November 2, 2001

Winter Grain Planting Conditions in Afghanistan:
Continued dryness compounds food shortage

Current Conditions Summary:
Afghanistan enters the winter wheat season with very dry conditions and low irrigation reserves.

Poor Start to Season in Afghanistan
Afghanistan has experienced three consecutive years of drought which have severely impacted field crop production and pasture land capacity. The winter grain crop is typically planted during October and November, depending upon region and, most importantly, soil moisture.  Current analysis of Afghanistan's irrigated crop areas indicates very low irrigation reserves and low soil moisture. In the rainfed agricultural area, soil moisture is very low from the lack of recent rain. Cumulative precipitation for Afghanistan's field crop regions, for the time period of September 1 through November 1, show the agricultural zone at only 57 percent of long-term normal. During 2000 for the same time period this area received 43 percent of normal. Rainfall during the September through October period is extremely important to provide the proper planting conditions, germination, and support emergence for both the irrigated and rainfed crops.

Wheat typically comprises 80 percent of total grain production. Wheat is grown during the winter season and is harvested during from April to May. USDA refers to the South Asia winter wheat crops planted during October-November 2001 as the 2002/03 wheat crop. Average daily temperatures for the agricultural region during the same time period are similar to last season which were also above normal. Last season above-normal temperatures in the higher elevations of Afghanistan were associated with the reduced snow accumulation and earlier melting of the snow pack creating ill-timed runoff and reduced irrigation supplies. Irrigation availability during the critical grain-fill irrigations in the months of March and April is essential for good production. For the last two growing seasons yields have decreased sharply, a result of the compounding effect of drought, reduced inputs, labor shortages, and irrigation infrastructure deterioration. Though only relatively small amounts of precipitation are required for germination and emergence, Afghanistan has seen very limited precipitation. The prospect for the upcoming winter grain season in Afghanistan appear bleak, as many growing areas remain dry resulting in delayed planting. Planted area will be further decreased by this year's reduced availability of seed, fertilizer, and fuel. For the 2001/02 (USDA 2002/03) season we anticipate continued decline in irrigated and rainfed planted area, and a decline in yield.

For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield  
with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, Center for Remote Sensing Analysis at (202) 690-0135.

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