April 2, 2003

Northwest Africa: Abundant Winter Precipitation

Translates Into High Spring Soil Moisture

Plentiful Rains; Abundant Soil Moisture

Rainfall this crop season has been much higher than normal in Northwest Africa since the start of fall planting. The increase in seasonal precipitation has created the best soil moisture conditions for Northwest Africa as a whole in many years.  In a region with frequent droughts, vegetation growth this season has been aided by frequent and timely rainfall.  

Last Year: Problems and Highlights

Of the three Northwest African countries, Tunisia has seen the most dramatic change since last season.  A severe drought greatly diminished Tunisia's 2002/03 crop to one of its lowest on record, harvesting only 500,000 tons of wheat and barley. Tunisia's combined winter grains, five-year average production is 1.5 million tons.  In addition to Tunisia's sub-par harvest last year, Algeria also had a poor crop.  Algeria's 2002/03 season yielded just 1.1 million tons of wheat, quite low when compared to its 1.4 million ton five-year average.  While Tunisia had a dismal season and Algeria also a disappointing harvest, Morocco produced 3.3 million tons of wheat (600,000 tons above average).

High Expectations

This year,  Morocco and Algeria may possibly have larger harvests than last year because of the sustained increase in precipitation.  Only southern Morocco has seen less rainfall when compared with last year, but recent March precipitation should greatly improve conditions. Meanwhile, the central and northern sections of Morocco, the major grain regions, have had very good rainfall since autumn and should be in excellent condition as they progress through the water-dependent reproductive growth stage.   FAS-Rabat reported in March that abundant early season rainfall encouraged more farmers to plant and provided adequate conditions for winter grain emergence and early development.  At this point, having rainfall occur in early April will be key to maintaining yields.  Harvest in North Africa takes place during May, June, and July, with Morocco's harvest typically beginning first.  USDA will release its first forecast of 2003/04 grain production for North Africa and the world on May 12, 2003.  Because of the additional precipitation, reservoirs are also better charged with water than last year.

DATA:       

* Crop production in Northwest Africa is highly dependent upon the timing and amount of rainfall.

*Note: If comparing 8 year production totals (above) with 8 year rainfall graphs (below), remember that the rainfall year represents the beginning of the planting season, one year before the start of the marketing season. For example: 2001 precipitation fell between September 2001 and August 2002 and is responsible for the grains produced for the 2002/03 marketing season.

Reference:

Northwest Africa Reference Map

For more information, contact Bryan Purcell
of the Production Estimates and Crop Assessment Division at (202) 690 - 0138