August 14, 2001

China's Corn Production Forecast to Decline in 2001/02

China’s 2001/02 corn production is currently estimated at 105.0 million tons, down 1 percent from last year’s poor crop.  Estimated area is 23.5 million hectares, up 0.4 million from last year. Corn area reportedly increased in the Northeast, where some farmers shifted from soybeans, rice, and wheat into corn, but it remained steady on the North China Plain. The estimated yield of 4.47 tons per hectare is lower than the 5-year average and last year, but higher than the drought-reduced crop of 1997/98. 

Irregular rainfall and above-normal temperatures have had a negative effect on China's 2001/02 corn crop.  Planting conditions in April and May for the spring-sown crop in the Northeast were generally unfavorable:  low soil moisture and sparse rainfall led to planting delays of up to 3 weeks and poor germination.  Many fields had to be replanted, and some corn area was shifted to soybeans or other grains with shorter growing seasons.  Hot and dry weather in June also caused planting problems for the summer corn crop on the North China Plain, where corn is sown after the winter wheat harvest.

China Rainfall, April 1 - June 30, 2001      

Temperature Anomaly, April 1 - Jun3 30, 2001

Widespread heavy rainfall in July improved crop prospects over most of northern and eastern China, but dryness remained a problem in the Yangtze Valley, parts of the southern plains, and western Manchuria in early August.  The corn crop is now in the filling stage. Because of late planting and development delays, there is concern that some corn may not reach maturity before the first frost, which can arrive before October 1 in the Northeast.

For more information, contact Paulette Sandene with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0133.