Ukraine: Dryness Hampers Winter Grain Planting

Persistent dryness throughout Ukraine, beginning in August and extending into October, had a significant negative effect on the planting of 2006/07 winter grains. As of October 18, only 5.3 million hectares of winter crops had been sown compared to 7.2 million by the same date last year, according to Ministry of Agriculture data reported by the Ukrainian commodity analysis group APK-Inform. Grains typically comprise over 95 percent of total winter crops in Ukraine, and wheat accounts for about 85 percent of the winter grains.

Surface moisture depletion, as indicated by surface-wetness anomaly data derived from microwave satellite imagery, was evident by mid-August in eastern Ukraine.  The dryness expanded and intensified over the next seven weeks, and in late September -- when planting was only 50 percent complete and sown area was about 2 million hectares behind the pace of the previous year -- the Ministry of Agriculture reduced the official forecast of winter crop area from 7.7 to 6.5 million hectares.  By October 9, surface moisture was extremely low throughout Ukraine.  Precipitation on October 12 replenished surface moisture in a portion of south-central Ukraine, but the rainfall arrived too late and was too localized to benefit the sowing campaign.  Daily planting data from mid-October indicate that fall planting is approaching completion and suggest that final sown area is almost certain to fall short of the revised target by roughly one million hectares.  The greatest year-to-year reduction in area (as of October 14) has occurred in south-central Ukraine, which includes some of the country's most important winter wheat  territories.  

(In Russia, meanwhile, winter crops had been sown on 12.8 million hectares by October 17 compared to 13.6 million by the same date last year.  Dry conditions were reportedly contributing to planting delays, especially in the key Southern District.  Fall planting in Russia typically is largely complete by November.)  

Current USDA area and production estimates for grains and other agricultural commodities are available at World Agricultural Production Online or at PSD Online.  Initial estimates for 2006/07 will be released in May 2006.