September 1, 2005

Tanzania: Record Corn Area Increases Production

The USDA August estimate for Tanzania’s 2005/06 corn production is at 3.3 million tons, up 70,000 tons from last year and 550,000 tons greater than the 5-year average of 2.75 million tons.  The 2005/06 marketing year output is forecast at a record level due to a record area of 2.97 million hectares.  The total national corn yield is estimated at 1.1 tons per hectare, which is slightly below the 5-year average of 1.27 tons per hectare.  Harvest was recently completed in most parts of the country but it is still on going in the southern and northeastern highlands where temperatures are cooler and the growing season is longer.  In summary, crop production is expected to be above-average due to record corn area estimates. 

Seasonal rainfall was above average in Tanzania’s southern highland grain basket where above-average yields are expected.  In addition, fertilizer applications also increased in this region due to a fertilizer subsidy program started by the government.  However, yields were below-average in central Tanzania where a dry spell in February adversely affected the crop.  In addition, April rainfall was below average throughout most of the country which reduced yields in northeastern Tanzania where the crop was at critical flowering and tasseling stages. 

Current production forecasts are largely based on field data collected from a recent crop assessment tour in northeastern Tanzania, and estimates released by the Tanzania’s Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MAFS) on May 25^th.  Corn area estimates from MAFS have increased by nearly two-fold over the past three years and correspondingly production estimates have been near record levels.  Some traders speculate MAFS estimates may be high because local prices have not dropped and political elections are scheduled to be held in October.

A joint mission between USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) and USAID's FEWS NET Project conducted a crop tour in Kenya and northeasternTanzania from June 23-July 5, 2005.  In northeastern Tanzania, the crop stage ranged from tasseling to harvest, with most of the crop in the grain-filling stages during this time. Field data collected from this crop tour was used in determining USDA's August crop estimates for Tanzania.  Additional information about the crop tour is described in PECAD's update titled "Kenya and Tanzania 2005 Crop Tour Summary".  

Two WRSI (water requirement satisfaction index) relative-yield models are used to monitor Tanzania's corn crop: one for southern Africa (covering Tanzania's unimodal rainfall region) and another for eastern Africa (covering northeastern Tanzania's bimodal rainfall region).  The majority of the Tanzania's crop production is from the unimodal rainfall regions.  WRSI results for this region (shown below) indicate good crop conditions in the south and drier conditions in central Tanzania.  These results closely agree with government reports and national rainfall data. 

For northeastern Tanzania highlands, errors were detected for the WRSI model for East Africa (March-September) near the Arusha-Moshi region which is probably due to underestimated Rainfall Estimates (RFE) from NOAA.  Further investigations are currently being conducted to rectify the WRSI errors for this bimodal region of northeastern Tanzania.  The Arusha-Moshi region is difficult to model because it is where unimodal and bimodal rainfall patterns transition and RFE data from NOAA are often underestimated in highland regions.  However, crop conditions observed on the ground were similar to SPOT-VEG NDVI anomaly imagery which is shown below or can be viewed in Crop Explorer.

2005 Spatial Products 

SPOT-VEG NDVI Anomaly Image for June 10-20, 2005

Below Average Rainfall in February and April 2005

2005 Corn Production Estimates by Region (from Tanzania Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security-MAFS)

Kenya and Tanzania 2005 Crop Tour Summary (PECAD Update)

Other Related Links from the Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS)

Crop Explorer (Tanzania- Northern Corn Region)

Crop Explorer (Tanzania- Southern Corn Region)

Daily MODIS (250-meter resolution) Satellite Images over Africa

Record Cotton Production in Tanzania (PECAD Update- January 28, 2005)

Historical Corn Production (1987-2005) in Tanzania

Historical Corn Area (187-2005) in Tanzania

PSD On-line for Official USDA Production Estimates

Crop Calendar for Tanzania

Other Spatial Data Related to Tanzania

Agro-Ecological Zones for Tanzania

Unimodal and Bimodal Rainfall Regions in East Africa

Africover Landcover Data

For more information, contact Curt Reynolds
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at Curt.Reynolds@fas.usda.gov or (202) 690-0134.