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August 3, 2001
Widespread rain and cooler temperatures have broken a severe spring drought which damaged winter crops and threatened summer crops on the Korean Peninsula. Yield prospects have stabilized, but irreparable damage has already occurred, especially in North Korea. Recent heavy rain, especially near the North/South Korea border, is expected to cause flooding and possible crop losses.
[Korean Peninsula Political Map]
Weather and Imagery Analysis
North and South Korea experienced one of the hottest and driest spring seasons (March 21 to June 21) on record this year. Press reports, government announcements, and observations from United Nations (UN) and non-governmental sources said the drought sharply reduced winter crop yields and delayed the planting and germination of summer crops such as corn, rice, and vegetables, by several weeks. Some fields had to be replanted more than once. Crop emergence was poor in many areas. Reservoirs had already been depleted by below-normal rainfall last year. Short supplies of irrigation water increased the effect of the drought.
The situation began to improve after mid-June with the arrival of widespread rainfall and more seasonable temperatures. Within two weeks, most areas of North and South Korea had received enough rain to erase the seasonal rainfall deficit. Moderate rainfall continued with few interruptions through July, stabilizing yield prospects for rice and corn. However, there are now reports of flash flooding in parts of North and South Korea. From July 25 through August 1, more than 20 inches of rain were recorded near the North/South Korea border. Up to 12 inches have fallen in several locations in North Korea. There is a strong chance of additional heavy rainfall in August, with the typhoon season just getting under way, and a growing likelihood of flood damage. The danger is especially high in the North, where widespread deforestation has left many hillsides bare of protective vegetation.
Rainfall Map - July 25 to August 1, 2001
Rainfall and Temperature Graphs
The following SPOT images illustrate crop conditions in North Korea in June, at the height of the drought, and early July, after the start of the rainy season.
Image 1 - June 4, 2001 compared to July 6, 2001. This image shows North/South Huanghae, near Nampo. The Taedong River is at top of image. Summer crop planting was delayed in 2001 and emergence was poor. Non-paddy soils appear very dry (gray/white) and water levels are low. The July image shows the same area following heavy rain in late-June. The rice crop appears to be in good condition and non-irrigated crops have emerged well (indicated by the bright red tones), although there are some fields with patchy growth. The light blue color in the river indicates heavy silt from runoff.
Image 2 - June 4, 2001 compared to July 6, 2001. This image shows area near Nampo, with the same comments as for Image 1.
Image 3 - June 4, 2001. This image shows the Northwest coast of North Korea, North/South Pyongan, near Kusong.. This image shows drought conditions in early June, 2001. Rice and corn planting is normally complete by this date, but the drought caused lengthy planting delays and germination problems. Soils appear very dry, and the sharp contrast between cropland and natural vegetation indicates poor emergence.
Image 4 - July 6, 2001. Northwest North Korea, Chongchon River, North Pyongan, near Anju. The image shows crops responding to heavy rain in late-June. Rice appears to be growing well; corn and other summer crops are at the vegetative stage. Warm temperatures encouraged rapid growth.
Image 5 - June 27, 2000. Northwest North Korea, Chongchon River, North Pyongan, near Anju. In 2000, very favorable planting weather in April and May was followed by unusually hot and dry weather in June and July. Crops withered, water levels dropped in streams and reservoirs, and crop stress was very high. Subsequent rain in August came too late to reverse the damage.
Image 6 - July 6, 2001 compared to June 27, 2000. Vegetation appears healthier in 2001 than in 2000, and water levels are higher. Although drought was a problem in both years, the 2001 drought reached its peak in mid-June and had its greatest impact on winter crop maturing/harvesting and summer crop planting/germination, whereas the 2000 drought came later in the season and stressed crops as they reached reproduction.
(For more satellite imagery of North Korea, visit the Korea Imagery Page)
Crop Effects
The Agricultural Counselor in Seoul reported that the spring drought caused minor planting problems for the 2001/02 rice crop in South Korea, but the effect on yield was not expected to be serious. Irrigation supplies were mostly adequate, and growing conditions in July were generally favorable. South Korea rice production for 2001/02 is currently estimated at 5.3 million tons, unchanged from last year. The drought probably had a greater impact on non-irrigated crops such as vegetables, oilseeds, and coarse grains, but the full extent won't be known until later in the growing season.
In North Korea, the impact of the spring drought was more serious than in the South. The estimated production of winter wheat, spring wheat, and spring potatoes was significantly lower than normal. North Korea's 2001/02 corn crop is estimated at 1.3 million tons, down slightly from last year's poor crop, due to reduced area and below-normal yield. The 2001/02 rice crop is estimated at 1.3 million tons (milled basis), unchanged from last year and one of the lowest crops on record. Although estimated yield is close to the 5-year average, estimated area was very low due to planting difficulties. Warm and wet weather during July favored summer crop development in North Korea, but yield potentials could drop if widespread flooding occurs. There is also concern that late-planted summer crops may not have time to reach full maturity before the end of the growing season. Corn is normally harvested in mid-September, while rice is harvested in October.
Previous Report North Korea - May 2001
For more information, contact Paulette Sandene with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0133.
