW FRZG FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
THE GROWING SEASON ENDED A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. MOISTURE INCRS FROM
THE WEAK SLY FLOW TUE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND 50S FOR HIGHS. SKIES ARE XPCD TO BE
CONSISTENTLY CLOUDY-MOCLDY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ONCE THE WEAKENING
TROF SPREADS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM TUE THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR. LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT FOR THE BALTIMORE
TERMINALS...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS ELSEWHERE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON.
HIPRES AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE TUE INTO WED...KEEPING
PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THRU NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WILL BE UPDATING COASTALS TO REMOVE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.
WIND GUSTS OVER THE WATER HAVE SUBSIDED TO 15 KNOTS OR LESS.
A SCA POSTED FOR SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE WATERS...MARGINAL AND
INTERMITTENT 20 KT GUSTS IN WLY FLOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BREEZIER...WITH A STRONGER LOW LEVEL SPEED MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION AND NWLY WINDS INCRG MAINLY OVER THE WATER TWD MID-LATE AFTN
AS THE MID LEVEL TROF SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. HIPRES WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES RUNNING 1-1.5 FT ABV XPCD VALUES. WITH SLY WINDS ACRS BAY
TDA...THIS TREND MAY CONT THRU TDA. BUT FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT
XPCD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SAR
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...KRAMAR/SCHOOR
000
FXUS61 KLWX 081417
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
917 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. AFTER A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 12Z HAD A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEW YORK
THEN ALONG THE BLUE RIDGE AND SOUTH INTO FLORIDA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY HAS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH A FEW WEAK
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A FEW BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS OVER THE CENTRAL FORECAST AREA...BUT STILL PLENTY OF
CLOUDS AROUND.
MAIN UPDATE IS TO ADDRESS RADAR TRENDS. HAVE CUT BACK POPS WEST OF
THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE BAY. HAVE
ALSO ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER TO THE GRIDS...WITH A FEW
STORMS OVER LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND. WITH UPPER FLOW PARALLEL TO
THE FRONT...THIS FEATURE WILL NOT MOVE EAST VERY FAST. WILL CARRY
POPS IN THE EAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
ALSO MADE A FEW UPDATES TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID TO ACCOUNT
FOR SOME SUNSHINE CLOSER TO THE BLUE RIDGE. UPDATES WILL BE OUT
SHORTLY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SFC TROF AXIS SHUD BE E OF FCST AREA TNGT...WITH WLY WINDS THRU DP
LYR AS A SECOND SHRTWV TROF ROUNDS THE UPR LOW. UPSLP FLOW IN HIGH
TERRAIN OF WRN ZONES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD LGT RA/SN TNGT.
DRIER AIR INVADES BEHIND SFC BNDRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGES NOT MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE POPS...KEEPING
WITH PREV THINKING OF BASICALLY LOW CHANCE POPS D4-7. GFS HAS
SUBSTANTIALLY BACKED OFF WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE MID WEEK STORM
SYSTEM. THE SHRTWV THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS A LEE SFC LOW ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLE EFFECTIVELY WASHES OUT BY LATE TUE AFTER
CREATING A WINTER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
A PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER
OHIO VLY...STRETCHING THIN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING AND SCATTERING OUT
LIGHT AREAS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CNTRL APLCNS TUE INTO
WED. ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS...A SUBSEQUENT CLOSED LOW CUTTING
OFF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY THEN TAKES A SRN ROUTE DOWN INTO THE
SRN APLCNS...THEN SLIDING A POTENT AND GUSTY SFC LOW UP THE
APLCN CHAIN FRI-SAT. THE EUROPEAN MAKES LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH THE
MID-LATE WEEK DYNAMICS...BASICALLY DEVELOPING A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF OVER THE ERN US WHICH GRADUALLY DRAGS A TROF AXIS OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE COMPLETE DISCONTINUITY IN
HANDLING THESE FEATURES BEYOND D3...WILL KEEP WITH PERSISTENCE POPS.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A DIVE SUNDAY NIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE M/U30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLC...AND MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 DEG
COLDER. MANY AREAS XPCD TO DROP BELOW FRZG FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
THE GROWING SEASON ENDED A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. MOISTURE INCRS FROM
THE WEAK SLY FLOW TUE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND 50S FOR HIGHS. SKIES ARE XPCD TO BE
CONSISTENTLY CLOUDY-MOCLDY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ONCE THE WEAKENING
TROF SPREADS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM TUE THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE CONFINED TO ALONG AND EAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR...KBWI AND KMTN. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN EAST OF KDCA. BRIEF CLEARING MAY OCCUR LATE THIS
MORNING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL BACK IN BY AFTERNOON.
