June 18, 2001

UKRAINE: SUBSTANTIAL REBOUND FOR 2001/02 GRAIN YIELD

Analysts from the USDA Foreign Agricultural Service traveled in Ukraine during the last week of May in order to assess harvest prospects. The team conducted farm visits and met with agricultural officials and independent observers. Field travel in southern Ukraine verified analysis of satellite imagery indicating higher sown area and greatly improved winter crop conditions for 2001/02 compared to the previous season. (See trip report. and current grain-production estimates.)

Based on information gathered during crop-assessment travel and other sources, the USDA boosted its estimates of total 2001/02 Ukraine grain production to 32.3 million tons, up from 28.8 million last month and 24.8 million last year. Wheat production is forecast at 19.0 million tons, up from 16.0 million last month and 10.2 million last year. Barley production is forecast to fall slightly, from 6.9 million tons last to 6.5 million in 2001/02, due to a drop in area. Yield, however, is forecast to increase from last year. Corn output is forecast at 2.8 million tons, against last year's reported bumper crop of 3.8 million.

The sharp projected increase in wheat production will be the result of several factors: a 35-percent jump in winter wheat area, driven by high wheat prices last fall and low winterkill; favorable weather throughout the growing season; a modest increase in the amount of fertilizer and herbicide application; and increased efficiency in farming operations resulting from last year’s restructuring of former State and collective farms.

Although the generous spring precipitation will boost yield potential, most observers suggest that it will have an adverse effect on wheat quality, and forecast that the percentage of milling-grade wheat will decrease this year. According to one Kiev analyst, an 8-million-ton increase in total wheat output may translate to only a one-million-ton increase in milling wheat output.

For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0888.