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March 15, 2001
Summary:
Warm temperatures and below normal snow
coverage in Central Anatolia may pressure Turkey's wheat
yields. Iran experienced planting conditions that were much
improved over the past two years, but dryness over the winter may
limit yield potential.
A Warm Dry Winter in Turkey:
Wheat and barley production prospects in Turkey are poorer than
last year due to warm and dry winter weather conditions. Snow
coverage was below normal in the Central Anatolia region of
Turkey due to warm temperatures and below normal
precipitation. Temperatures were well above normal during
the months of January, February, and early March (refer to temperature departure maps and
temperature
time-series graphs). These warm weather conditions are
expected to reduce winter hardiness and yields in Central
Anatolia region, where about 40 percent of wheat and barley are
grown. Precipitation accumulations from October 1, 2000 -
March 10, 2001 are also below normal in central Turkey as shown
in Figure 1.
Figure 1. Percent Normal Precipitation from Oct. 1, 2000-Mar. 10, 2001
Mixed Outlook for Iran, Iraq, and Syria:
Most of Iran received above normal rainfall last year after
planting the winter wheat crop in late September and early
October. However, rainfed wheat and barley regions of western
Iran received below normal precipitation during the past several
months (refer to rainfall
distribution graphs).
Rainfall in Iraq and Syria have been near to above normal from
October 2000-February 2001. The 2001/02 grain prospects for Syria
are favorable due to these good rains. However, the 2001/02 grain
outlook for Iraq remains uncertain due to lingering effects of
two consecutive droughts and scarce availability of agricultural
inputs.
For more information, contact Curt Reynolds with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division at (202) 690-0134 or e-mail ReynoldsC@fas.usda.gov.