BKN LOW CLDS SHUD ERODE LATE THIS EVE.
HIPRES AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE TUE INTO WED...KEEPING
PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THRU NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE SOUTHERN BAY ZONES
THROUGH NOON. STILL HAVE A FEW OBSERVATION SITES REPORTING WINDS
OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
A SCA POSTED FOR SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE WATERS...MARGINAL AND
INTERMITTENT 20 KT GUSTS IN WLY FLOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BREEZIER...WITH A STRONGER LOW LEVEL SPEED MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION AND NWLY WINDS INCRG MAINLY OVER THE WATER TWD MID-LATE AFTN
AS THE MID LEVEL TROF SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. HIPRES WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES RUNNING 1-1.5 FT ABV XPCD VALUES. WITH SLY WINDS ACRS BAY
TDA...THIS TREND MAY CONT THRU TDA. BUT FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT
XPCD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ532>534-537.
&&
$$
MORNING UPDATE...SAR
PREVOUS DISCUSSION...KRAMAR/SCHOOR
000
FXUS61 KLWX 080827
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
327 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. AFTER A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS AT THE SURFACE THROUGH MID WEEK...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES
INCREASE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
APPROACHES.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DP UPR TROF OVER MI THIS MRNG...WITH SHRTWV TROF MOVG NE ALG SRN
PERIPHERY OF MAIN SYSTEM. SHRA FORMING IN ASSOCIATION WITH SHRTWV
TROF ATTM. SHRTWV TROF XPCD TO LIFT NE ACRS PA TDA...WITH LIFT
DECRG ACRS FCST AREA. THUS...PCPN SHUD GENLY BE CONFINED TO NRN
ZONES THIS MRNG. SOME PCPN ALONG SHRTWV TROF AXIS NOTED SWD INTO
NC...BUT TREND HAS BEEN DOWNWARD WITH THESE ECHOES.
ALTHOUGH BEST CHC FOR PCPN IN NRN SECTIONS...LWR CLD CVR IN SRN
ZONES MAY ALLOW FOR REDVLPMT OF SCT SHRA BY MID MRNG IN ERN/SERN
PORTIONS OF FCST AREA.
MAXIMA CONFINED TO MID-UPR 50S/LWR 60S XCPT MID 60S IN SRN ZONES
WHERE CLD CVR WILL BE LESS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SFC TROF AXIS SHUD BE E OF FCST AREA TNGT...WITH WLY WINDS THRU DP
LYR AS A SECOND SHRTWV TROF ROUNDS THE UPR LOW. UPSLP FLOW IN HIGH
TERRAIN OF WRN ZONES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD LGT RA/SN TNGT.
DRIER AIR INVADES BEHIND SFC BNDRY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ABOUT THE ONLY CHANGES NOT MADE TO THE EXTENDED WERE POPS...KEEPING
WITH PREV THINKING OF BASICALLY LOW CHANCE POPS D4-7. GFS HAS
SUBSTANTIALLY BACKED OFF WITH THE DYNAMICS OF THE MID WEEK STORM
SYSTEM. THE SHRTWV THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS A LEE SFC LOW ACROSS
THE TX/OK PANHANDLE EFFECTIVELY WASHES OUT BY LATE TUE AFTER
CREATING A WINTER STORM SYSTEM FOR THE CNTRL PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.
