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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
November 19, 2003
USDA/FAS
field crop travel to the Gulf Coast region of Mexico in late October 2003 assessed rice production in Veracruz and Campeche,
two states which account for over half the
area devoted to rice in recent years. USDA 's official forecasts
released November 12, 2003 estimate Mexico's 2003/04 rice production is 171,000
tons, up 15,000, or 10 percent from last year. Area is forecast at 52,000
hectares, down 5,000 or 9 percent from last year. USDA will next release its
official estimates of Mexican rice production on December 11.
Visits with officials from SAGARPA (Secretariat of Agriculture, Livestock, Rural Development Fisheries, and Foodstuffs, which is Mexico's equivalent of the U. S. Department of Agriculture) producers, representatives of producer associations, and other individuals active in the industry, indicated that 2003 output will be an improvement over last year, but still sub-par for these states.
Producers had hoped for better results, following what most recount as a poor year in 2002. The annual monsoon traverses Mexico in a southeast to northwest pattern, beginning in May, and retreats from northwest to southeast, ending in October. The monsoon is usually longest and most consistent across the southern half of Mexico; however, inconsistent rainfall characterized this year and last. Dryness hindered rice development on multiple occasions, as reflected in fluctuating plant vigor. Abandoned fields were seen in Veracruz and Campeche, but were not sufficiently numerous along the travel route to factor into the evaluation. Observers in the affected areas of Veracruz do not expect the heavy rainfall during harvest to significantly reduce the state’s overall production, an opinion that could not be disputed based upon travel observations. The large number of fields in these high production states that had not yet bloomed in late October suggests, assuming typical weather conditions, that there is the opportunity for a near-normal to normal summer production total. There is also the risk of disaster, should temperatures drop uncharacteristically, or should dryness intensify.
State of Veracruz
Rice
is a summer crop in this state. Part of
the annual production comes from communal fields commonly called ejidos.
This
land is titled to the government; however, citizens are historically permitted to
live there and grow crops. These plots of 5 hectares or
less are nominally in rice, but actually devoted to dryland sugarcane
production. When the cane field is plowed, after about 7 years of production,
rice is the popular rotation crop. Rice is grown for a season
or year, whereupon producers revert back to sugarcane, which is said to
return consistently higher income than does rice. The location of fields
involved in rice production is consequently in flux each year, and less than
ideal cultivation practices can equate to a wide range of yields from field to
field. Pesticides are used where available and affordable, but weeds are
prevalent. Planting and harvesting is mostly by machine, but hand-planting is
not uncommon on smaller operations.
The travel route was concentrated in southwest Veracruz, where less than five percent of the rice fields are said to be irrigated. Significant monsoon moisture usually comes in early June, and declines at the end of September. Precipitation during summer 2003 was sporadic throughout the season, according to producers and association representatives, with the greatest accumulation not recorded until October. Concerns about low prices and a lack of water caused some Veracruz producers to delay dryland planting 2-3 weeks until the first week of June, forcing harvest into the unexpectedly heavy October rainfall. Conversely, those unexpected rains were a huge plus for those unable (or unwilling) to plant until July or August. Travelers saw numerous fields of rice stubble in the northernmost areas of the travel route, supporting statements of local SAGARPA officials that most of the fields had already been harvested. Southern fields were later planted and frequently not yet bloomed. Frost was generally said to not be an issue so far south in most years.
Overall, Veracruz state yields were forecast in the range of 3.5 to 4.5 tons/hectare. Travelers only saw a half dozen fields deemed too poor to justify harvesting. If harvested area for the summer crop proves to be a “nothing special” 25,000 hectares, then a 4.5-tons/hectare-yield results in an equally unspectacular (by Veracruz standards) 112,500 tons. Note that Post-Mexico City ‘s Grain and Feed Annual (GAIN Report MX3028 dated 3/28/2003) stated that its sources expected Mexico to maintain its 4.5 average national yield in 2003/04, with Veracruz doing slightly better.
An established Federal Government incentive program is intended to encourage production by providing low cost rice seeds of an Asian variety, frequently from the Philippines. This was the first year the government did not establish a price to be paid to producers at harvest, according to some growers; others expected the announcement of a base price within a week or two.
One
region of
Veracruz, Tres Valles, shows slightly better conditions. Fields were slightly larger and in
better condition. Dryness caused many to
plant in July and August, so fields benefited from the October rainfall. SAGARPA officials placed the harvest at 50 percent complete at time of travel.
Total area here has declined the last four years due to inadequate rainfall; all
of the rice here is grown under dryland conditions. Seventy percent of the
producers here work ejido fields of an average 5 hectares. Non-ejido fields
average about 7 hectares.
State of Campeche
The largest and most productive fields were said to be in
the far southwest municipality of Palizada, which shares a state border with
Tabasco. Planting and harvesting is mechanized; producers who don’t own find
rental equipment readily (if not inexpensively) available from helpful neighbors
or producer associations.
Rice has two distinct cycles in Campeche: main-season planting is August/September, with the harvest in December/January; the smaller season planting is December/January, with harvest in May. The May harvest was said to provide less than 10 percent of the state’s annual output in most years. As of October, state officials indicated that 19,400 hectares had been planted since January 1, 2003, an acceptable figure according to producers encountered during crop travel. Those same producers anticipate yields of 3-4 tons per hectare from the December/January harvest. A 3.5 yield equates to 67,900 tons for the calendar year (the FAS crop year for Mexico rice begins with spring planting, ends with winter harvest), also acceptable to producers given the unfortunate circumstances.
Palizada fields as a group appeared larger and cleaner than
those observed in Veracruz, in part because they were only weeks from being
planted. Fallow rice fields were more commonplace than in Veracruz, supporting
the rumor that new rice area is quietly being added to the state's total despite
complaints of disincentives. Several producers said this year was the worst ever
for rice in terms of weather; recent years have been bad enough that
sorghum has followed rice for an increasing number of producers because sorghum
handles dryness better than rice. The local sorghum market may soon be
saturated, leaving producers searching for another good alternative. Conversion
to pasture is another noticeable trend in rice.
