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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
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Production
Estimates and Crop Assessment Division |
March 17, 2003
An USDA/FAS crop assessment team was sent to South Africa's Maize Triangle during the last week of February to assess 2002/03 crop conditions. Corn was the main crop surveyed, and the crop tour route covered both the eastern and western regions of the Maize Triangle, as shown in Figure 1.
Figure 1. South Africa Crop Tour Route within the Maize Triangle
In general, the corn crop in the low-yielding west was observed to be near- to below-average, while the corn crop in the high-yielding east was below-average, due to below normal rainfall for the entire season. Both regions experienced a difficult crop season because plantings were delayed 2-4 weeks to mid-December, heat stress occurred during late January, and low soil moisture reserves were observed during early February (summary weather and NDVI data).
Local reports and field observations for the 2002/03 season, supported by rainfall and NDVI data (summary weather and NDVI data), include:
Reservoir levels are lower than last year for most regions and corresponding yields may be lower for all provinces with dryland crops.
Kwazulu-Natal province's crops experienced soil moisture stress during flowering stage and reduced yields are expected compared to last year.
Mpumalanga province was severely affected by below normal rainfall and reduced yields are expected near Delmas and Wonderfontein regions.
The eastern portion of Free State was affected by below normal rainfall and reduced yields are expected in Bethelem and Marquard regions.
Northwest province crops were affected by late plantings, heat stress during late-January, and soil moisture stress in early-February. Stalk bore, which will slightly reduce yields and quality, also was reported and treated in most fields near the Lichtenburg region. Crop conditions east of Lichtenburg are good, but reduced yields are expected in Leeudoingstad and Mareestane regions.
Limpopo province experienced below-normal rainfall for the entire season, and lower-than-normal crop yields are expected, as well as crop failures
It appears all major agricultural inputs were readily available to farmers and no major pests or disease problems were reported or observed. Reports indicate that short-season cultivars were planted in the west due to delayed rainfall; these short-season cultivars are typically lower yielding in comparison to medium- to long-season varieties. Many short-season seeds have not been tested under drought conditions and they may not perform well under such a difficult growing season.
A near-record level ratio of white to yellow corn (67/33 percent) was planted this year. Prices for white corn, in comparison to yellow, are no longer at premium levels. These recent price trends indicate too much white corn will be produced this year.
Figure 2. NDVI Anomaly (Vegetation Condition) for February 2003
Related Weather Links
Summary 2002/03 Weather and NDVI for South Africa's Maize Triangle
Crop Explorer for Southern Africa
Average First Date of Heavy Frost in South Africa
