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April 25, 2001
Northwest Africa: Drought Remains Entrenched
Late winter/spring drought drops wheat and barley prospects further.
Familiar tune: Good start negated by dry winter & spring
Another winter grain season off to a good start has collapsed as a damagingly dry winter, the second straight for Algeria and Tunisia, and the third straight year of drought for Morocco, has taken a toll on cereal crops from Morocco eastward to Tunisia. The 2001/02 season started with high expectations as timely, abundant rains arrived early in Morocco's northern agricultural regions. Although slow to arrive, by mid-January rains finally did come to Algeria, Tunisia, and southern Morocco, quashing dryness concerns. Since then, however, the season's weather has followed a similar pattern to last year, when rainfall virtually ceased in mid-January and resulted in dismal production totals.
Drought is concentrated in southern Morocco, but felt in all of northwest Africa
Autumn rains arrived late in southern and central Morocco, delaying fall planting. When the fall rains finally did occur in late December, producers could plant, but only through January. The late start to planting pushed crop development into the typically drier months of March, April, and May.
Rainfall in southern and central Morocco ceased by mid-January and virtually no rain has fallen since. Soil moisture is practically non-existent at the time when plants are in their critical reproductive stage. Because of the ongoing drought, significantly diminished output can be expected for both wheat and barley. Post reports confirm that southern Morocco cereal crops are less developed than those in northern Morocco. Barley is expected to suffer most, as it is concentrated along the more marginal southern reaches throughout north Africa. The grain's hardiness typically allows it to grow in the more rocky, water deprived soils where wheat can't. However, when drought bears down on northwest Africa, it is usually these marginal, southern regions that experience the brunt of the drought.
For the month of March, only the extreme tip of northern Morocco received more than fifty percent of normal precipitation. Coastal Morocco, northern Morocco, and Coastal Tunisia received between 25 and 50 percent of normal for the month. All other areas, noticeably Algeria and Southern Morocco, received less than 25 percent of their normal March precipitation. In all three countries, March temperatures were between 1 and 5 degrees Celsius above normal, increasing evaporative losses and crop stress.
Recently: light showers in east, no relief in west
In the last thirty days, Tunisia and eastern Algeria have had the best weather. Northern Morocco has seen considerable dryness in the last seven weeks with only minor relief in the form of light showers since early March. However, northern Morocco has seen the most precipitation this season, and has received it at critical times. Additionally, northern Morocco has some of the most productive wheat land in northwest Africa, and can be expected to have the highest yields when harvest begins next month. The Moroccan crops are now in the grain filling stage.
The other possible bright spot is a small pocket of moisture along the Algerian-Tunisian border which has developed toward the end of the growing season. This "oasis" is very similar to a rain occurrence that took place in the same location last year, but fell apart towards the end of the season. This anomaly may have developed in time to assist crops in Tunisia and eastern Algeria as they finish reproduction.
Background Information for Northwest Africa's Cereal Crops
Production Tables for Northwest Africa (Last Five Seasons)
* USDA's 2001/02 Production forecast numbers will be released May 10, 2001
Cumulative Precipitation Graphs (last six years & normals)
These graphs confirm that abundant and timely rainfall (recorded in mm) corresponds to a productive crop year in northwest Africa. (compare cumulative precipitation graphs to production tables from above)
Morocco:
Algeria:
Tunisia:
Satellite imagery:
Satellite composite showing vegetation growth
These two images are from the same time period, (1st half of April) and taken one year apart. The red coloring shown is the spectral signature of vegetation picked up by the satellite's infrared sensor. Vegetation in this region is primarily cereals, almost solely wheat and barley. It appears that there is more "red" in the latest image when compared to last season's image. Last season's image tends to have more dark areas, which typically represent drier soil or less vigorous vegetation. Northern Morocco appears to have the densest (because of the dominant red tones) and hence probably the healthiest vegetation of the three countries for the current growing season.
Caveats: This year and last year are both drought years and the comparisons are strictly relative. A normal year or average year should appear much redder than either year. Also, the latest image is from a newer NOAA AVHRR sensor so there are some system differences to account for when comparing between the two images.
Maps:
Percent Soil Moisture Levels Maybe the best indicator of soil conditions during the critical period and what to expect for harvest.
Subsurface Moisture Levels Currently most important for looking at Algeria and Tunisia as crops are still in the reproductive stages.
Surface Moisture Levels Probably not as important as the season winds down and crops in Morocco are in grain fill, but it shows where the most recent rainfall has occurred.
Seasonal Temperatures (Celsius): Again, above average across the board.
Miscellaneous:
Last year's "pocket" of rain over eastern Algeria/Tunisia (notice how well it had developed by March)
View past update from February 15
Current weather in northwest Africa
For more information, please contact Bryan Purcell with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0138. email: purcell@fas.usda.gov
