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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
May 15, 2003
Heavy rains have caused flooding in the agricultural provinces of Santa Fe and Entre Rios of Argentina. Unusually high precipitation throughout the last weeks in tandem with a poor infrastructure caused the Salado River to flood its banks and has flooded agricultural land in northern Santa Fe Province. Some estimates are as high as 2 of the 12 million total agricultural hectares are under water.
USDA forecasts Argentina’s 2002/03 soybean production remains a record 35.0 million tons, unchanged from last month and up 17 percent from last season’s output of 30.0 million. Harvested area is forecast at a record 12.5 million hectares, unchanged from last month and up 10 percent from last season. Yield is forecast at 2.80 MT/Ha, matching the record yield of 1997/98. However, in its statistical release on may 12, USDA left the current soybean estimate unchanged.
Week-long downpours caused a two-meter rise in the Salado River, causing localized flooding which is, according to the Argentine Agrarian Federation, the worst of the Santa Fe province’s history. According to the federation, two out of 12 million hectares under production in the region are flooded. The heavy rains at the end of April—200 percent of normal—came at the end of a season of above-normal rainfall. The abundant rains during the season have led to record soybean yields in Argentina. The rains at the end of the season have led to delays in harvesting this bumper crop.
Soybean harvest progress reached 62 percent complete as of May 2, 2003, above last year’s pace, and the fastest in the last four years until the heavy rains. The downpour caught first-crop soybean harvesting at the end of the season and has severely slowed the second-crop soybean harvest, which was in the middle of the season. The damage to the soybean crop that was not yet harvested is difficult to quantify. The Argentine secretariat of Agriculture reports that on 200,000 hectares 400,000 tones of soybeans and 200,000 tons of corn and sorghum have been destroyed. On another flooded 200,000 hectares with soybeans, corn, and sorghum, harvesting will be attempted. Grain farmers are concerned that grain marked for sale may have to be held back and used as cattle feed due to the majority of the grasslands used for grazing being under water. Although there are no precise figures, farming groups estimate that 70 percent of the soybean harvest in affected areas has not been completed.
The flooding is in a minor soybean-producing area of northern Santa Fe Province—the delegations of Avellaneda and Rafaela. These two delegations have under a million hectares of soybeans. Recent satellite imagery shows flooding in Avellandea and Rafaela delegations, especially the central part of those two delegations. The heavy rains in Avellaneda delegation have caused delays in soybean harvesting which had reached 23 percent as of May 2. In Rafaela delegation, first-crop soybean harvesting was further along, having reached 57 percent complete. The heavy rains, however, have delayed second-crop soybean harvesting which had only reached 5 percent complete as of May 2, 2003. The soybean area at risk is estimated to be approximately 0.23 million hectares with a production potential of 0.45 million tons. This represents less than 2 percent of Argentina's crop. It is believed that with return of drier weather some of this area will be harvested with minor reductions in yield. Soybean losses are estimated around 100,000 tons.