A PORTION OF THE MID LEVEL TROF WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER
OHIO VLY...STRETCHING THIN THE AMOUNT OF FORCING AND SCATTERING OUT
LIGHT AREAS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND CNTRL APLCNS TUE INTO
WED. ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS...A SUBSEQUENT CLOSED LOW CUTTING
OFF ACROSS THE LOWER MS VLY THEN TAKES A SRN ROUTE DOWN INTO THE
SRN APLCNS...THEN SLIDING A POTENT AND GUSTY SFC LOW UP THE
APLCN CHAIN FRI-SAT. THE EUROPEAN MAKES LESS OF AN ISSUE WITH THE
MID-LATE WEEK DYNAMICS...BASICALLY DEVELOPING A LONGWAVE UPPER
TROF OVER THE ERN US WHICH GRADUALLY DRAGS A TROF AXIS OFF THE
COAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE COMPLETE DISCONTINUITY IN
HANDLING THESE FEATURES BEYOND D3...WILL KEEP WITH PERSISTENCE POPS.
TEMPS WILL TAKE A DIVE SUNDAY NIGHT...DROPPING INTO THE M/U30S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID ATLC...AND MONDAY NIGHT LOWS ABOUT 5 DEG
COLDER. MANY AREAS XPCD TO DROP BELOW FRZG FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE
THE GROWING SEASON ENDED A COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO. MOISTURE INCRS FROM
THE WEAK SLY FLOW TUE INTO LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO
THE 40S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS AND 50S FOR HIGHS. SKIES ARE XPCD TO BE
CONSISTENTLY CLOUDY-MOCLDY FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...ONCE THE WEAKENING
TROF SPREADS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM TUE THRU NEXT
WEEKEND.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ONGOING SHRA MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS W OF BLUE RDG. XPC SAME TO
SPREAD EWD ACRS NRN ZONES TDA. ATTM...WILL CARRY SHRA ONLY AT KMRB
AND KCHO...AS CONFIDENCE IN SEWD DVLPMT OF PCPN COMPARATIVELY LOW.
AMENDMENTS TO TAFS ARE XPCD AS RADAR TRENDS BECOME EVIDENT. ANY
PCPN SHUD END BY LATE MRNG.
BKN LOW CLDS SHUD ERODE LATE THIS EVE.
HIPRES AND DRIER CONDITIONS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE TUE INTO WED...KEEPING
PCPN CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THRU NEXT FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
WITH SLY WINDS INCRG AND PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING THIS MRNG...
XPCG WINDS TO INCR SLGTLY ACRS SRN MRN ZONES. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE
SMALL CRAFT ADZY THRU THIS MRNG. GUSTS TO 20 KT WILL BE PSBL.
WINDS SHUD SUBSIDE THIS AFTN WITH APRCH OF SFC TROF AXIS.
A SCA POSTED FOR SUNDAY AFTN ACROSS THE WATERS...MARGINAL AND
INTERMITTENT 20 KT GUSTS IN WLY FLOW. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT
BREEZIER...WITH A STRONGER LOW LEVEL SPEED MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE
REGION AND NWLY WINDS INCRG MAINLY OVER THE WATER TWD MID-LATE AFTN
AS THE MID LEVEL TROF SLIDES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. HIPRES WILL
INFLUENCE THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A LOPRES SYSTEM XPCD TO
MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM MIDWEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES RUNNING 1-1.5 FT ABV XPCD VALUES. WITH SLY WINDS ACRS BAY
TDA...THIS TREND MAY CONT THRU TDA. BUT FLOODING ISSUES ARE NOT
XPCD.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 5 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
ANZ530>537.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR ANZ532>534-537.
&&
$$
KRAMAR/SCHOOR
000
FXUS61 KLWX 080217 AAA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
917 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SKIES CURRENTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FCST AREA BUT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
SEEN ON SATELLITE/RADAR IMAGERY WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS ATTM WILL
MOVE IN QUICKLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A CDFNT APPROACHES. GUIDANCE
STILL EXHIBITS SMALL TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE PRECIP OVERNIGHT
AND TOMORROW. GFS AND RUC MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FASTER AND
NAM/SREF SLOWER. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF PRECIP TO THE FASTER
MODELS AS LATEST 00Z NAM AND 21Z SREF HAVE TRENDED FASTER. IN ANY
CASE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE LIGHT DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE AND BEST
UPPER SUPPORT PASSING TO THE NORTH. TIMING OF SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE
BETWEEN 09-15Z SATURDAY.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP...AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT INCREDIBLY COLD AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SET UP THEREFORE ONLY HAVE
LOW POPS FOR UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS.
OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
QUICKLY RETREATS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN INVASION OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. 00Z ECMWF IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE NOR AS FAR NORTH...BUT HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
GFS BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN BACK INTO THE CWA TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THERE/S MORE DISAGREEMENT THEREAFTER...AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR CWA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OR NOT.
FOLLOWING HPC...HAVE TAKEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT TIMING INDIVIDUAL WAVES/AREAS OF
LIFT WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED MORE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK /FRIDAY/...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z NAM WITH
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
AFFECT THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND SREFS BRING MVFR AND EVEN IFR CEILINGS TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE NAM BRINGING IN ONLY TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES
LATER SATURDAY MORNING. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND
SREFS...BUT NOT AS PESSIMISTIC YET. NO IFR CONDITIONS MENTIONED IN
THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY-MONDAY...BUT MOVES OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS /GUSTS/ MAY BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IF
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THAN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY...BUT QUICKLY RETREATS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST WINDS
TO SWITCH TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DEPARTURES
MAY INCREASE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF FOOT...BUT ALL LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...ROSA
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN
000
FXUS61 KLWX 071956 CCA
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NAMES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
255 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TONIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN IOWA
AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MICHIGAN SOUTH TO MISSISSIPPI. THIS
IS CLEARLY SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A NATIONAL
RADAR PICTURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S ALONG THE BAY WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ALL DAY...AROUND 70
ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 95 AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. AFTERNOON CU FIELD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL ONLY FILL
BACK IN TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY THE CLOUD INCREASE.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z...NOT MAKING IT TO
THE METRO CORRIDOR UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z. WENT WARMER THAN THE ADJ MET
AND MAV NUMBERS GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO FWC NUMBERS...WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MID TO UPPER 40S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD
FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SPC HAS A GENERAL THUNDER LINE FROM LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND TO BALTIMORE AND LOCATIONS EAST. WITH SUCH A SMALL
AREA BEING COVERED AND LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST FOR THUNDER...WILL KEEP JUST SHOWERS MENTIONED.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM
TOMORROW. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY GOING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT A LOT OF COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP...AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT INCREDIBLY COLD AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SET UP THEREFORE ONLY HAVE
LOW POPS FOR UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS.
OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
QUICKLY RETREATS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN INVASION OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. 00Z ECMWF IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE NOR AS FAR NORTH...BUT HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
GFS BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN BACK INTO THE CWA TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THERE/S MORE DISAGREEMENT THEREAFTER...AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR CWA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OR NOT.
FOLLOWING HPC...HAVE TAKEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT TIMING INDIVIDUAL WAVES/AREAS OF
LIFT WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED MORE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK /FRIDAY/...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z NAM WITH
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
AFFECT THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND SREFS BRING MVFR AND EVEN IFR CEILINGS TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE NAM BRINGING IN ONLY TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES
LATER SATURDAY MORNING. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND
SREFS...BUT NOT AS PESSIMISTIC YET. NO IFR CONDITIONS MENTIONED IN
THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY-MONDAY...BUT MOVES OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS /GUSTS/ MAY BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IF
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THAN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY...BUT QUICKLY RETREATS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST WINDS
TO SWITCH TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DEPARTURES
MAY INCREASE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF FOOT...BUT ALL LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN
NEAR TERM...SAR
SHORT TERM...SAR
LONG TERM...PELOQUIN
AVIATION...SAR/PELOQUIN
MARINE...SAR/PELOQUIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAR
000
FXUS61 KLWX 071943
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
243 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES AWAY TONIGHT...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING AN INCREASED
CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 18Z HAS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN IOWA
AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MICHIGAN SOUTH TO MISSISSIPPI. THIS
IS CLEARLY SEEN IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS A NATIONAL
RADAR PICTURE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE MID
60S ALONG THE BAY WHERE CLOUDS HAVE BEEN ALL DAY...AROUND 70
ELSEWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
CLOUDS BETWEEN INTERSTATE 95 AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY WILL CONTINUE TO
DISSIPATE AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. AFTERNOON CU FIELD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL ONLY FILL
BACK IN TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE REGION IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH MIDNIGHT...WITH ONLY THE CLOUD INCREASE.
