|
|
|
|
|
|
CURRENT SITUATION REPORT: 2001/02 INDIAN WHEAT CROP
Summary:
Lower year-to-year production is likely this season due to dry
conditions in rainfed regions, reduced fertilizer use, and
marginal irrigation supplies in some areas. However, prospects
for lower yields in rainfed areas will be somewhat offset by
increased yield potential arising from cooler temperatures in
both irrigated and rainfed growing areas.
(Go to Data and Graphics supporting this crop condition assessment)
Planting and Emergence Conditions:
Sowing of the Indian 2001/02 wheat crop began in November 2000
and harvest will commence in April 2001. The rabi season began
with less than ideal conditions. Lower soil moisture levels began
with a dry September at the start of the season, and continued
into the optimal planting window of
mid-October to mid-December. The drier soil conditions
likely resulted in an area decline as farmers waited for planting
rains, which failed to materialize. In
the largely irrigated states of Punjab, Haryana, and West Uttar
Pradesh, however, planting was unlikely to be affected.
The dry start to the season was further exacerbated by continued dryness through February in most areas. Most irrigated crops should do well if temperatures and pest pressure remain low. Dry-land crops are currently experiencing moisture stress. About 80 percent of India's wheat crop receives some irrigation and is concentrated in the larger producing areas. The irrigated wheat crop may experience a shortage of water due to the weak 2000 monsoon. Tanks and reservoirs in some areas are currently at reduced storage levels as a result of the dry September. The limited water supplies will be further pressured as irrigation demands rise later in the season, especially as temperatures increase. The areas more dependent on reservoirs and tanks are located in in the states of Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Maharastra.
Effects of Low Rainfall:
Rainfall throughout the wheat producing areas is
significantly lower for the period October 15 through February 1
compared the previous two seasons. In the few rainfed wheat areas
where soil moisture was sufficient for planting, young shoots
have had a difficult time establishing and continuing healthy
growth. Where soil moisture was insufficient, reduced plantings
are evident, particularly in the states of Rajasthan, Gujarat,
Madhya Pradesh, and Maharastra. However, Rajasthan should fair
better than its neighbors given its higher level of irrigated
wheat area, (roughly 95 percent). Gujarat usually irrigates
approximately 80 percent of its wheat. In Maharastra, with only
69 percent of the crop irrigated, both the amount and
distribution of rainfall appears to show a noticeable improvement
over last season. The Madhya Pradesh wheat region has experienced
continuous dry conditions since November, sharply reducing
rainfed crop production prospects. In all these states,
availability of irrigation reserves remains a concern, as the
cumulative effect of repeat weak monsoons has depleted both
surface and tank irrigation reserves.
Reduced Fertilizer Use:
Escalating energy costs have resulted in higher world prices
for fertilizers. For many farmers in India this will probably
result in lower use and reduced yields. This is in stark contrast
to the 2000/01 Indian wheat season which had farmers increasing
fertilizer applications, in many cases by as much as 50 percent
over the prior year's level.
On the positive side - cooler temperatures:
All major wheat producing regions have experienced cooler
temperatures this growing season, reducing water requirements for
crops, and potentially extending irrigation supplies. Continued
cooler temperatures throughout the season will increase yield
potential, if the minimum water requirements can be met.
For more information, contact Jim Crutchfield with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division on (202) 690-0135 or by e-mail at crutchfieldj@fas.usda.gov.
