Argentine February 2005 Field Travel Summary

A team of analysts from USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) traveled through the central Argentine crop region during February 2005 to assess crop conditions for corn and soybeans. Argentine 2004/05 corn production is estimated at a record 19.5 million tons, up 30 percent from last year and soybean production is also a record—39 million tons, up 18 percent from last year. Record corn yields of 7.22 tons per hectare and near record soybean yields of 2.71 tons per hectare are estimated.

The team traveled through key delegations in northern Buenos Aires , southern Santa Fe and eastern Cordoba Provinces . Ten delegations were covered. [See figure 1, map.]  Soybeans dominate this zone in central Argentina . Over 60 percent of production for Argentina ’s soybeans is located in these 10 delegations. Corn is also very important in this region and 55 percent of production occurs here. To a lesser extent, sorghum and sunflower are present.  The percentages of the national crop covered by those delegations are in table 1.

Table 1: Percent of National Crop in 10 Delegations

For more information regarding crop area maps for the major crops in Argentina , please refer to the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division website (http://www.fas.usda.gov/pecad)..

Corn

USDA forecasts Argentina ’s 2004/05 corn production at a record 19.5 million tons, up 2.0 million from last month and up 30 percent from last season’s revised estimate of 15.0 million.  Harvested area is forecast at 2.70 million hectares, up 17 percent from last year.  Yield is forecast at a record 7.22 tons per hectare. A 10-year trend for corn is 6.731 tons per hectare. Argentine corn yields have increased greatly over the last several years due to higher fertilizer rates and hybrid seeds. [See figure 2, corn yield chart.]

Corn was in excellent condition in areas traveled by the FAS team during mid-February. Observed fields in central Argentine corn areas were expected to have record yields. Corn stage is at late grainfill to dent. The main harvest is expected to start by mid-March. Crop conditions for corn planted in September were nearly ideal.  The vegetative stages had plenty of soil moisture and precipitation which carried the crop into the silk-tassel stage (late December and early January). Crop conditions for corn planted in October have been adequate to good; however, low precipitation in late January may have reduced yield potential for some areas. We observed these problems in the delegations of Pergamino, Buenos Aires Province and Canada de Gomez, Santa Fe Province . The vegetation conditions in these localized areas are worse than last year as seen in the SPOT-Vegetation satellite imagery, January 20, 2005 . However, the majority of the image shows better vegetation conditions than at the same time last year. [See figure 3, satellite image.]

Corn in these localized areas was affected by lower precipitation amounts in December and January and high temperatures in January. This combination of weather “flash dried” the crop at grainfill, leading to smaller ear sizes and less weight. [See figure 4, photo 1.] The vast majority of corn, however, is doing better than last year and high yields are expected. Most of the observed fields were in great to excellent condition. Plant populations were high, ears had filled out completely, and the corn height was very tall. [See figure 5, photo 2.] Double ears were prevalent along the outside rows, but the majority of fields observed were single ear varieties. Record yields are expected in the delegations of Junin, Lincoln, Bragado in northern Buenos Aires Province ; in Venardo Tuerto, Casilda and Canada de Gomez in Santa Fe Province ; and Marcos Juarez, Villa Maria and Rio Cuarto in Cordoba Province . 

Corn Area 

Estimating corn area remains challenging. Argentine farmers grow corn for grain and corn for silage often under identical conditions. It was thought that due to the poor expected profitability of corn for grain for export, more of the corn would be harvested for silage. Although this makes sense from an economic point of view, in reality we found no such evidence. Farmers plan the amount of corn for silage based on their dairy or cattle herds. They also contract to have the corn for silage cut at a certain point of the year—typically the first week of February. Contracts for silage operations are made as early as October, although we heard of reports as late as December. Additionally, corn for silage may be fertilized at a different rate than corn for grain as was observed at one farm. Finally, the tonnage of silage increases as the corn yields increase. Therefore during a good corn year—which the Argentines had this year—the amount of land for corn for silage actually decreases. They reached the amount of silage needed using less land, and the remaining fields will be harvested for grain. Anecdotal evidence from interviews with farmers corroborated this viewpoint. Additionally, the pattern of weather this year made it harder to cut for silage. Silage is best when it is cut at the dough stage but before it is too hard. The grainfill was more rapid than expected due to the dryness in January. Then as contractors were scheduled to cut for silage, rains at the end of January and into the first part of February delayed fieldwork. Thus some fields which were going to be cut for silage ended up going into grain. USDA revised the harvested area estimate to 2.7 million hectares from 2.65 million hectares.


