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November 7, 2001
The planting season for China's 2002/03 winter wheat crop began in mid-September and concluded by the end of October. Mostly dry and warmer-than-normal autumn weather allowed planting to take place without delay but caused soil moisture levels to drop significantly. Recent showers provided limited drought relief, but moisture conditions in the most important wheat-growing provinces remained unfavorably dry for germination. Additional rainfall or supplemental irrigation will be required to ensure normal growth and development before the crop enters dormancy in early December. Winter wheat area may decrease slightly in 2002/03, and spring wheat area is expected to continue its downward trend. Assuming a return to normal yields in 2002/03, total wheat production could equal or exceed the 2001/02 estimated crop of 94.0 million tons.
Surface soil moisture map - October 31, 2001. Moisture conditions are fair to good for planting/germination in the southern and western part of the North China Plain and the Yangtze River valley, but Shandong, Hebei and Jiangsu provinces remain unfavorably dry.
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Sub-surface soil moisture map - October 31, 2001. Soil moisture reserves are adequate in Anhui, Jiangsu, and the lower Yellow River Valley despite drier than normal weather since mid-summer. Moisture reserves in Hebei and Shanxi are especially low.
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Rainfall Graphs for Selected Provinces
Almost 70 percent of China's winter wheat is grown in five provinces on the North China Plain: Henan, Shandong, Hebei, Jiangsu and Anhui. [Area Chart]. Henan and Shandong, the two largest wheat-producing provinces, have both suffered from serious drought this year. Since August, cumulative rainfall has been less than 50 percent of normal in Henan, the worst-affected province. In Hebei, showers in October boosted soil moisture temporarily, but conditions remain drier than last year. Anhui and Jiangsu provinces have also been drier than normal since August, in sharp contrast to the situation in 1999 and 2000, when excessive rainfall caused local flooding and planting delays.
Planted Area May Decrease Slightly for 2002/03
Wheat area and production in China has been trending downward since 1997/98, when the country produced a record 123.3 million tons from 30.1 million hectares. In 2001/02, total wheat area dropped to a record-low 25.2 million hectares in response to low profits and government policies designed to discourage the production of low-quality wheat in marginal areas. Production in 2001/02 is estimated at 94.0 million tons, down 6 percent from last year and down 24 percent from four years ago.
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Winter wheat accounts for about 90 percent of total wheat area and 90 to 95 percent of China's total wheat production. In 2001/02, winter wheat area dropped to an estimated 22.8 million hectares, with the largest reductions occurring in central China where yields are lower than the national average and other crops (such as winter rapeseed) have been more profitable. China's Ministry of Agriculture recently called on farmers to stabilize winter wheat production and avoid further area reductions for the 2002/03 season, but it is uncertain how farmers will respond. The U.S. agricultural attaché in Beijing reported that farmers seem to be planting about the same amount as last year despite the dry conditions, but China's National Grain and Oil Information Center is forecasting an area reduction of 1 to 2 percent. Although wheat prices are currently stable and higher than last year, the demand for wheat is soft: food consumption is flat, if not declining, and old stocks are being used as feed grain. Winter rapeseed and barley are attractive alternative crops, and the current dry conditions may discourage planting where irrigation supplies are short or unavailable. Planting is now complete, but final statistics on winter wheat area will not be available for several months.
Spring wheat area dropped to an estimated 2.4 million hectares in 2001/02 and is likely to drop again in 2002/03. It is grown primarily in the Northeast and western China, where farmers can make more money growing other crops such as soybeans, rice and corn. Farmer enthusiasm for spring wheat is weak, the quality of the crop is poor, and demand is low.
For more information, contact Paulette Sandene with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0133.
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