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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
May 27, 2003
Russian winter grain prospects for 2003/04 are significantly worse than last year due to a drop in sown area, above-average winterkill, and cool spring weather. The late spring also delayed the launch of the spring sowing campaign, although planting progress accelerated during May and is now in line with the average pace. On May 12, 2003, USDA released estimates of 2003/04 Russian grain production at 66.7 million tons (against 86.6 million last year), including 36.0 (50.6) million wheat, 15.0 (18.7) million barley, 5.0 (7.2) million rye, 6.0 (5.7) million oats, 1.2 (1.6) million corn, 0.5 (0.3) million millet, 0.3 (0.3) million rice, and 2.5 (2.2) million pulses and miscellaneous grains. USDA reports and field travel confirmed this initial assessment of Russia's production potential for 2003/04.
Russian farmers planted approximately 14.4 million hectares of winter grains for 2003/04, and slightly over 20 percent of this crop area was destroyed by inclement winter weather, according to data from SovEcon, an independent agricultural research institute in Moscow. Although the damage was not nearly as high in Russia as in Ukraine, where nearly 60 percent of winter grains were lost, winterkill in Russia was considerably above average and will have a significant effect on output.
Satellite-derived vegetative indices, and Landsat imagery from Volgograd, Rostov, and Krasnodar (three oblasts in Russia's key Southern District), illustrates the impact of the above-average winterkill and the late spring development of winter crops due to cool April weather. Crop conditions have been consistently poorer than last year in all four grain-producing oblasts in the Southern District.
As of May 26, Russian farmers had planted 28.4 million hectares of spring grains of a planned total of 33.0 million, according to a Ministry of Agriculture spokesman. Although spring grain area is slated to approach last year's level of 33.2 million hectares, total grain area is likely to fall from last year because of the lower winter grain area. USDA estimates total Russian grain area 2003/04 at 44.7 (against 47.6 million last year), including 22.5 (25.7) million wheat and 10.5 (10.3) million barley.
