India Cotton Conditions Improving 

August 14, 2001

Summary:  

India's cotton production for 2001/02 is estimated at 12.5 million bales, up from 10.9 million last year.  The 2001 monsoon season has brought timely and well-distributed rain to most cotton growing regions. Late-May and June rainfall provided good seeding conditions, which fostered a 6 percent jump in area to 8.66 million hectares this season.  

Area increased in the mostly rainfed central states of Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. Pest pressure is reported to be light in all regions. In the northern zone, cotton's relatively higher profits resulted in a shift towards cotton in Punjab and Haryana. The timely onset of monsoon rains in the second week of June augmented the low irrigation supplies in Rajasthan.  Some areas in the rainfed southern zone received below normal rainfall which delayed sowing operations.  The small crop in Tamil Nadu is progressing well with adequate moisture.

Production is distributed among three zones: northern, central, and southern. The northern zone, which includes Punjab, Haryana, and northern Rajastha, typically produces 35 percent of total India output.  The central zone--Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharastra-- produces 40 percent.   The southern zone, Karnataka, Andrah Prasdesh, and Tamil Nadu, accounts for  25 percent.   

The effect of the dryness can be seen in an examination of satellite data over the region measuring healthy vegetation reflectance.  Satellite information indicates improvements this season for both the northern and central cotton zones, while the southern zone appears less vegetated at this date. The vegetation index for the northern and central zone shows more vigorous conditions for 2001, while southern zone is less vigorous as of late July.  However, August rains in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka often encourage late season planting.

(Go to Data and Graphics supporting this crop condition assessment)

The southwest monsoon provides 80 percent of India’s annual precipitation and is critical to the production of cotton.  Precipitation for the first half of the monsoon is below last year’s level. The timing and distribution, however, have been better for agricultural production, particularly in the central-western states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Madhya Pradesh which experienced drought conditions during the previous two years.  This improvement in rainfall has significantly improved  prospects for cotton from this central zone. Consistent rains will be needed during the second half of the monsoon, however, if a good crop is to be harvested.  Even with recent rainfall, the major producing belt in the southern zone has experience dryness for most of the season.  The normal withdrawal date of the south-west monsoon is late September for most regions.

Monsoon Performance for First Half of the Normal Rainy Season with Dot-density Cotton Production Display

Data Sources for this Report:
FAS- PECAD analysis and mapping of meteorological data
FAS  PECAD analysis and mapping of remote sensing data and GIS products
World Meteorological Organization – Weather Station Observations
Data and reporting provided by India Meteorological Department and USDA-FAS Agricultural Counselor's office in New Delhi, India. FAS-PECAD uses GIS technology to convert tabular IMD rainfall data into map images.
Vegetation Index Information from PECAD processing of AVHRR NOAA data.

For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, Center for Remote Sensing Analysis at (202) 690-0135.