September 21, 2005

Europe: 
Rain delayed wheat harvesting, lowered crop quality in central Europe;
Corn and sunflower conditions are good, but a dry fall is needed for harvest

Summary
During July and August, wheat harvesting was frequently delayed in central and eastern Europe because of reoccurring bouts of heavy rain. The most problematic area was concentrated in the Balkan countries of Romania, Bulgaria, Serbia & Montenegro, Croatia, Bosnia & Herzegovina.  These countries had twice their normal monthly rainfall amounts during both July and August. 

Precipitation fell on saturated ground, creating standing water and flooding fields. Although total rainfall was less in the European Union (EU) countries of Germany, Hungary, and Austria, these countries also experienced delays that extended harvesting beyond the normal timeframe. 

Conversely, the above-average precipitation has been beneficial for summer crops. It has increased plant biomass and is the catalyst behind the expected, higher-than-average yields. The same countries that have seen winter crop quality suffer from the heavy, late-summer rains, will likely see an increase in quality and size of their summer crops. 

Germany
Harvest delays of two weeks were common, with the wheat harvest lasting unusually late, even into September in some areas of Germany. Not surprisingly, as harvest-time rains intensified, quality is expected to have declined, and more wheat production has become feed wheat.  In addition to harvest problems, yields also were negatively affected by weather issues during summer.  In late June two events coincided to shrink kernel size and reduce yields: damagingly high daily maximum temperatures combined with a mid-summer dry spell. USDA's September production release reflects the revision in Germany's wheat crop with a drop of 2.0 million tons to 23.6 million. The 12.0 million ton German barley crop, which is harvested first in the crop rotation, was largely unscathed by the late summer rain.

France
France, EU's largest wheat producer, is estimated to have harvested 38.0 million tons this season (USDA September estimate), down 800,000 tons from August.  The crop was harvested by the end of August, but similarly to Germany's crop, it had also suffered more than expected from high summer temperatures.  France experienced dryness during most of the growing season, which actually helped enhance wheat quality. This allowed French farmers to collect more baking/milling quality wheat than first expected. 

France is the EU's largest corn producer, but its crop has been reduced by the same dryness.  The drought that has dominated the Iberian Peninsula since last autumn also has adversely affected southern France - the country's primary corn-growing region. Although half of the country's corn crop is irrigated, the combined lack of rainfall and extensive water rationing caused USDA to lower its estimate of the 2005/06 crop by 500,000 tons. USDA's September estimate of France's corn crop is 13.5 million tons, 2.5 million tons below last year's bumper harvest.

Hungary
Hungary had two bumper crops last year: the first being its 5.8 million ton winter wheat crop (the biggest since the regime changes of the early nineties), and the second being its 8.2 million ton, summer corn crop. This year, a large 5.0 million ton wheat crop is expected to be followed by an estimated, 8.5 million ton corn crop, which would be a new record.  The Hungarian government continues to bring new storage facilities on-line this year, but its total storage space will likely remain short of the demand for it.  Possibilities exist for transporting some of Hungary's surplus grain to drought stricken Spain and Portugal. If land-locked Hungary (with the exception of the Danube River ports) is still short of warehouse space after the corn harvest, many farmers are likely to let their crops dry in the field, to be harvested later during winter.

Southeast Europe
The above-average rainfall totals that have saturated the Balkans, also will delay the corn and sunflower harvest. The sunflower harvest will begin in mid-September instead of late August, while corn harvesting will begin in many areas in October instead of September. Both crops are poised to be very large, and are coming on the heels of this season's large wheat harvest and last year's record crops. Storage is not likely to be a problem in the Balkans however, as excess storage space exists in various forms of earlier generation technology. The region, particularly Romania, is scattered with large, inefficient storage bins built for stockpiling grains during the seventies and eighties. These facilities can be called into service when needed, with little preparation.  

During August, crop travel was conducted in Bulgaria by staff from USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS-Sofia).  Reports indicate very good summer crop conditions: corn stalks with large, well developed ears, and sunflower fields with large, well pollinated sunflower heads.  Because of the plant's high moisture content and heavy weight, this season's summer crops are more prone to damage by fungus, lodging, and early frost.  Corn is currently excessively wet and will need more time to dry down (weather permitting), especially with the high fuel costs associated with automated driers. 

Many fields are overrun with weeds, and some of the wheat fields had plants lodged from previous flooding. Many of these fields, some covered in mud from prior floods, were not harvested. In addition, many of the corn and sunflower fields must be quickly harvested and re-sown with winter wheat or barley. A hurried fall planting schedule will be essential for farmers wanting to seed as much area as possible before the optimal planting dates end. An early frost or an early onset of winter could severely effect the outlook of what will be a late-established 2006/07 winter grains crop. Southeast European farmers will certainly be hoping for a mild and dry fall to aid plant emergence and crop vegetation.

Locator maps:

Precipitation during the second half of summer:

Cumulative precipitation by selected weather stations (listed under respective country) 

Soil Moisture:
Percent Soil Moisture Map from September 10

Satellite Vegetation Index:

Vegetation Index graphs derived by MODIS during current and past crop seasons. Data compares selected agricultural administrative districts. All of these districts are large wheat, corn, and sunflower producers.

Additional Information: Previous Europe updates:

Weather data for Europe and other world agricultural regions can be accessed at PECAD's user-friendly Crop Explorer website, located at: http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/

For more information, contact Bryan Purcell
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at (202) 690-0138