Latest Seasonal Assessment - The drought over central and southern Texas has recently expanded mostly northward into Oklahoma, and is expected to either persist or intensify during the next three months. In the West, drought is forecast to persist over much of California. This is primarily because the main storm track is forecast to shift northward for the late winter, affecting mostly Oregon and Washington. Across the northern tier of states, signals from La Niña composites favor at least limited improvement for northwest Montana and for southwestern North Dakota. For the Great Lakes area, improvement in current drought conditions is expected for central Wisconsin, though prospects for significant relief are less likely over northern Wisconsin and adjoining upper Michigan. Small areas of improvement are also indicated across portions of the upper Ohio Valley and central Appalachians, with some improvement expected over the southern Appalachians/Piedmont area. In the southern Atlantic region, the Feb-Apr 2009 precipitation forecast shows a tilt in the odds for drier than normal conditions. This results in drought expansion from Florida into coastal Georgia and South Carolina.

Forecaster: A. Artusa

Next Outlook issued: February 5, 2009 at 8:30 AM EDT