Drought in EU, Northwest Africa Cause Global Durum
To Sharply Drop in 2005/06

Summary

World durum output in 2005/06 is estimated at approximately 26 million tons, down sharply from last year's record of around 33 million. Drought in the European Union and Northwest Africa, which account for more than half of global import demand, have been the major contributors to the shrinkage in global output.

Lower plantings in the major EU durum-producing countries - Spain and Italy, combined with devastating drought that hit the durum regions the hardest, resulted in a reduction in the EU production to a 6-year low. At planting time, EU farmers were faced with large durum stocks after last year's record harvest, and also lower durum payments, resulting in sharply lower area. EU yields, which are mostly non-irrigated, are estimated to drop to an 8-year low. In addition, dry weather in Northwest Africa, particularly in Algeria and Morocco, has lowered area and yield to well below last year's bumper crops, and below the 5-year average.

For the Americas, production in Canada, the second largest world producer and major exporter, is expected to be lower than last year's excellent crop. Plantings are reduced due to significantly higher domestic stocks caused by last year's lower exports, according to the latest "Statistics Canada" survey. In the United States, durum production increased by 4 percent over last year's average crop, as planted area recovered from last year's record low levels. U.S. durum prices for the planting months of May and June were down 3 to 4 percent compared to last season. Durum crop conditions are excellent aided by nearly ideal weather across most of the major producing regions. Excessive moisture during May and June in North Dakota, have caused crop development to be slightly behind last year's pace but on par with the 5-year average.

In Mexico, production is expected to remain unchanged for 2005/06. Some Mexican durum is exported, averaging 480,000 tons over the past 5 years. The domestic demand for quality durum is limited because there is a lack of demand for pasta. However, Mexican wheat producers, located mainly in the northwestern region, favor durum due to its higher yield and disease resistance, therefore, creating a small surplus of quality durum for export. In Argentina, the crop is expected to be smaller due to lower yields.

For the Middle East region, the largest regional producer is Turkey. Turkey's crop is expected to decrease slightly from last year's bumper crop, but still resulting in a good crop.

Russian durum production is expected to increase due to better yields. Most of their durum is used locally to satisfy domestic demand. In Kazakhstan, durum output is expected to be similar to last year.

In Asia, durum crops in India and Australia, are expected to be similar to last year. Australia typically exports most of its durum due to the lack of domestic demand. (For more information, contact Michelle Greenberg at 202-720-7339.)

(Area, Yield and Production Tables) (Durum Crop Calendar)

Durum Crop Conditions for 2005/06

In the European Union, durum production is forecast at 7.3 million tons in 2005, down 38 percent from last year's record crop of 11.9 million tons, and 21 percent below the 5-year average. Harvested area is estimated at 3.4 million hectares, down 13 percent from last year, and 8 percent below the 5-year average. Yields are estimated at 2.2 tons per hectare, down 30 percent from last year.

Durum traditionally accounts for 8 percent of total EU wheat production. Durum is concentrated in just a few of the EU's 25 member states - with none of the 10 new nations contributing any appreciable amount. Durum is primarily grown in four countries along the Mediterranean Sea. The big players in EU durum production are Italy, Spain, France, and Greece, which typically produce about 48 percent, 22 percent, 18 percent, and 10 percent, respectively of total EU durum output. In addition, Austria and Portugal usually produce one or two percent of the total EU durum harvest. (See regional map)

Drought has devastated agriculture in the Iberian Peninsula this season, greatly reducing Spain and Portugal's durum crops. Spain's 2005/06 durum wheat crop is estimated at 1.0 million tons, down 65 percent from last year's production level and 54 percent below the 5-year average. Area is estimated at 850,000 hectares, down 7 percent from last year. Durum wheat comprises one-third of Spain's wheat production and is grown primarily in the southern provinces, where drought has been especially severe.

In Portugal, the durum crop has suffered a reduction of almost 60 percent, producing an estimated 70,000 tons of durum wheat for 2005. Portugal's durum crop averages 70 percent of its total wheat output. Portugal has less area to mitigate and disperse the drought's negative effects.

In Italy, the largest EU producer, durum production is estimated at 3.5 million tons, down nearly 40 percent from last year's record crop of 5.7 million tons, due mostly to a decline in area. Durum is concentrated, to the greatest extent, in the southern most regions. The region of Sicila produces the most durum in the nation, accounting for 24 percent of the nations total durum production. The region of Puglia is a close second, accounting for 23 percent of the total durum produced.

In France, the third largest EU producer, durum production is estimated at 1.7 million tons, down 20 percent from 2004. However, this crop still near the 5-year average. France had a dry winter and early spring, however, precipitation improved during May. In addition, Greece, which produces well over half of its wheat crop as durum, is expected to produce another 1.0 million ton crop this season. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)

In Canada, the 2005/06 durum crop is expected to produce 4.8 million tons, down 4 percent from last year's crop. This year, however, harvested area is expected to increase to 2.2 million hectares, up 2 percent from last year. Durum yields for this year are expected to be better than the five-year average but slightly lower than last year's high yield of 2.3 tons per hectare. Maintaining an expected yield of 2.2 tons per hectare will require improved weather from recent below-average temperatures and heavy rains across the Prairies, which subsequently improved very dry areas in southern Alberta. Durum is grown in western Canada with 80 percent of the 5-year average production in Saskatchewan, 19 percent in Alberta, and 1 percent in Manitoba. (See regional map) (For more information, contact Nicole Wagner at 202-720-0882.)

