ABSTRACT

This bulletin, written by J. Paul Dallavalle and Mary C. Erickson of the National Weather Service Techniques Development Laboratory, describes the format of the new Aviation (AVN) Model Output Statistic messages. The messages became operational during the 1200 UTC forecast cycle on May 30, 2000.

These messages contain forecasts of the:

• max/min temperature;
• time-specific surface temperature and dew point;
• total sky cover;
• surface wind direction and wind speed;
• probability of precipitation (PoP) for 6- and 12-h periods;
• probability of thunderstorms and conditional probability of severe thunderstorms for 6- and 12-h periods;
• conditional probability of precipitation type (freezing, snow, or liquid) and a corresponding category;
• categories of quantitative precipitation for 6- and 12-h periods;
• snowfall amount; and
• categories of ceiling height, visibility, and obstruction to vision.

Guidance is provided for projections of 6 to 72 hours for most weather elements.

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