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July 24, 2001
Harvested grain area in parts of Honduras and Nicaragua will be significantly lower than originally anticipated for the 2001 crop season, as insufficient moisture has rendered some planted area unproductive and likely will cut along a corridor roughly from yields. Dryness likely will lower total production in central Honduras, the north coast city La Ceiba, southward through Nicaragua to the south coast city of Leon. This "corridor of dryness" includes important corn, sorghum, and rice fields in Honduras (Yoro, Comayagua, Francisco Morazan, Valle, and Choluteca) and Nicaragua (Nueva Segovia, Jinotega, Madriz, Esteli, Matagalpa, Leon, Boaco, and Chontales).
Nicaragua and Honduras needed normal rainfall during the May/October 2001 monsoon for producers with limited access to water storage facilities to attain food self-sufficiency, or to have a surplus that could be sold or traded for other foodstuffs. Since April 2001, rainfall accumulations were short of normal, and in several areas there was inadequate rainfall for healthy plant development. A similar "corridor of dryness" damaged crops the preceding two years. Rainfall in early June and early July 2001 temporarily eased moisture stress, but overall, plant development has been delayed.
Food security in these areas will likely deteriorate as the crop year advances, especially in areas where small producers grow grains for personal consumption. In some departments (states), grain area likely will drop as fields are abandoned. Yield losses can also be expected. The likely outcome will include not only a smaller volume of grain, but possibly grain with reduced nutritional value. Smaller producers who rely on cash-and-carry markets to distribute their goods, such as the vegetable stands in the departments of Matagalpa and Jinotega in Nicargaua, will feel the earliest effects of the dryness, as will their customers. Local irrigation sources were low at the beginning of the crop season, making small-to-medium size producers of carrots, onions, tomatoes, cucumbers, peppers, and others such goods, rainfall dependent. Additionally, the coffee industry is plagued with low prices, resulting in higher local unemployment.
Mid-July to mid-August is the traditional time of the canicula, or mini-dry season. In years when plant development has been delayed by environmental factors or when fields were planted late, the canicula is a disruptive --but not a killing-- agent. This year’s substandard rainy season will magnify the canicula's effect on 2001 crops. Conditions will worsen if the canicula is drier and hotter than normal, or extends itself beyond the customary 5-6 week window.
The progression of the annual monsoon across Central America is reflected in the regional "green up," as vegetation growth is stimulated by abundant moisture and rising temperatures. The delayed arrival and uneven rainfall distribution characterizing recent monsoons has resulted in less vegetative vigor early in the growing season, as seen in the maps below. (Note: the red color represents areas of vegetation, with color intensity corresponding to plant vigor.) A comparison of AVHRR products for 2000 and 2001 indicates that both natural and planted vegetative canopy was more extensive this year than last, yet the overall impact of the current dryness suggests crop damage may approach that of 2000.
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For more information, contact Ron White with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0137.
