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September 4, 2001
An average-sized winter grain crop was said to have been cut. During the 2001/02 season, rainfall was significantly better than last year’s drought-plagued season. However, heavy rains (many locals reported 200 percent of normal for June) at harvest diminished winter wheat quality, and created lodging problems. While June rains reduced the quality of winter grains, these same rains likely will result in a bumper corn crop.
Itinerary
A team from the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division (PECAD) of USDA traveled into the highly agricultural region of Vojvodina, Serbia during the third week of August. PECAD was accompanied by a local representative from FAS-Belgrade. The team conducted meetings with farmers, producers, combinat (formerly state-owned farms) managers, academics, government officials, traders, breeders and seed company representatives to assess the state of agriculture after years of economic sanctions. In addition, field visits were conducted to further assess and confirm the situation of the region’s agriculture.
Regional History
In Serbia, the land north of the Danube River is known as Vojvodina. This is the heart of former Yugoslavia’s agricultural land. The area’s fertile, black soil is usually receives moderate rainfall, giving it extensive historical agricultural importance. The region enjoys some of the best yields in Eastern Europe, despite minimal inputs applied to the land, During the communist era, northern Serbia had the best yields of Eastern Europe. If political conditions continue to stabilize, Serbia could once again regain this yield potential. One of the strongest positives for Serbian agriculture is the long-standing tradition (long-term for former Eastern Block standards) of private ownership of farms, since 1953. This has certainly aided the industry in the transfer to a market economy. However, after years of sanctions, Serbia will have to struggle to regain the international market share for it’s exports that it lost during the last ten years.
Factors Limiting Agriculture
Inputs. According to a local expert, precipitation is the most important factor for the success of the corn crop. Second in importance is the level of technology (equipment and inputs). The weather has been near ideal for Vojvodina this season, with significant rainfall during the summer months. The humus-rich soil of Vojvodina is amazingly resilient. Several farmers stated that their land could produce a very good crop on soil that had just the most minimal quantities of inputs. This was observed to be true not only for their fields, but for all the fields in Vojvodina. A very good corn crop will be harvested this autumn. While the sophistication of equipment was considerably more advanced (with some small farmers having new tractors) than that in Romania and Bulgaria, years of sanctions have slowed progress in agriculture.
Credits. Lack of access to capital also limits Serbian agriculture. Lack of loans (except for those with with exorbitant interest rates) has forced farmers to curtail use of fertilizers, pesticides, and herbicides, thus capping yields. In many cases, farmers and coops must resort to bartering their crops for fuel, seeds, and equipment. According to local sources, the lack of inputs results in planting decisions that are highly dependent on weather at and before planting, allowing little crop choice maneuverability.
Production Review
The following estimates come from local sources and may not coincide with official USDA estimates. Team members observed that domestic oilseed production does not fully meet internal needs. Serbia typically produces only half the soybeans consumed. Planted soy area declined from last year, due to poor soy yields and production during the 2000/01 drought. Even so, yields rose this year as better weather pattern prevailed. The 2001/02 area is estimated at 110,000 hectares and production is at 240,000 tons (120,000 last year). Sunflowerseed production is also below domestic needs. Sunflower production is estimated at 170,000 hectares (146,000 hectares) and 280,000 tons (216,000 tons) this year. In addition to grains and oilseeds, Serbia produces potatoes, tomatoes, beans, cabbage, sugar beet, raspberries, blackberries, apples, pears, apricots, plums, and grapes (table varieties and for wine).
Wheat production was estimated at 700,000 hectares and 2.3 million tons, a significant increase over last year’s low output of 1.8 million tons, but this year’s wheat crop came in with considerable quality problems. Barley production is estimated to have been 120,000 hectares (111,000 hectares) and 300,000 tons (252,000 tons), a good crop with better quality than wheat, since it was harvested before the excessive June humidity and precipitation. Corn production is estimated at 1.3 million hectares and 6.2 million tons. Storage and logistics facilities will be taxed to their limits (lack of barges, too few rail cars, destroyed bridges, and political issues with the Montenegro port of Bar), and will hinder the export potential for this season’s expected bumper corn harvest.
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