In Turkey, with favorable spring rains throughout most of the country, durum production for 2005/06 is forecast at 2.3 million tons, down 4 percent from the previous year. Harvested area is estimated at 1.1 million hectares, unchanged from last year. Yields are expected to be slightly below last year's bumper crop yielding 2.2 tons per hectare. Maintaining above-average yields for this year will require rains in the dry southern parts of the Central Anatolia Region and the eastern Aegean Region. Durum wheat accounts for roughly 12 percent of Turkey's total wheat area and production. (See regional map) (For more information, contact Nicole Wagner at 202-720-0882.)

In Syria, the 2005/06 durum production is forecast at 2.1 million tons, unchanged from last year. Harvested area is estimated at 830,000 hectares, also unchanged from last year. Maintaining above-average yields in Syria may be possible this season because approximately 40 percent of the Syrian wheat crop is currently irrigated. Long-term soil moisture totals are less than 40 percent in most regions; thus those wheat areas not irrigated are in desperate need of rain. Most of Syria's wheat crop is grown in the northern regions, where durum production accounts for approximately 49 percent of the total wheat production. (See regional map) (For more information, contact Nicole Wagner at 202-720-0882.)

In Northwest Africa (Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia), the 2005/06 crop is estimated at 2.9 million tons, down 45 percent from last season's record 5.2 million ton crop, and well below the 5-year average of 3.5 million. Area is estimated at 2.3 million hectares, down 31 percent from last year. Durum wheat accounts roughly for 55 percent of total wheat production. Overall yield is estimated at 1.4 tons per hectare, down 13 percent from 2004/05 and above the 1.27 average. (See regional map)

Algeria's 2005/06 crop is estimated at 1.0 million tons, down 45 percent from last year's bumper crop and below the average of 1.3 million tons. After a late start to the rainy season, conditions turned worse during spring with drought, including reports of rust. Durum wheat comprises roughly 70 percent of Algeria's wheat crop.

Morocco is estimated to harvest 750,000 tons of durum wheat in 2005/06, down 63 percent from last year, and 37 percent from its 1.2 million ton average. Durum accounts for roughly one-third of the country's wheat production. Grain production during 2005/06 was dramatically reduced when drought spread over the country's agricultural areas. Rainfall was extremely scarce starting in late December and lasting through harvest.

In Tunisia, the 2005/06 durum production is estimated at 1.2 million tons, down 18 percent from last year's large crop, but still 8 percent above the five-year average. Durum accounts for about 80 percent of its wheat crop. The 2005/06 season has had normal amounts of rainfall since planting, aiding durum and all grain crops. (For more information, contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)

Australia's 2005/06 durum production is forecast at 400,000 tons, unchanged from. Below average area and yield are expected again this season because of continued drought in parts of Australia and the relatively later sowing this season. Rainfall amounts in Australia's dominant durum area of northern New South Wales were below normal this season during the optimal sowing window. In other production areas extreme dry conditions have continued, seriously delaying sowing programs. Better yield assessment will come to light later in the season (September). A dry September tends to sap yield potential. Harvesting of the 2005/06 crop will begin in early December 2005. There is limited public information on durum production in Australia, as a result of limited monitoring and agricultural census budget cuts. In previous years, Australia has exported wheat to Italy and North Africa. (See regional map) (For more information, contact James Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

In India, durum production for 2005/06 is estimated at 1.2 million tons, unchanged from the previous season. Similar to last season, the 2005/06 durum wheat season in central and northern India began with excellent soil moisture availability in November 2004, and then received very favorable rains during January 2005 as the crop entered the flowering stage. The durum crop was harvested during April.

Durum wheat comprises a small portion of the total wheat grown in India. It is grown mainly in the "central zone" which includes the states of Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, parts of Punjab, south Rajasthan, and Maharashtra, according to the Government of India (GOI) Ministry of Agriculture. Durum is grown under rainfed conditions, with the exception of durum grown in Gujarat, which is irrigated. Production varies between 5 and 12 percent of total wheat output. However, in reality it is more often on the lower end of this range. The GOI does not offer a separate estimate of durum through any of its crop forecasting or monitoring programs. It is possible that as contract farming increases in the Indian agricultural sector, durum contract farming will become more commonplace and consequently production may increase in the future and the crop marketed separately. (See regional map) (For more information, contact James Crutchfield at 202-690-0135.)

For Argentina, USDA estimates 2005/06 durum production at 160,000 tons, down 11 percent from last year's revised production of 180,000. Area is estimated at 54,000 hectares, down 5 percent from 2004/05. Durum planted area is expected to decrease as Argentine farmers plant other crops, principally sunflower and soybean. Yields are expected to be down 6 percent due to unfavorable weather. Argentine durum is grown in southern Buenos Aires Province and is concentrated in Tres Arroyos delegation. (See regional map) (For more information, contact Robert Tetrault at 202-690-0130.)

Russia's durum wheat production is forecast to increase due to a forecast rebound in yield following last year's drought in the key durum region. Production for 2005/06 is estimated at 1.2 million tons, against 1.0 million last year, from estimated area of 1.0 million hectares. Roughly 70 percent of Russia's durum wheat is produced in the southern Volga Valley (specifically Orenburg oblast and eastern Saratov oblast), with the remainder grown in Western Siberia (Altai Krai). Durum production is highly variable from year to year because it is grown largely in zones of risky agriculture, subject to frequent drought. Durum is not considered to be a priority crop in Russia and comprises only about 2 percent of total wheat output. (See regional map) (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)

In Kazakhstan, falling demand for durum during the 1990's led to a massive reduction in durum area, from roughly 2.0 million hectares in 1991 to an estimated 0.1 million by 2000. Production for 2005/06 is forecast at 0.1 million tons, compared to estimated total wheat output of 11.5 million. Durum wheat is produced by only a few companies for their own needs, largely for macaroni production, and Kazakhstan farmers are unlikely to increase durum production in the near future. (See regional map) (For more information, contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143.)

For more information, contact Michelle Greenberg with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-7339.