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FGUS74 KBMX 220956
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ALZ011>015-017>050-222100-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
500 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2008

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

AS TROPICAL STORM FAY TRACKS WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST THIS
WEEKEND...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA.

ALTHOUGH CURRENT SOIL CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA...AND LAKE AND RIVER FLOWS REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL...
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM THE REMNANTS OF FAY MAY CAUSE PROBLEMS
IN SOME AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.  AT THIS TIME...RAINFALL THROUGH
SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM ONE INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE
NORTH...INCLUDING BIRMINGHAM AND ANNISTON...TO 3 INCHES OR MORE
ACROSS THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...INCLUDING
DEMOPOLIS...TROY...AND EUFAULA. BASED ON THE ABOVE FACTORS AND THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRACK OF FAY...THE GREATEST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING ON ANY MAIN-STEM RIVERS WOULD BE IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA...
ON PORTIONS OF THE CHOCTAWHATCHEE...PEA...AND CONECUH RIVERS. EVEN
THEN...ONLY MINOR TO MODERATE FLOODING WOULD BE EXPECTED. SMALLER
CREEKS AND STREAMS WITH SMALLER DRAINAGE BASINS WOULD BE MORE
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING.

WHILE THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS LOW AT THIS TIME...A
SLIGHT CHANGE IN THE SPEED AND PATH OF THIS STORM COULD RESULT IN 
HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS...AND AN INCREASED THREAT OF FLOODING.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS 
DEVELOPING SITUATION AND A FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. 
THE THREAT OF FLOODING WILL BE HIGHEST ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY 
NIGHT.

FOR MORE INFORMATION CONCERNING THE FORECAST TRACK AND POSSIBLE
EFFECTS FROM FAY...CONSULT THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND INFORMATION FROM
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR TO YOUR LOCAL NEWS MEDIA OUTLET
FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION AND FORECASTS CONCERNING THIS WEATHER
SITUATION.

$$