PRISM 3D: Global Warming Analysis

PRISM3D Project

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Introduction

Estimates of global warming during the mid-Piacenzian Age of the Pliocene Epoch (~3.3 - 3.0 Ma) suggest temperatures were 2°C greater than today. This level of warming is within the range of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates of global temperature increases for the 21st century, and no other time period in the past three million years approaches this level of warming. Scientists have identified many primary forcing mechanisms that contribute to the current global warming, but there is uncertainty about the relative impact of each forcing and associated feedbacks. The mid- Piacenzian presents the reverse situation: global data sets reveal the mature state of a warmer world, but the forcings that led to Pliocene warming are only partially identified. The data so far compiled by the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping group (PRISM) suggest a combination of increased greenhouse gases and increased ocean heat transport acted concurrently through undetermined feedback relationships.

PRISM/Global Warming Analysis is a collaborative data analysis and climate modeling effort. The primary goal is to create three-dimensional global data sets of Pliocene conditions, which will form the most comprehensive global reconstruction for any warm period prior to the recent past. The data sets will be then used to drive numerical simulations designed to explore the impact of climate forcings and feedbacks during the Pliocene. The Pliocene world provides an unequaled paleo-laboratory to test the sensitivity of the physical models that we rely upon for estimating future warming impacts. It challenges our understanding of the sensitivity of key components of the climate system and how we simulate that system: polar vs. tropical sensitivity, the role of ocean circulation in a warming climate, the hydrological impact of altered storm tracks, and the regional climate impacts of modified atmospheric and oceanic energy transport systems.

PRISM3D Collaborating Institutions

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Page Last Modified: 7 May 2009