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 06Z...NOT MAKING IT TO
THE METRO CORRIDOR UNTIL 09Z TO 12Z. WENT WARMER THAN THE ADJ MET
AND MAV NUMBERS GIVEN THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. WENT CLOSER TO FWC NUMBERS...WITH LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO
THE LOWER 50S EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...MID TO UPPER 40S WEST.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE NAM...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE COLD
FRONT WILL STILL BE OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES DECREASE
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. SPC HAS A GENERAL THUNDER LINE FROM LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND TO BALTIMORE AND LOCATIONS EAST. WITH SUCH A SMALL
AREA BEING COVERED AND LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY WILL
EXIST FOR THUNDER...WILL KEEP JUST SHOWERS MENTIONED.
BOTH THE NAM AND GFS ARE SLOW TO CLEAR CLOUDS WITH THIS SYSTEM
TOMORROW. THEREFORE WILL KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY GOING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIGHT AND NOT A LOT OF COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN
TODAY...BUT STILL IN THE MID 60S.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL BE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY EVENING. WESTERLY FLOW IN
THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP...AND BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALTHOUGH
THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT IS NOT INCREDIBLY COLD AND LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.
THERE MAY BE A LITTLE BIT OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT A CLASSIC SET UP THEREFORE ONLY HAVE
LOW POPS FOR UPSLOPE RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS.
OTHERWISE...MOST OTHER LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...BUT
QUICKLY RETREATS OFF THE COAST ON TUESDAY. 12Z GFS CONTINUES TO
INDICATE AN INVASION OF MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. 00Z ECMWF IS
NOT AS AGGRESSIVE NOR AS FAR NORTH...BUT HAVE LEANED MORE TOWARD THE
GFS BRINGING CHANCES OF RAIN BACK INTO THE CWA TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT.
THERE/S MORE DISAGREEMENT THEREAFTER...AS TO WHETHER ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF MOISTURE WILL AFFECT OUR CWA WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY OR NOT.
FOLLOWING HPC...HAVE TAKEN THE MORE PESSIMISTIC APPROACH WITH MORE
CLOUDS AND CHANCES OF RAIN...BUT TIMING INDIVIDUAL WAVES/AREAS OF
LIFT WILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED MORE IN FUTURE FORECASTS. TOWARD THE
END OF THE WEEK /FRIDAY/...BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z NAM WITH
ENSEMBLE SUPPORT INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER WAVE TO
AFFECT THE CWA.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS AND SREFS BRING MVFR AND EVEN IFR CEILINGS TO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE NAM IS MORE
OPTIMISTIC WITH THE NAM BRINGING IN ONLY TEMPORARY MVFR VISIBILITIES
LATER SATURDAY MORNING. WENT MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND
SREFS...BUT NOT AS PESSIMISTIC YET. NO IFR CONDITIONS MENTIONED IN
THE 18Z TAF PACKAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY-MONDAY...BUT MOVES OFF THE
COAST ON TUESDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH BRINGS AN INCREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES FOR THE MID WEEK.
