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000 AXUS74 KEPZ 172254 RRA DGTEPZ NMZ022>025-030>32-TXC055>056- DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TEXAS /SANTA TERESA NEW MEXICO 900 500 PM FRI APR 17 2009 ...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS NOW EXIST IN EXTREME LUNA COUNTY...THE EXTREME EASTERN PORTION OF DONA ANA COUNTY...VIRTUALLY ALL OF OTERO COUNTY EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY...SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ALSO EXIST FOR EL PASO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES...MODERATE DROUGHT CONDITIONS EXIT EVERY WHERE ELSE EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF HIDALGO COUNTY...WESTERN HALF OF GRANT COUNTY AND EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF SIERRA COUNTY WHERE ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO EXIST... SYNOPSIS... JANUARY THROUGH MID APRIL OF THIS YEAR GOT OFF TO AN EXTREMELY DRY START IN THE BORDERLAND. JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE AREA RECEIVED LESS THAN 25% OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION WITH AROUND TWO-THIRDS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS RECEIVING LESS THAN 10% OF NORMAL PRECIPITATION. FOR EXAMPLE...SO FAR THIS YEAR EL PASO HAS RECEIVED ONLY .08 INCHES WHICH IS 6.7% OF NORMAL. PRECIPITATION FOR MOST PLACES OTHER THAN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WAS DOWN NEARLY 1 INCH BELOW NORMAL. A FORMAL LA NINA ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FEB 5 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF NOAA NOTING THAT LA NINA CONDITIONS (BELOW NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN) ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE SPRING SEASON OF 2009 THEN SLOWLY FADING TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS. THE LA NINA ADVISORY IS EXPECTED TO END BY MAY AS INDICATIONS ARE THAT WE ARE HEADED INTO NEUTRAL ENSO CONDITIONS BY EARLY SUMMER. THE CURRENT U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR MAP CAN BE FOUND AT...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML ...SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK... THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK WHICH FORECASTS THE DROUGHT TENDENCY FROM APRIL 16, 2009 THROUGH JULY 2009 SHOWS THAT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO IMPROVE WITH IMPACTS EASING DURING THIS PERIOD FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. SO ALTHOUGH SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS HAVE RESURFACED IN SOME AREAS...HOPEFULLY THEY WILL BE RELATIVELY SHORT LIVED AS WE SLOWLY EASE OUT OF LA NINA CONDITIONS BY THE END OF SPRING. VIEW THESE FORECASTS AT HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/FORECAST.HTML IMPACTS... D2 = SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY CROP OR PASTURE LOSSES. FIRE RISK IS VERY HIGH WITH SOME WATER SHORTAGES. IF WATER ARE NEEDED THEY WOULD BE TYPICALLY VOLUNTARY OR LOCALLY MANDATED. D2 DROUGHT IS DEFINED AS A 1 IN 10 YEAR DROUGHT. D1 = MODERATE CONDITIONS ARE CHARACTERIZED BY SOME DAMAGE TO CROPS AND PASTURES WITH HIGH FIRE RISK AND STREAM AND RESERVOIR LEVELS THAT ARE FOR THE MOST PART LOW. WATER SHORTAGES START TO DEVELOP AND IN SOME AREAS VOLUNTARY WATER USE RESTRICTIONS MAY BE REQUESTED. D0 = ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS SIGNAL THE POSSIBLE ONSET OF DROUGHT WITH SLOW CROP GROWTH ELEVATED FIRE RISK DANGER TO ABOVE AVERAGE. THE MAIN IMPACT OF THE SLOWLY DEVELOPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL BE TO FURTHER AUGMENT THE FIRE DANGER. FIRE DANGER CATEGORIES THIS WINTER WHICH WERE RUNNING MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HIGH ARE NOW STARTING TO MOVE UPWARD INTO THE HIGH TO VERY HIGH CATEGORIES AT TIMES AS WE APPROACH THE DRY AND WINDY TIME OF THE YEAR DURING WHICH WE ENTER THE PRIMARY FIRE SEASON FOR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. REMEMBER THAT DROUGHT IS THE LEADING HAZARD IN ECONOMIC LOSES EACH YEAR IN THE UNITED STATES. THE EXTREME DROUGHT OVER CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE LAST YEAR HAS INFLICTED A ONE BILLION DOLLAR LOST TO AGRICULTURE INTERESTS IN THE LONE START STATE ALREADY. PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOKS... A FORMAL LA NINA ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FEB 5 BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF NOAA NOTING THAT LA NINA CONDITIONS (BELOW NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN) ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE SPRING SEASON OF 2009 THEN FADE TO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS BY SUMMER. THE IMPLICATION IS FOR DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER FOR THE SPRING SEASON WHICH IS HISTORICALLY THE DRIEST PART OF THE YEAR IN SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF NOAA PREDICTS WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THAN AVERAGE THOUGH APRIL OF THIS YEAR CENTERED OVER NEW MEXICO. HOWEVER ABOVE NORMAL MEAN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE NOW FORECAST BY THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER OF NOAA FROM MAY THROUGH AUGUST OF THIS YEAR. WITH A WEAK LA NINA PREVAILING THIS SPRING. LA NINA CONDITIONS IN GENERAL DO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE SUMMER RAINFALL SIGNATURE AND THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THIS LA NINA MAY FADE INTO NEUTRAL CONDITIONS BY SUMMER. NEXT ISSUANCE DATE... THIS PRODUCT WILL USUALLY BE UPDATED AT LEAST ONCE A MONTH OR MORE OFTEN IF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN WEATHER...WATER SUPPLY...OR DROUGHT CONDITIONS OCCUR. RELATED WEB SITES... ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CURRENT OR PAST DROUGHT CONDITIONS MAY BE FOUND AT THE FOLLOWING WEB ADDRESSES /USE LOWER CASE LETTERS/... U.S DROUGHT MONITOR...HTTP://DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/DM/MONITOR.HTML NWS PRECIPITATION ANALYSIS PAGE... HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/RFCSHARE/PRECIP_ANALYSIS_NEW.PHP PUBLIC LANDS INFORMATION CENTER... HTTP://PUBLICLANDS.ORG/FIRENEWS/PRESSRELEASES/NM.PHP CLIMATOLOGY AND PALEOCLIMATOLOGY LINKS... HTTP://WWW.DROUGHT.UNL.EDU/WHATIS/CLIMLINKS.HTM WESTERN REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTER... HTTP://WWW.WRCC.DRI.EDU/INDEX.HTML CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER...HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/ ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION... NWS...HTTP://AHPS.SRH.NOAA.GOV/INDEX.PHP?WFO=ABQ USGS...HTTP://WATERDATA.USGS.GOV/NM/NWIS/CURRENT?TYPE=FLOW ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS... THE U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR IS A MULTI-AGENCY EFFORT INVOLVING THE NOAA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND NATIONAL CLIMATIC DATA CENTER... THE USDA...STATE AND REGIONAL CLIMATE CENTERS AND THE NATIONAL DROUGHT MITIGATION CENTER. NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 7955 AIRPORT ROAD SANTA TERESA NM 88008 PHONE...505-589-4088 DAVID NOVLAN CLIMATE FOCAL POINT DAVE.NOVLAN@NOAA.GOV WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/ELPASO $$ NOVLAN