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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
Due to a reduction in planting intentions, USDA's September forecast of Argentina’s 2005/06 wheat production has been revised downward to 12.5 million tons from the August estimate of 13.5 million tons. This is a 22-percent decrease from last year's production. The harvested wheat area for 2005/06 is forecast at 5.10 million hectares, down 7 percent from last month, and down 16 percent from last year. Thus, the current yield forecast of 2.45 tons per hectare is unchanged from last month.
Most
of Argentina's wheat crop is produced in southern Buenos Aires, southern Sante
Fe, and Cordoba. In 2004/2005, the southern Buenos Aires delegations of Tres
Arryos, Tandil, Piqué, and Bahía Blanca produced 48 percent of Argentina's total
wheat crop. The northern half of Cordoba which includes the delegations of San
Francisco, Marco Juárez, and Villa María, produced 13 percent of the total wheat crop
last year. Much of the land that was taken out of wheat production this
year was from San Francisco and Tres Arroyos. Farmers in San Francisco
planted approximately 207,000 less hectares to wheat and farmers in Tres Arroyas
planted roughly 166,000 less. Many of these hectares will be planted to oilseeds.
The
profitability of soybeans and sunflowerseed has increased over grains, which
combined with dry weather in crucial wheat growing regions, specifically in
Cordoba, La Pampa, and Buenos Aires provinces, has
shifted some intended wheat hectares to first-crop soybeans and sunflowers, as
reported by the
Bolsa
de Cereales Buenos Aires. While
first-crop soybean area increases will likely be realized during the November
through December planting period, second-crop soybean area will likely be
reduced since the second crop follows wheat in the typical rotation.
Dryness in northern La Pampa,
southwestern Corboba, and southern
As of
The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) values for Buenos Aires province confirm that crop planting was lagging this year as compared with the previous 5 years, as shown by the red line in the graph below. The graph below shows NDVI values from April to August ; this year had the lowest values. While the NDVI values confirm the wheat crop is behind, it does not necessarily mean yields will suffer. The second-lowest NDVI values in the early growing season are for 2004/05, as shown by the gold line in the graph below; however, 2004/05 wheat yields were near record in Buenos Aires province. Furthermore, 2002/03 (the fuschia-colored line) had a low yield while its early season NDVI values were relatively high.
While dryness has worsened wheat quality in southwest Chaco, south-central Cordaba , north-central Sante Fe, and northern La Pampa, where problems of yellow spots, small plants, little tillering, and unevenness have been reported, early sown wheat (beginning of June) in southern Buenos Aires is reported to be in excellent tillering condition. Early seeded wheat, as well as the later plantings (end of July and late August), have benefited from recent rains. As of early September, later seeded wheat was in the germination to early tillering stages. Maintaining the above-average (i.e. 5-year and 10-year average) forecast yield of 2.45 tons per hectare will require continued moisture and a return to normal temperatures following last week’s dry and cold weather in many areas of Argentina’s interior.
