July 16, 2001

Heavy Rains Hampering Early Harvesting in Northern Balkans

Summary
Eastern Europe received widespread rainfall during the month of June, causing disruptions to winter crop harvesting activities in the Balkans. Significant rain was needed to recharge low soil moisture levels still suffering from last season’s severe drought, but the much anticipated precipitation was excessive. Despite the poor harvest conditions, the northern Balkans' winter grain production will be well above last year’s dismal output. In addition, the recent heavy rains should boost prospects for the spring-planted corn and sunflower crops.

Harvest Schedule
Early harvesting will experience delays after rainfall in excess of two hundred percent of normal occurred during the month of June across the breadbasket region of Vojvodina in northern Serbia, as well as adjacent areas of Romania, Hungary, Bosnia, and Romania. Rains continued into July, adding to the saturation. Flooding has been reported in some areas, and wheat quality is likely diminishing with the additional moisture.

Harvesting activities should be underway in most of the southern Balkans, while further north (Hungary and northward) threshing should begin shortly. Bulgaria missed the bulk of the heavy precipitation, so harvesting should be proceeding on schedule there. The northern countries of Poland, Czech Republic, and Slovakia have seen favorable weather throughout the season, improving yield prospects.

Cumulative precipitation in Vojvodina, the main agricultural region of Serbia, shows a steep increase during June, when totals were already above normal levels.

The hot dry season that occurred last year advanced crops more rapidly than the normal temperatures this season. In addition, persistent rains will likely lengthen the harvesting period of winter wheat.this season. Crop progress (winter wheat) as of July 1:

Vegetation Healthier Than Last Year
AVHRR satellite imagery shows a much better picture for vegetation vigor in the second half of June 2001 than it did at the same time last year, when a major regional drought gripped the area. Last year, AVHRR imagery in late June 2000 shows many large blue patches, indicating dry soils and relatively unhealthy vegetation. In contrast, the June 2001 image shows deeper reds, an indication of healthy vegetation, and the blue areas, corresponding to locations with less plant biomass, are not as dominant.

Cumulative precipitation during the month of June shows twice the normal monthly June precipitation over Serbia and adjacent areas.

Current Weather in Eastern Europe

For more information, please contact Bryan Purcell with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0138. email: purcellb@fas.usda.gov