Canada Crop Conditions: Variable across the Prairies

Of most concern in Canadian agriculture this growing season has been the excessive moisture across the Prairies, especially in southern Manitoba, southwestern Alberta, and in scattered areas across Saskatchewan.  Of all the provinces, Manitoba has suffered the most where flooding has contributed to delayed planting and has decreased overall planted acreage.  Disruption in fieldwork, including delayed spraying, and nutrient leaching will likely contribute to lower crop yields in Manitoba. Given spring seeding intentions, it is estimated that 15 percent of crops did not get planted in Manitoba due to weather. Conversely, Alberta and Saskatchewan have benefited from the fair to excessive moisture earlier this season. Because of heavy June rains, southern Alberta soil moisture, which was excessively dry early this spring, became close to average in July. While most of Saskatchewan cropland is currently average to above average in cumulative growing season precipitation, dry and hot conditions in the first week of August have caused crop conditions to slip from their record potential. Now the threat of frost has become the biggest weather concern as the early seeded crops are being harvested, and later seeded crops are becoming ready for harvest. 

Source:Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada

Spring Wheat Production

Delayed planting and forecasted higher abandonment in Manitoba, along with slightly lower seeding intentions across Canada (down 1.4% from last year), has affected the total wheat harvested area forecast.  Currently the USDA forecasts Canada harvested wheat area at 9.65 million hectares, down 2 percent from last year. Canada’s wheat production for 2005/06 is forecast at 24.0 million tons, down 9 percent from last year. While crop conditions in Manitoba are reported to be below-average, they are being more than offset by overall above-average crop reports in Alberta and Saskatchewan where crops have been rated approximately 80-90 percent good to excellent condition by the Canadian provincial agricultural departments.  The current USDA above-average yield forecast of 2.49 tons per hectare accounts for historical wheat production across the Prairies.  In 2004/05 Manitoba produced 15 percent of the wheat crop, while Alberta, Saskatchewan, and eastern Canada produced 30, 47, and 6 percent, respectively.  

Better than average vegetation indices also influenced the current yield forecast. Southern parts of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba generally show better than normal (i.e. 4-year average) conditions. While a few below-normal areas near the southern edge of Saskatchewan and in southeast Manitoba exist, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) image below indicates that yields will likely be above-average for most parts of the Canadian prairies. 

Canola Production

The USDA forecasts 2005/06 harvested area of Canada's canola crop at 5.35 million hectares, up 8 percent from last year. With an above average yield of 1.5 tons per hectare, production is forecast at 8 million tons, up 4 percent from last year. Forecast area has sharply increased mostly due to rising canola prices since January. Farmers seeking better returns have shifted from planting spring wheat and barley to oilseeds (canola and flaxseed). The current 2005/06 forecast yield of 1.5 tons per hectare is above the 5-year average of 1.4 tons per hectare due to mostly favorable weather throughout the prairie provinces, especially in Saskatchewan, which produces approximately 40 percent of Canada’s canola crop. As of August 7, 84 percent of Saskatchewan’s canola crop was rated good to excellent and 89 percent of Saskatchewan oilseeds were at or ahead of normal development, as reported by Saskatchewan Agriculture and Food.  Crop development has been reported favorable in most parts of Alberta as well, despite dry areas spanning north of Calgary to Edmonton.  The canola crop in Manitoba, however, has suffered the most due to severe wetness and storms throughout the growing season, which has delayed planting and field operations, as well as stunted crop development.  Harvest has just begun in the earlier planted canola fields yet cool weather has slowed crop progress for later seeded crops. The next few weeks will be critical in determining yield potential as average daily temperatures are likely to become cooler and the potential for frost damage increases.

Oats Production

Of all the crops affected by severe weather in Manitoba, oats has been the hardest hit since southern Manitoba accounts for nearly 30 percent of Canada's production. Manitoba produces high oat yields throughout the southern oat-growing region of the province, as shown in the map below. 

The USDA estimates Canada’s oat production for 2005/06 at 3.5 million tons, which is down 0.2 million tons from last year’s production. Harvested area for Canada oats is forecast to be 1.4 million hectares, down 0.1 million hectares from 2004/05. While Canada produces more wheat, barley, corn, and canola than oats, Canada is the world's second largest oat producer (the Former Soviet Union remains the world's largest oat producer).  

For more information, contact Nicole Wagner  
of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, FAS, at (202) 720-0882.