Soybeans

USDA forecasts Argentina's 2004/05 soybean production at a record 39.0 million tons, unchanged from last month, but up 18 percent from last season's revised output of 33.0 million.  Harvested area is forecast at a record 14.4 million hectares, up almost 3 percent from last season. Yield is forecast at 2.71 tons per hectare, above average but below trend.

Soybeans were in excellent condition in areas traveled by the FAS team in mid-February. The team traveled through more than 50 percent of the soybean area. Observed fields in central Argentine soybean areas were expected to have near record yields. First-crop soybeans are in podfill stage while second-crop soybeans are flowering. Harvest is expected to start by mid-April. Overall, between 50 to 60 percent of the first-crop soybeans are “made.” Yields are expected to be high for this part of the crop. For the second-crop soybeans, the rainfall in late February and into March will be key to determining yield potential. 

First-crop soybeans have passed the majority of the yield-sensitive stages of podset and podfill. Yield for this part of the soybean crop is expected to be high. Soybeans were in excellent condition throughout the area traveled. The problem areas in Pergamino and Canada de Gomez, mentioned above in the corn description, are unlikely to affect first-crop soybeans. At the point of dryness in mid-January, the long-cycle soybeans were beginning to flower and the short-cycle soybeans were at the beginning of pod-set. The rains at the end of January and into early February ameliorated these temporary problems. Second-crop soybeans, however, may have been affected in the early vegetative stages and yield potential may have reduced. The yield-sensitive podfill stage will need beneficial precipitation to achieve higher than average yields. Currently, precipitation levels are adequate and forecasts for rain are prevalent. Approximately 83 percent of the total planted area is in first-crop soybeans.  Although the majority of Argentine soybeans are in good to excellent condition, the national crop is not without problems. The breakdown is as follows: 


  Table 2: General Conditions by Regions for 2004/05 Argentine Soybeans

The Zona Nucleo region, where the FAS team traveled extensively, had excellent conditions.  Observed fields confirmed these conditions. Yields are predicted to be near record in Junin, in northern Buenos Aires Province ; Marcos Juarez and Villa Maria, in Cordoba Province ; and Casilda and Venardo Tuerto, in Santa Fe Province . There is a problem with inadequate precipitation or poorly timed precipitation in northern Cordoba Province , Entre Rios Province and in Tandil in southern Buenos Aires Province . Lower yields are expected for these areas.   Northern Cordoba Province and Tandil received beneficial precipitation at the end of February and early March. The wildcard remains southwestern Chaco and Santiago del Estero . These areas saw a precipitous decline in the amount of soybeans planted due to dryness and harvest losses last year. Farmers are more careful of the weather trends in this fickle environment. Low yields and high harvest losses are predicted for these areas again.  


Soybean Rust-Not a Factor in 2004/05

A report of soybean rust in Otumpa, Santiago del Estero was reported on Feb. 14, 2005 . It was on volunteer soybean plants in a cotton field. This is one of the first incidences of soybean rust being reported in commercial soybean region. The spread and control of this pest will be important to yield potential throughout Argetnina. The Argentine government and several grower organizations have invested considerable time in the identification and early detection of rust. Soybean rust can be confused with other foliar diseases such as black spot (Septoria spp.) [See figure 6, photo 3.] It is expected, though, that once an effective soybean rust management program is in place, that there will be a slight boost in yields as the lesser foliar diseases are better managed along with the more serious soybean rust. For control of soybean rust there are three approved chemicals: “Amistar” by Syngenta; “Sphere” by Bayer; and “Opera” by BASF. 

Soybean Area and Yield 

Argentine soybean yields have increased over the last several years due to adoption of a technology package. The package consists of no-till, group 4 maturity group soybean varieties, and genetically modified organism gene (GMO) technology. [See figure 7, soybean yield chart.] Soybean harvested area estimates are still being debated among the commercial firms and other estimating groups, with the range between 13.9 and 14.6 million hectares. Planting soybeans was less expensive and more profitable than alternatives; however, profits for soybeans are less than in the previous year. Costs were high--diesel and glycophosphate increased--and returns were lower this year.  Soybean prices have fallen considerably from their peak in March 2004, down 35 percent. Despite the fall in prices, soybeans were more profitable than other crops. Harvested area is estimated at 14.4 million hectares, up 200,000 hectares from last month and up 2.9 percent from last year. 

For more information, contact RobertTetrault
  with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at (202) 690-0130