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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
August 17, 2005
The USDA August estimate for 2005/06 Russia wheat production is 47.0 million tons, unchanged from last month and up 1.7 million from last year. Area is estimated at 25.5 million hectares, up 1.3 million from last year. Barley output is estimated at 16.5 million tons, unchanged from last month and down 0.7 million from last year. Estimated area is down 0.4 million hectares, to 9.6 million. An increase in the sown area of winter grains (chiefly wheat) is forecast to compensate for a slight reduction in yield, and harvest prospects in the spring wheat region are similar to last year. Total grain production is forecast to remain essentially stable at an estimated 77.9 million tons.
Harvest reports from the Ministry of Agriculture indicate that 44.3 million tons of grain was harvested by August 15 against 40.1 million by the same date last year, with average yield of 2.50 tons per hectare compared to 2.56 tons per hectare last year. The harvest campaign has benefited from generally dry weather in the Southern District and Volga Valley during the past month. Grain harvest is complete on approximately 42 percent of the sown area and is proceeding ahead of last year's pace.
According to data from SovEcon, an independent commodity-analysis group in
Moscow, spring wheat was sown on 15.2 million
hectares, unchanged from last year despite a 1.7-million-hectare drop in total spring
grain area. Unusually cool spring weather contributed to significant
planting delays in the Central and Volga D
istricts;
spring grain area fell by 1.0 million hectares (9 percent) in the Volga
District, traditionally the country's top spring grain region. In the Siberian District, however, sown area
slightly surpassed
last year's level. Satellite-derived vegetative indices indicate good
crop conditions in most areas of the spring wheat region (the Volga, Ural, and Siberian Districts)
with the exception of several areas where
localized dryness likely reduced potential yield (eastern Saratov
in the Volga valley, Orenburg and southern Bashkir in the southern Urals,
and Altai Kray in western Siberia). Based on
conditions to date, overall spring wheat yield is likely to match last year's
level. Final output depends partly on weather during the harvest campaign,
which typically begins in late August. Last year,
farmers harvested an estimated 93 percent of the planted spring wheat area,
against 87 percent in 2003 and an average of 89 percent. The rate of abandonment
can fluctuate significantly from year to year, especially in the Volga and
Siberian Districts.
Estimates of global area, yield, and production of grains and other agricultural commodities are updated monthly and available at World Agricultural Production Online.
