Rice: Shake-up in Medium Grain Market Share

Australia’s rice crop – virtually all medium grain – is now estimated to be the smallest in over 30 years as severe drought and limited irrigation continue to plague production and limit exportable supplies. Meanwhile, global medium grain trade is up slightly year-to-year. Although the vast majority of the trade is a direct result of World Trade Organization (WTO) import commitments (i.e., Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan) there is a small, yet significant, increase in import demand in some Middle East markets, such as Libya and Jordan. Consequently, while Australia is expected to try to maintain market share in the large WTO markets, its competitors – China, Egypt, and the United States – are picking up additional business in the smaller growth markets. In 2005, Egypt’s exports are estimated to increase approximately 18 percent from 2004 and 50 percent from just a few years ago (2002) with more sales to the Middle East. The United States has also benefited from Australia’s loss with larger exports to a handful of relatively small markets in the Middle East.

* Medium grain trade is defined as medium grain exports to significant medium grain markets (i.e., Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Libya, Syria, Jordan, and Turkey.)