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August 31, 2001
Russia's 2001/02 grain harvest continues to outpace recent years. According to Ministry of Agriculture data, nearly 55 million tons of grain (bunker weight, before cleaning and drying) had been threshed by August 28, compared to about 40 million tons by the same date last year. Harvest is roughly 50 percent complete. The substantial year-to-year increase is the result of an 18-percent increase in the area harvested to date, and an 18-percent jump in yield. The Ministry of Agriculture boosted its forecast of 2001/02 total grain production to 74-75 million tons, compared to 65.5 million last year.
Output was especially high in the southern district, Russia's prime winter wheat region, and grain quality is up from last year. According to data from the State Grain Inspectorate reported by SovEcon, an independent Moscow-based commodity analysis group, 66 percent of the wheat harvested by August 17 was rated as food-quality, against 53 percent last year. The increased quality of Russia's winter grain crop resulted from the same hot, dry July weather that reduced yield potential of spring grains in the Volga Valley.
Conditions have been generally favorable in western Siberia, but recent wet weather has not been particularly beneficial for grains: the crop had already benefited from adequate precipitation, and the additional rain likely impeded grain maturation and could delay progress of the harvest campaign. Yield potential is high, but final output will hinge, as usual, on harvest weather.
View current USDA estimates of Russian grain production.
For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0143.
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