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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
August 12, 2005
The USDA August estimate for 2005/06 Ukraine wheat production is 18.6 million tons against 17.5 million last year. The year-to-year increase is attributed to a 13-percent increase in area. Barley production, meanwhile, is forecast to drop by nearly 25 percent, to 8.5 million tons, due chiefly to hot, dry May weather that reduced yield in key production regions.
Estimated wheat area increased this year by 0.8 million hectares, to 6.7 million, because of higher planted area and lower winterkill. Last fall, farmers planted 6.3 million hectares of winter wheat for 2005/06, compared to 5.5 million for 2004/05. (Winter wheat accounts for almost 95 percent of total wheat area in Ukraine.) According the the State Statistical Committee, winter losses totaled only 2.6 percent, the lowest level in 15 years.
According to Ministry of Agriculture data, Ukraine's
wheat harvest was nearly 85 percent complete as of August 5 with cumulative yield
of 3.0 tons per hectare,
down roughly 7 percent from last year. Output, however, was up
nearly 30 percent due chiefly to a more rapid harvest pace.
Farmers had already gathered 16.9 million tons of wheat (bunker weight, prior
to cleaning and drying) compared to 13.2 million by the same date last
year. In southern and eastern
Ukraine, the main winter
wheat region, harvest was nearly complete by August 5. Yields
were highest in the eastern and central oblasts, and lower in the south.
In Odesa, traditionally one of Ukraine's top wheat-producing oblasts, yield is
reported at 2.6 tons per hectare compared to 3.6 tons per hectare last
year. Meanwhile, yields in Kharkiv and Donetsk, in eastern Ukraine, were
nearly 20 percent higher than last year.
The barley harvest was roughly 70 percent complete by August 5, with yield significantly down from last year in eastern Ukraine, the country's main spring barley zone. Because of weather-related planting delays, spring barley was sown later than the optimum planting period and the crop's root system had failed to fully develop prior to the arrival of hot, dry weather in May. (See updates from May 13 and June 10.) Yield is estimated at about 1.9 tons per hectare, compared to 2.5 tons per hectare last year, and area is estimated at 4.5 million hectares, unchanged from last year.
Corn production is estimated at 5.5 million tons, down sharply from last year when unusually high planted area and abundant precipitation delivered Ukraine's highest corn crop in over 40 years. Estimated area is down 30 percent this year, to a near-average 1.6 million hectares. Sunflowerseed production is estimated at 3.8 million tons, up 25 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 3.4 million hectares, matching last year's level, and yield is forecast to rebound to slightly above average. Weather has been generally favorable for corn and sunflowerseed in eastern and southern Ukraine. Soil-moisture models indicate low subsurface moisture reserves, but levels are similar to 2003 when corn and sunflowerseed yields were about average. Harvest of sunflowerseed typically begins in early- to mid-September and is largely complete by the end of October.
Estimates of global area, yield, and production of grains and other agricultural commodities are updated monthly and available at World Agricultural Production Online.
