North Korea Grain Situation - 2005/06
The USDA estimates North Korea total
grain production (including corn,
milled rice, wheat, and barley) at 3.64 million tons, up 150,000 tons or
4 percent from last year and the largest crop since 1994/95.
The total output is comprised chiefly of nearly equal parts corn and rice,
although the proportion of corn has dropped over the past 15 years due to a
decline in area. North Korea
also produces a variety of other grain and tuber crops, including millet,
sorghum, and potatoes, which are not included in USDA statistics but which are
customarily included in total grain estimates by the World Food Program and
other sources.
The
gradual upward trend in grain production that started five years ago represents
a promising recovery from a series of disastrous harvests in the mid 1990’s,
but the country’s grain deficit remains quite large.
The South Korean government and several non-government organizations
(NGO's) are working with North
Korea
to introduce higher-yielding
crop varieties and to improve the country's agricultural management and
technology. Although
North Korea is committed to reducing its dependence on foreign food assistance
and achieving grain self-sufficiency, efforts to further expand grain production
will be hindered a variety of factors: limited arable land, a short growing
season, depleted soil fertility, a dilapidated irrigation network, shortages of agricultural
inputs (farm
equipment, high-quality seeds, fuel, and electricity), and the absence of
market incentives to encourage private investment.
Corn
Corn production
for 2005/06 is estimated at 1.8 million tons, up 4 percent from last year’s
above-average crop. The estimated area of 500,000 hectares is up slightly from last year but down by about 25 percent since
its peak in the early 1990’s. Before
1990, the government greatly expanded corn area in order to maximize total grain
output, but the effort had negative consequences.
Planting corn on steep hillsides led to serious erosion problems, and
continuous cropping caused a drop in soil
fertility. In recent years, the
government has lowered the corn area target and encouraged greater crop
diversity. Corn area has declined in
some marginal areas, while there has been a shift from corn to other crops, such
as potatoes and vegetables, on high value land. The
estimated yield of 3.6 tons per hectare is up 3
percent from last year and the highest since 1990/91.
North Korea
has a suitable climate for corn cultivation and its average
yields are higher than other Asian countries such as the Philippines,
Indonesia, and Burma.
Rice
Milled rice production
for 2005/06 is estimated at 1.6 million tons (2.46 million tons rough
basis), up 60,000 tons or 4 percent from last year and the largest crop since
1999/00. Area
is estimated at 585,000 hectares, unchanged from last year.
Paddy area has remained stable for many years and is unlikely to increase
given the high cost and effort needed to construct new fields and supply
irrigation water. The estimated
yield of 4.2 tons per hectare is up 4 percent from last year and the highest
since 1990/91. North Korea, like South Korea and Japan, has a temperate
climate with cold winters and can only produce one rice crop each year.
Rice yields in North Korea are comparable to yields in
Vietnam and the Philippines but significantly lower than yields in China, Japan,
or South Korea. North Korea rice yields have historically been
45 to 50 percent lower than in South Korea, where rice production benefits
from a milder climate and a much higher level of economic and technological support
for its farmers.
Wheat
and barley
Production of
wheat and barley
(which are combined in USDA statistics) is estimated at a record 240,000 tons, up 20,000
from last year.
Although area was unchanged from last year at 100,000 hectares, favorable
weather led to higher estimated yield. North Korea’s wheat yield of 2.4 tons per hectare is below the world average but similar
to yields in Argentina
and South Africa. Most of North Korea’s wheat and barley is grown as a winter crop on the coastal plains, although
a small amount of spring wheat and barley is grown at higher elevations.
Winter grain area has expanded in recent years after the government, with
the help of international groups, started a program to boost double-cropped
area.
Other
grains
According to the
United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO),
the area under minor grains such as sorghum, buckwheat, and various types of
millet is about 60,000 hectares. Potatoes
have become an increasingly important food source in the North since 2000,
thanks to a potato project supported by the government and various NGO's.
Although the program has had some success, the limited availability of quality
planting seed and problems with disease hamper further area expansion.
The FAO reports that main-season and spring potato production in 2004/05 was
more than 500,000 tons in cereal equivalent (1:4 conversion rate).
Weather Summary
Grain crops in 2005/06 benefited from
generally favorable weather. The
winter wheat and barley crops were planted in fall 2004.
Rainfall in September and late October provided adequate moisture for
winter crop establishment, and temperatures were normal through December.
Snow cover was intermittent during the winter of 2004-05, and there were
concerns that conditions in the south were unfavorably dry.
Snow returned in late February, accompanying a late-winter cold snap
during which temperatures dropped below -10 degrees Celsius. The
cold weather was in sharp contrast to the previous winter, when temperatures were
unseasonably mild throughout the winter and crops emerged from dormancy weeks ahead
of the average date.
Mild temperatures and scattered showers in
March and April were nearly ideal for the emergence and establishment of winter grains and
planting of spring crops (including rice and corn seedlings, wheat and barley, and early
potatoes).
Moderate to heavy showers in late April likely caused minor planting
delays in some areas. Total spring
rainfall was lighter than normal only in the southwest, where a minor soil
moisture deficit developed.
Widespread showers in May provided favorable
soil moisture for transplanted rice and corn.
Temperatures were seasonable and soil moisture,
in the 60- to 80-percent range, was ideal for planting and germination.
SPOT-Veg vegetative indices indicate that crops got to a slow start in April and May but
had average to above-average growth in June and July.
An isolated storm dumped up to 7 inches of rain along the east
coast, but
no flood damage was reported.
Rainfall amounts were generally above normal
nationwide in July and August, and temperatures were also above normal for most
of the period. Locally heavy rain
and minor flooding were reported in some areas at the end of June and the
beginning of August, but crop damage was minor.
Although several typhoons swept through Japan, South Korea, and eastern China
last summer, the North did not suffer a direct hit.
A short period of abnormally cool weather in mid to late August may have
slowed crop development slightly but likely had little impact on rice yields.
Normal temperatures and rainfall in September and October favored
fieldwork and harvest activities.
Links
North and South Korea Graphs
Korea Weather Maps and Graphs
Crop Explorer
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