&&
.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT WINDS WILL STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
BEHIND A COLD FRONT...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS /GUSTS/ MAY BE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE IF
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHWEST THAN WEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY...BUT QUICKLY RETREATS ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WEST WINDS
TO SWITCH TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT ABOVE PREDICTED. THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST
OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN SLIGHT INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES. DEPARTURES
MAY INCREASE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL HALF FOOT...BUT ALL LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...PELOQUIN
NEAR TERM...PELOQUIN
SHORT TERM...PELOQUIN
LONG TERM...SAR
AVIATION...SAR/PELOQUIN
MARINE...SAR/PELOQUIN
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...SAR
000
FXUS61 KLWX 071513
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1013 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR TODAY IS THE SKY COVER. MOSTLY SUNNY
WEST OF A LINE FROM FREDERICK COUNTY MARYLAND TO DC TO LOWER
SOUTHERN MARYLAND. WHILE THE BULK OF THE CLOUDS ARE FURTHER EAST
ON THE DELMARVA...A PERIPHERAL BAND LOOKS TO BE TRYING TO SKIRT
SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUD FIELD. THEN...THERE ARE
THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
SUNNY SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 WILL
GRADUALLY FILL IN WITH CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WILL TRY TO
WORD THE ZONES ACCORDINGLY.
LOOKS LIKE A WARM NOVEMBER DAY...WITH HIGHS APPROACHING RECORDS.
NO CHANGES TO CURRENT TEMPERATURE FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD REACH
INTO THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE IF THE
THICKER CLOUDS STICK AROUND FROM BALTIMORE TO JUST EAST OF DC INTO
LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS MENTIONED...CUTOFF LOW OVER UPPER MIDWEST. JET RUNNING FM THE
GULF STATES TO LAKE HURON W/ THE SFC CD FNT CAUGHT UP IN IT.
SHOWER ACTVTY SOMEWHAT SPOTTY ALONG/AHEAD OF IT. BUT THIS IS
PROGGED TO MAKE A SLOW STEADY EWD PROGRESSION...AND HV MAINTAINED
THE AFTR MDNGT POPS...BEGINNING IN THE W AND REACHING THE BAY BY
MRNG. QPF`S WILL BE LOW.
NOT A COOL NGT FOR NOV - M40S FAR W...M50S E.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COUPLE OF UPPER VORT LOBES ROTATE AROUND THE GRT LKS REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK. THEY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHRA/S AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS OVER MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...GRT LKS AND INTO NRN PRTNS OF THE OH VLY. LITTLE
TO NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE DOWN INTO THE MID ATLNC. THE
FIRST VORT MAX WILL ACROSS WI/MI ON SAT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CNTL APLCHNS EARLY SAT. PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
MORE STEADY ACTIVITY FROM THE PTMC HILANDS AND ACROSS THE
MASON-DIXON LINE W/ NRN MD SEEING THE BEST CHNCS...TAPERING OFF
SOUTH OF THE I-66 CRDR. MORE ISLTD SHRA ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE I-95 CRDR DRNG THE EARLY AFTN SAT W/ PSBLE BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT
AND STRENGTHENING OF THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE MID ATLNC COAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER TEMPS BUT STILL NOT AN ARCTIC BLAST
SITUATION. MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINING WRAPPED UP IN THE UPPER
LOW REGIME AS IT ROTATES UP N/WRD INTO THE ERN QUEBEC. BREEZY CONDS
ON SUNDAY AS FIRST UPPER VORT SLIDES THE TROF AXIS OVER THE MID
ATLNC...PICKING WINDS OUT OF THE WEST DRNG THE AFTN. THE STARK BUT
SHORT-LIVED ZONAL FLOW REGIME OVER THE MID ATLNC MONDAY INTO TUES
WILL KEEP TEMPS MODERATED INTO THE M50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH SFC
WIND SPEEDS NOT AS HIGH AS UNDER NW FLOW BUT MONDAY WILL A FAIRLY
DRY AUTUMN DAY.
THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM LOOKING LESS DYNAMIC...MORE UNCERTAIN AND
LOOKS TO AFFECT THE ERN SEABOARD FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GFS NOW IN A
BIT MORE AGREEMENT W/ ECMWF /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ ON THE SLOW DOWN OF
THE SETTING UP OF THE MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS
LAG WILL KEEP THE MID MS VLY UNDER PRECIP FOR LONGER...AS WELL AS
THE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE OH
VLY FOR LONGER AS WELL. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP COULD REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE MID ATLNC FROM TUES INTO WED. KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHNC RANGE
THO...STILL THINKING THE TROF MAY DEEPEN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE SRN PLAINS...MAKING A DIRECT ROUTE INTO THE MID ATLNC FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL BE SHORT LIVED...SHOULD
BE CLEARED OUT BY NOON.
