May 15, 2001

UKRAINE POISED FOR REBOUND IN GRAIN PRODUCTION

A 35-percent jump in wheat area and a likely increase in yield will significantly boost Ukraine grain production for 2001/02. Wheat production is forecast at 16.0 million tons, up from 10.2 million last year. Projected wheat area is the highest in ten years -- 7.0 million hectares -- because of higher sown area and relatively low winterkill. Barley production is projected at 6.0 million tons, down from 0.9 million from last year due chiefly to a drop in sown area from 3.7 to an forecast 3.2 million hectares. Barley area is linked to some degree to wheat area: in years of high winterkill, spring barley is typically used to re-seed fields that suffered extensive damage to winter wheat. Corn production is projected at 2.8 million tons, down from 3.8 million last year, with forecast area down 0.3 million hectares to 1.0 million.

According to the U.S. Agricultural Attache in Kiev, wheat yield is forecast to increase from last year following a nearly uninterrupted eight-year decline. The upturn is attributed to generally favorable weather and a slight increase in fertilizer and pesticide use. Fertilizer supplies remain tight, however, with domestic producers preferring to export their products rather than sell to farmers already in debt whose ability to pay is questionable.

Spring grain planting in Ukraine was completed relatively quickly and current crop conditions are good, with nearly every production region enjoying adequate soil moisture. Only in southern Odessa oblast and neighboring Moldova are soil moisture levels low enough to threaten yield potential (see previous assessment).

For more information, contact Mark Lindeman with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 720-0888.

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