Global Durum Output Lower in 2005/06

World durum output in 2005/06 is estimated at approximately 27 million tons, up 1.0 million tons from July's estimate, but down sharply from last year's record of 33 million tons. Major exporters, Canada, European Union (EU), and the United States combined, account for approximately 60 percent of total durum production. Their total output has decreased by nearly 20 percent this year, mostly due to smaller crops in the European Union. On September 30, the National Agricultural Statistics Service revised the United States durum production estimate upward to 2.7 million tons from their July estimate based on increased area. Yields are down in all States except North Dakota. Continued

 drought reduced output in EU and Morocco. The EU accounted for 28 percent of total world production this year compared to 36 percent last year. EU production is estimated to decrease by 36 percent from 2004/2005 due to prolonged dryness in Spain, Portugal, and Italy, and a reduction in seeded area. At the same time, Canada's durum production, which accounts for 20 percent of global output, is higher than the previous year. Harvesting of durum in Canada is 80 percent complete, although there are some quality concerns due to excess rains during harvesting. Crops in Algeria, and Tunisia, are lower this year mostly due to unfavorable weather. Durum in Argentina is expected to be lower due mostly to lower area as farmers are expected to switch to more profitable crops such as sunflowers and soybeans. Production in Turkey is lower as a result of reduced durum procurement prices which are similar to the milling wheat prices this year. Consequently, because of these procurement policy changes, some farmers switched from durum to the higher-yielding milling wheat this year. In Syria, output is slightly higher due to higher prices. Durum in Syria accounts for nearly 50 percent of their total wheat crop. Durum production in Russia is expected to increase over last year's drought-reduced crop. (For more information, contact Michelle Greenberg at 202-720-7339.)

(Area, Yield and Production Tables) (Durum Crop Calendar) (Regional Maps)

European Union 

In the European Union (EU), durum wheat production is estimated at 7.6 million tons in 2005, down 36 percent from last year's record crop and 15 percent below the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 3.3 million hectares, down 15 percent from last year while yields are estimated at 2.32 tons per hectare, down 25 percent from last year. (See regional map)

Durum traditionally accounts for 8 percent of total EU wheat production. Durum is concentrated in just a few of the EU's 25 member states - with none of the 10 new nations contributing any significant amount. Durum is primarily grown along the Mediterranean Sea. The big players in EU durum production are Italy, Spain, France, and Greece, which typically produce about 48 percent, 22 percent, 18 percent, and 10 percent, respectively of total EU durum output. In addition, Austria and Portugal usually produce one or two percent of the total EU durum harvest. 

Drought has devastated agriculture in the Iberian Peninsula this season, greatly reducing Spain and Portugal's durum crop. Spain's 2005/06 durum wheat crop is estimated at 1.0 million tons, down 65 percent from last year's production level and 49 percent below the 5-year average. Area is estimated at 850,000 hectares, down 7 percent from last year. Durum wheat comprises roughly one-third of Spain's wheat production and is primarily grown in the southern provinces, where drought has been particularly acute. In Portugal where the drought was also severe, the results were dramatic. National durum production in Portugal is estimated at 30,000 tons for 2005, an estimated 82 percent reduction compared to both last year and the five-year average. 

In Italy, the largest EU producer, durum production is estimated at 3.5 million tons, down nearly 40 percent from last year's record crop of 5.7 million tons, due mostly to a decline in area. The drop in area is largely a result of changes in EU agricultural policy that affects Italy. In France, the third largest EU producer, durum production is estimated at 2.0 million tons, down slightly from last year's 2.1 million tons. Greece is expected to produce about 1.0 million tons of durum this season. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)

Canada

Canada's durum production for 2005/06 is forecast at 5.35 million tons, up 8 percent from last year. The harvested durum area for 2005/06 is forecast at 2.23 million hectares, up 4 percent from last year. Canada's durum yield is forecast at 2.20 tons per hectare, which is significantly above the five-year average of 1.83 tons per hectare, but slightly lower than last year's yield. (See regional map) 

Estimated production of durum has increased due to higher area and yields, based on the latest Statistics Canada reports, despite cool temperatures, heavy rains, and occasional frost in the main durum growing regions of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Durum quality may have suffered from this weather. Durum typically comprises 20 percent of the total wheat crop in Canada. Based on the five-year average, approximately 80 percent of Canada's durum is grown in Saskatchewan, 19 percent in Alberta, and 1 percent in Manitoba. (For more information, contact Nicole Wagner at 202-720-0882.) 