A COLD FRONT W/ INTERMITTENT BREEZY CONDS AND A FEW SCTD-ISLTD
SHRA/S...ESPC ACROSS NRN MD AND AREAS NORTH OF I-66. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRES AND DRIER CONDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPTD TO IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE TUES
INTO WED...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THRU NEXT
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO PROBS ON THE WATERS TDA OR TNGT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT AFTN/EVNG. WINDS EXPTD
TO BE JUST BELOW SCA CONDS FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUNDAY EXPTD TO
BE A BIT MORE BREEZY...W/ SCA CONDS ANTICIPATED FOR A PERIOD OF THE
LATE MRNG/AFTN FROM THE GUSTY W-NW/RLY WINDS...ESPC THE NRN BAY
REGION. HIGH PRES WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION OF EARLY NEXT WEEK...W/
A LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPTD TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM UPDATE...SAR
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WOODY!/GMS
000
FXUS61 KLWX 070906
AFDLWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
406 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2008
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
PASS THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
REGION EARLY IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY LOW PRESSURE COMING OUT OF
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY DURING MIDWEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
WENT OUT AND TOOK AN OB AT 1 AM - LOW OVC. TOOK ANOTHER AT 3 AM -
SKC. 11-3.9 MU STLT SHOWS A VERY CLR DEMARKATION BTWN THE 2. ATTM
CLRG JUST TO THE W OF DC. THEREFORE QUSTN DURG RMNDR OF OVRNGT HRS
WL BE HOW MUCH FOG IS GOING TO FORM? IN MANY PLACES SVRL DEGS BTWN
TEMP AND DWPT. WE`LL CONT TO MONITOR AND MAY HV TO DO A PRE-DAWN
UPDATE..OR ATL EAST ISSUE SOME NOWCASTS...B4 SHIFT IS OVER.
NEXT QUSTN IS HOW MUCH CLD DVLPMNT WL THERE BE TDA? MDLS REALLY
HANG ONTO THE LO LVL MOISTURE...IN FACT THESE WANT IT TO BE CLDY
RIGHT NOW RATHER THAN CLR WHICH MAKES ME WONDER ABT THE ABILITY TO
HANDLE CLDS TDA. BUT METEOROLOGICALLY - ALTHO NOT A LOT THERE HAS
BEEN SOME RAFL IN LAST TWO DAYS THIS COULD CERTAINLY TRANSLATE
INTO CU FORMATION THIS AFTN.
HIGH TEMPS TDA ACTUALLY CLOSE TO RECORDS. I`M FCSTG 72 AT IAD.
RECORD IS 74. DCA AND BWI RECORDS ARE A FEW DEGS HIGHER AND PRBLY
WON`T BE TOUCHED. BUT OVERALL A WARM DAY GIVEN UPR LVL RDG AND
SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF CD FNT CURRENTLY ENTERING INDIANA.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS MENTIONED...CUTOFF LOW OVER UPPER MIDWEST. JET RUNNING FM THE
GULF STATES TO LAKE HURON W/ THE SFC CD FNT CAUGHT UP IN IT.
SHOWER ACTVTY SOMEWHAT SPOTTY ALONG/AHEAD OF IT. BUT THIS IS
PROGGED TO MAKE A SLOW STEADY EWD PROGRESSION...AND HV MAINTAINED
THE AFTR MDNGT POPS...BEGINNING IN THE W AND REACHING THE BAY BY
MRNG. QPF`S WILL BE LOW.
