March 26, 2001

Second Dry Season for India's Wheat Area

Summary:
Wheat growing conditions in India are slightly less favorable than last season. However, heavy use of inputs was a key factor behind last year's record yields, and will again be a crucial determinant of wheat productivity this season.

(Go to Data and Graphics supporting this crop condition assessment)

Wheat Regions Experiences Second Dry Season:
Precipitation data for Indian wheat areas reveal a second very dry season. Rainfall amounts in wheat producing areas are lower for the period October 15 through March 20 compared with the previous two seasons. For all major producing states, rabi season rainfall accumulation is significantly below normal. Assured irrigation is available in most states for a sizeable portion of the crop, though the remaining wheat area is strictly dependent on soil moisture and precipitation. Last season experienced a similarly dry precipitation pattern, but resulted in a record 75 million ton wheat crop.

Drought conditions, similar to last year, have prevailed in Gujarat this season. Wheat area in Rajasthan is reported to have decreased, a result of insufficient moisture at planting. Temperature patterns are slightly more favorable this season for Rajasthan as compared to last season. Madhya Pradesh wheat areas have endured a second season of exceptionaly low precipitation. Maharastra growing conditions are generally favorable; the precipitation pattern continues to be below normal, though actual amounts and distribution are sufficient to support favorable wheat production.

However, Irrigated Area Predominates:
The northern wheat belt, comprising the states Haryana, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh, account for a sizable portion of India's total wheat output. These areas tend to have higher irrigation levels. However, up to 20 percent of Uttar Pradesh wheat is estimated to be rainfed. This season's drier conditions will negatively impact yields. Whereas irrigation is mostly assured, crops have experienced favorable growing conditions with significant sunshine and cool temperature regime. Similar to last year, cooler-than-average temperatures extended from emergence through the critical flowering period in February.

Upward Production Trend:
Overall India has shown a strong trend of increasing wheat yields in recent years. Several factors converged last season to produce a record crop: an area increase; cool temperatures during the flowering stage; and, increased fertilizer use by many farmers. For 2001/02 wheat, both area and fertilizer use will likely be below last year.

For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, Center for Remote Sensing Analysis at (202) 690-0135.