Northwest Africa

The 2005/06 crop in Northwest Africa (Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia) is estimated at 3.1 million tons, down 42 percent from last season's record 5.2 million ton crop and below the 5-year average of 3.4 million. Area is estimated at 2.2 million hectares, down 32 percent from last year. Durum wheat typically accounts for about 55 percent of total wheat production. Overall yield is estimated at 1.36 tons per hectare, down 14 percent from 2004/05, but remaining above the five-year average of 1.25 tons per hectare. (See regional map)

Algeria's 2005/06 crop is estimated at 1.0 million tons, down 45 percent from last year's bumper crop and below the five-year average of 1.2 million tons. After a late start to the rainy season, crop conditions turned worse during spring with drought. Durum wheat comprises roughly 70 percent of Algeria's wheat crop. Morocco's harvest is estimated at 940,000 tons of durum wheat in 2005/06, down 54 percent from last year, and 20 percent from its 1.2 million ton average. Durum accounts for roughly one-third of the country's wheat production. Grain production during 2005/06 was dramatically reduced when drought spread over the country's agricultural areas. Rainfall was extremely scarce starting in late December and lasting through harvest. In Tunisia, the 2005/06 durum production is estimated at 1.1 million tons, down 20 percent from last year's large crop, but still 8 percent above the five-year average. Durum accounts for about 80 percent of its wheat crop. Tunisia's 2005/06 crop season saw normal levels of rainfall all season, aiding development of durum and other grain crops. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138)

India

In India, durum production for 2005/06 is estimated at 1.2 million tons, unchanged from the previous season. Similar to last season, the 2005/06 durum wheat season in central and northern India began with excellent soil moisture availability in November 2004, and then received very favorable rains during January 2005 as the crop entered the flowering stage. The durum crop was harvested during April. (See regional map) 

Durum wheat comprises a small portion of the total wheat grown in India. It is grown mainly in the "central zone" which includes the states of Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, parts of Punjab, south Rajasthan, and Maharashtra, according to the Government of India (GOI) Ministry of Agriculture. Durum is grown under rainfed conditions, with the exception of durum grown in Gujarat, which is irrigated. Production varies between 5 and 12 percent of total wheat output. However, in reality it is more often on the lower end of this range. The GOI does not offer a separate estimate of durum through any of its crop forecasting or monitoring programs. It is possible that as contract farming increases in the Indian agricultural sector, durum contract farming will become more commonplace and consequently production may increase in the future and the crop marketed separately. (For more information, contact James Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

Australia

Australia's 2005/06 durum production is forecast at 400,000 tons, unchanged from 2004/05. Below average area and yield are expected again this season because of delays in sowing the crop. (See regional map)
The negative effects of a dry July-August period were only partially offset by an improved September precipitation pattern. Rainfall amounts in Australia's dominant durum area of northern New South Wales were below normal this season, with the region receiving only 40 percent of it normal rainfall amount from July to September. In other minor production areas dry conditions delayed sowing programs, though growing season improved after June rainfall. Harvesting of the 2005/06 crop will begin in early December 2005. (For more information, contact James Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.) 

Argentina

Argentina's durum production for 2005/06 is forecast at 145,000 tons, down 20 percent from last year. The harvested durum area for 2005/06 is forecast at 50,000 hectares, down 12 percent from last year. Forecasted yield is 2.9 tons per hectare, which is slightly above the five-year average but lower than last year. (See regional map)

USDA has decreased its October forecast of total wheat harvested area due to a continued shift from grains to oilseeds over the last five years. Upon completion of wheat plantings in mid-September, Argentina's Ministry of Agriculture confirmed that planted wheat area had decreased significantly from last year, by approximately 20 percent. Given that durum comprises 1 percent of the total wheat crop on average, durum area has been revised downward likewise. Most of the reduction of durum production is in accordance with the decrease in seeding intentions, however, dryness in Tandil, the major durum producing delegation, has caused forecast yields to be slightly revised downward from last month. (For more information, contact Nicole Wagner at 202-720-0882.)

Russia

Russia's durum wheat production is estimated at 1.2 million tons, slightly higher than last year due to higher expected yields in key durum regions. Area is estimated at 1.0 million hectares, unchanged from last year. Roughly 70 percent of Russia's durum wheat is produced in the southern Volga Valley (specifically Orenburg oblast and eastern Saratov oblast), with the remainder grown in Western Siberia (Altai Krai). (See regional map)

Durum production is highly variable from year to year because it is grown largely in zones of risky agriculture, subject to frequent drought. Durum comprises only about 2 percent of total wheat output. Harvest of durum was completed in October. (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)


Kazakhstan

In Kazakhstan, durum production for 2005/06 is estimated at 0.1 million tons, unchanged from the previous year. Durum accounts for approximately 1 percent of wheat output, total wheat production is currently estimated at 11.0 million tons. (See regional map)
Falling demand for durum during the 1990's led to a massive reduction in durum area, from roughly 2.0 million hectares in 1991 to an estimated 0.1 million by 2000. Durum wheat is produced by only a few companies for their own needs, largely for macaroni production, and Kazakhstan farmers are unlikely to increase durum production in the near future. (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)