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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
November 22, 2003
Excessive rainfall from August through October 2003 caused major problems for China’s 2003/04 summer crops, especially cotton. The unprecedented rainfall (more than 200 percent above normal in some areas) was in stark contrast to the situation in fall 2002 and 2001, when northern China experienced severe drought. Rainfall graphs clearly indicate that the heaviest amounts since August 1 were recorded in Henan, one of China’s most important agricultural provinces, although every province in the region was wetter than normal for the period. Locally serious flooding was reported along the Wei River in Shanxi province and the Yellow River in Henan and Shandong provinces. Intermittent dry and warm periods (particularly after October 15) allowed for summer crop harvesting and winter crop planting to eventually take place, but fieldwork progress was much slower than normal (up to 20 days behind schedule) and soils remained unusually wet through the end of October.
The wet weather in fall 2003 hit cotton hard; heavy rain arrived just as the bolls were opening and harvest was getting
underway. Summer grains and oilseeds (corn, sorghum, soybeans, and
peanuts) were nearly mature when the heavy rain occurred. Therefore, less
vulnerable to damage. There were few reports of grain or oilseed production losses from
excessive rainfall, although the moisture content of the harvested grain was
expected to be higher than normal and quality may have been compromised. The
2004/05 winter wheat crop was affected in several ways. Late maturity and
harvesting of the 2003/04 summer crops prevented farmers from planting their winter
wheat on schedule. Flooding in the Wei and Yellow River valleys directly
affected prime winter wheat cropland, and the excessive wetness may have
hindered fieldwork in some areas and destroyed some of the of the newly-planted wheat
crop. In contrast, soil moisture across northern China is adequate to
abundant for wheat germination and development, unlike the extremely dry
conditions of last year. High
water levels in the region’s lakes,
rivers, and reservoirs will ensure good irrigation supplies next spring.
Rain, snow, and much colder
temperatures spread across northern China in the first week of November, ending
nearly three weeks of clear and mild weather. Light to moderate snow (up to 7 inches) covered parts of Shanxi, Hebei,
Shandong, and Inner Mongolia, boosting soil moisture levels for the emerging/tillering
winter wheat crop. Moderate rain in Anhui, Jiangsu, and Hubei improved soil
moisture supplies for the newly-planted 2004/05 winter wheat and rapeseed crops
but may have caused additional damage to any unharvested cotton. Finally,
recent satellite imagery (October 22) indicates that flooding had not abated
along the Wei and Yellow Rivers, so farmers in those areas will be
unable to plant a winter crop this year.
China’s 2003/04 cotton crop suffered significant yield losses due to excessive rainfall this year. Examples of low boll counts, boll shedding, wilting, late development, pests and diseases, and low quality were widely reported. Some of the most serious yield losses were in Henan, one of China’s most important cotton-growing provinces. Crops in parts of Shandong and Hebei provinces were also damaged by the unfavorable autumn weather. According to recent crop surveys, yields are down 10 to 50 percent from last year in most cotton-producing areas. Only Xinjiang, Gansu, and cotton areas south of the Yangtze River are forecasting near-normal yields in 2003/04. Harvesting and procurement started 10 to 20 days behind schedule this year, but mostly dry and warm weather since mid-October has accelerated harvest progress.
As
of November 12, 2003, USDA forecast China’s 2003/04 cotton production
at 22.0 million bales (4.79 million tons), down 3.5 million or 14 percent from
last month, and down 3 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 5.1 million
hectares, unchanged from last month, but up 22 percent from a year ago. High
prices for the 2002/03 crop and rising cotton demand encouraged farmers to
expand cotton area in 2003. Cotton area increased in all provinces, with the
largest year-to-year area increase in the North China Plain (up 20 to 30
percent). The 2003/04 forecast yield of 939 kilograms per hectare is down 20
percent from last year’s record yield and the lowest since 1996/97.
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