NOT A COOL NGT FOR NOV - M40S FAR W...M50S E.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COUPLE OF UPPER VORT LOBES ROTATE AROUND THE GRT LKS REGION THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY IN THE WEEK. THEY WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHRA/S AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS OVER MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST...GRT LKS AND INTO NRN PRTNS OF THE OH VLY. LITTLE
TO NONE OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL TRANSLATE DOWN INTO THE MID ATLNC. THE
FIRST VORT MAX WILL ACROSS WI/MI ON SAT...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE CNTL APLCHNS EARLY SAT. PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE
MORE STEADY ACTIVITY FROM THE PTMC HILANDS AND ACROSS THE
MASON-DIXON LINE W/ NRN MD SEEING THE BEST CHNCS...TAPERING OFF
SOUTH OF THE I-66 CRDR. MORE ISLTD SHRA ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE I-95 CRDR DRNG THE EARLY AFTN SAT W/ PSBLE BRIEF REDEVELOPMENT
AND STRENGTHENING OF THE FRONT AS IT NEARS THE MID ATLNC COAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...COOLER TEMPS BUT STILL NOT AN ARCTIC BLAST
SITUATION. MUCH OF THE COLDER AIR REMAINING WRAPPED UP IN THE UPPER
LOW REGIME AS IT ROTATES UP N/WRD INTO THE ERN QUEBEC. BREEZY CONDS
ON SUNDAY AS FIRST UPPER VORT SLIDES THE TROF AXIS OVER THE MID
ATLNC...PICKING WINDS OUT OF THE WEST DRNG THE AFTN. THE STARK BUT
SHORT-LIVED ZONAL FLOW REGIME OVER THE MID ATLNC MONDAY INTO TUES
WILL KEEP TEMPS MODERATED INTO THE M50S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...WITH SFC
WIND SPEEDS NOT AS HIGH AS UNDER NW FLOW BUT MONDAY WILL A FAIRLY
DRY AUTUMN DAY.
THE MIDWEEK STORM SYSTEM LOOKING LESS DYNAMIC...MORE UNCERTAIN AND
LOOKS TO AFFECT THE ERN SEABOARD FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. GFS NOW IN A
BIT MORE AGREEMENT W/ ECMWF /AT LEAST INITIALLY/ ON THE SLOW DOWN OF
THE SETTING UP OF THE MID LEVEL TROF OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THIS
LAG WILL KEEP THE MID MS VLY UNDER PRECIP FOR LONGER...AS WELL AS
THE AREAS OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT ALONG THE OH
VLY FOR LONGER AS WELL. MUCH OF THIS PRECIP COULD REMAIN JUST NORTH
OF THE MID ATLNC FROM TUES INTO WED. KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHNC RANGE
THO...STILL THINKING THE TROF MAY DEEPEN A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
THE SRN PLAINS...MAKING A DIRECT ROUTE INTO THE MID ATLNC FOR THE
END OF NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOG FORMATION IS PSBL AT THE AIRPORTS THRU 13Z...THEN VFR TDA. LO
CHC OF RW BY MRNG SAT.
A COLD FRONT W/ INTERMITTENT BREEZY CONDS AND A FEW SCTD-ISLTD
SHRA/S...ESPC ACROSS NRN MD AND AREAS NORTH OF I-66. BEHIND THE
FRONT...HIGH PRES AND DRIER CONDS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
ANOTHER LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPTD TO IMPACT THE REGION BY LATE TUES
INTO WED...KEEPING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE REGION THRU NEXT
FRIDAY.
&&
.MARINE...
NO PROBS ON THE WATERS TDA OR TNGT.
A COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WATERS SAT AFTN/EVNG. WINDS EXPTD
TO BE JUST BELOW SCA CONDS FROM THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SUNDAY EXPTD TO
BE A BIT MORE BREEZY...W/ SCA CONDS ANTICIPATED FOR A PERIOD OF THE
LATE MRNG/AFTN FROM THE GUSTY W-NW/RLY WINDS...ESPC THE NRN BAY
REGION. HIGH PRES WILL INFLUENCE THE REGION OF EARLY NEXT WEEK...W/
A LOW PRES SYSTEM EXPTD TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
&&
.LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DC...NONE.
MD...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
&&
$$
PRODUCTS...WOODY!/GMS
| 
