November 13, 2003

Russia:  Lower Area, Good Conditions for Winter Grains

Russia's winter grain area for 2004/05 is likely to drop roughly 5 percent from last year, but sown area increased slightly in the Southern District -- the country's most important winter wheat region -- and current winter crop conditions are good throughout the country. 

Winter grain planting got off to a slow start this year due to persistent rainfall in Russia's Central and Volga districts.  (Winter grain sowing in European Russia begins in the northern growing regions in late August and advances southward.)  The pace accelerated during September, but final sown area is forecast to decrease slightly -- from 14.0 million hectares in 2003/04 to approximately 13.2 million this season -- despite higher grain prices.  The U.S. agricultural attaché in Moscow attributes the drop in area to several factors:

• Limited seed reserves following a relatively poor 2003/04 winter grain harvest.  Most farmers use "common" seed, saved from the previous year's harvest, rather than certified seed.
• Frustration over high winterkill losses last season.
• Uncertainty over future prices.
• Time and machinery constraints.  This factor was likely the main reason for the reduction in sown area.  The 2003 harvest campaign got off to a slow start (because of weather-related planting delays and late crop development), and farmers placed a higher priority on harvesting late grain crops than on planting winter grains. 

As indicated by data published by SovEcon, an independent commodity-analysis institute in Moscow, sown area is forecast to shrink in two of the three major winter grain production districts.  In the Volga District, Russia's top grain producing region, and the Central District, winter grain area will likely drop by about 12 percent.  Only in the Southern District, the country's highest-yielding region, is winter grain area forecast to increase, but only slightly.  Winter grains account for roughly 60 percent of total grain area in the Southern District, 45 percent in the Central District, and 30 percent in the Volga District.

Conditions have been quite favorable for winter crop establishment in Russia.  October rainfall increased soil moisture reserves in the Southern District, and subsurface moisture levels are slightly higher than at the same date last year.  Surface moisture is adequate throughout the winter grain region.  Temperatures have been nearly ideal for winter crops in the Volga, Central, and northern Southern Districts as they advance through the hardening phase in preparation to enter dormancy.  

According to data from Russia's State Statistical Committee, winter grains typically comprise about 25 percent of total grain area in Russia but nearly 40 percent of production, due to inherently higher yield potential compared to spring grains.  Wheat is Russia's chief winter grain and is grown on the country's most productive agricultural land.  Rye is more cold-tolerant than wheat and is grown in the more northern, less fertile regions.  A relatively small amount of winter barley is grown in southernmost Russia.  (Spring barley, meanwhile, is one of Russia's major crops and is grown throughout the country.)

For more information, contact Mark Lindeman
  with the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division, at (202) 690-0143